# AAOI Full forecast · Q3 2026

> The forecast for Applied Optoelectronics: the next two quarters line by line, three years of sales and EPS, a low and a high case. Next report: Q3 2026 on 5 November after the close.

Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/aaoi/fq3-2026/forecast/

cutoff 5 November 2026, 12:27 ET

The forecast for Applied Optoelectronics: the next two quarters line by line, three years of sales and EPS, a low and a high case. Next report: Q3 2026 on 5 November after the close.

[Quarter forecast →](https://pricedin.markets/aaoi/fq3-2026/preview/)

AAOI · as of 2026-11-05 12:27:28 ET · 7 AI analysts · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10

## Sales and earnings outlook

Next quarter · Q3 2026

Sales $272M +130% on Q3 2025

Adjusted EPS $0.19 −311% on Q3 2025

#### Investment and cash generation

Base case

Capital spending **$380M**

Free cash flow **−$420M**

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

- **Spending buys 800-gigabit and 1.6-terabit transceiver lines, laser fabrication tools in Texas and building fit-out, which add capacity for the fourth quarter and 2027 rather than this quarter's sales. On the basis of operating cash flow less capital spending, base free cash flow is −$420M on capital spending of $380M, as receivables and inventory grow with the ramp. Analyst D's capital spending is lowest, at $160M. Equipment prepayments sit outside this measure. *3 of 7***
  - **Analyst F** I put property and equipment purchases at $300 million in the third quarter and $350 million in the fourth, on top of the $335 million already spent in the first half.
  - **Analyst G** Free cash flow here is operating cash flow less positive cash property-and-equipment purchases, consistent with the opening sheet.
  - **Analyst C** forecast: working capital scales with the rapid ramp toward Q4

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- Three years of sales and earnings per share, each with its low and high case, the seven analysts' own numbers and the story
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