RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-6281-20260819T064625694543Z
Fiscal 2026 Q3 (quarter ended August 1, 2026), reports August 19 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-19T06:05:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q2 FY26 revenue (3 months ended 2026-05-02)
3,623.465
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000041
Q2 FY26 GAAP net income
1,176.35
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000041
Q2 FY26 diluted shares (millions)
490.458
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000041
Q2 FY26 R&D expense
509.323
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000041
Q2 FY26 SG&A expense
362.81
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000041
Q2 FY26 adjusted diluted EPS / results summary (adj GM 73.0%, adj OM 49.0%)
3.09
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Q3 FY26 guidance: revenue midpoint ($B 3.9 +/-0.1), reported OM 39.0%, adj OM 49.0%, reported EPS 2.60, adj EPS 3.30
3,900
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
Quarterly dividend declared per share (paid Jun 16, 2026)
1.1
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000018
Cash and equivalents at 2026-05-02
2,436.916
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000057
Total assets at 2026-05-02
47,949.095
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000057
Total shareholders' equity at 2026-05-02
33,742.033
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000057
Retained earnings at 2026-05-02
11,525.998
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000057
Six-month FY26 operating cash flow
2,240.556
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000077
Six-month FY26 amortization of intangibles (cash flow)
770.593
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000077
Q1 FY26 results summary: revenue 3,160 / adjusted EPS 2.46 / CFO 1,369
2.46
0000006281-26-000015 · 0000006281-26-000015:adi1q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000012
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,880 | 4,000 | +38.9% |
| Cost of sales | 1,091 | 1,280 | +17.4% |
| Gross margin ✓ | 1,790 | 2,720 | +52.0% |
| Research and development | 454 | 536 | +18.0% |
| Selling, marketing, general and administrative | 326 | 378 | +16.1% |
| Amortization of intangibles | 187 | 180 | -4.0% |
| Special charges, net | 4 | 6 | +38.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 972 | 1,100 | +13.2% |
| Operating income ✓ | 818 | 1,620 | +98.0% |
| Interest expense | 80 | 82 | +3.0% |
| Interest income | -27 | -27 | -0.3% |
| Other, net | 2 | 2 | -5.2% |
| Total nonoperating expense (income) ✓ | 55 | 57 | +4.4% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 763 | 1,563 | +104.7% |
| Provision for income taxes | 245 | 189 | -22.9% |
| Net income ✓ | 519 | 1,374 | +165.0% |
| Shares used to compute diluted EPS | 497 | 489 | -1.6% |
| Diluted earnings per common share ✓ | 1.04 | 2.81 | +170.2% |
Bridge: net income 1,374 + acquisition_related_expenses_incl_intangible_amortization 388 + special_charges_net 6 + tax_related_items -71 = non-GAAP net income 1,697 ÷ 489M shares = 3.47 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 519 | 1,374 |
| Depreciation | 103 | 108 |
| Amortization of intangibles | 385 | 385 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 85 | 92 |
| Deferred income taxes | 52 | 0 |
| Other | -6 | -5 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | 28 | -450 |
| Total adjustments ✓ | 647 | 130 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 1,165 | 1,504 |
| Purchases of short-term available-for-sale investments | -1,150 | -100 |
| Additions to property, plant and equipment, net | -79 | -155 |
| Other investing activities | -1 | -10 |
| Net cash used for investing activities ✓ | -1,230 | -265 |
| Proceeds from debt | 1,491 | 0 |
| Proceeds from commercial paper notes | 2,551 | 2,500 |
| Payments of commercial paper notes | -2,551 | -2,500 |
| Repurchase of common stock | -1,075 | -750 |
| Dividend payments to shareholders | -490 | -538 |
| Proceeds from employee stock plans | 43 | 45 |
| Other financing activities | 42 | -20 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities ✓ | 10 | -1,263 |
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | -55 | -24 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,437 | 2,413 |
| All other assets (residual) | 45,512 | 45,599 |
| Total assets ✓ | 47,949 | 48,012 |
| Total liabilities | 14,207 | 14,050 |
| Retained earnings | 11,526 | 12,362 |
| Common stock, capital in excess of par and AOCI (residual) | 22,216 | 21,600 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 33,742 | 33,962 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late October 2026) | 4,250 | 4,000–4,450 | 3.70 | 68.2% | 41.4% | -170 | 1,580 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late January 2027) | 4,330 | 4,050–4,550 | 3.80 | 68.7% | 41.9% | -180 | 1,670 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early May 2027) | 4,420 | 4,050–4,700 | 3.92 | 68.7% | 42.0% | -190 | 1,510 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late July or early August 2027) | 4,500 | 3,950–4,850 | 4.00 | 68.7% | 42.0% | -200 | 1,600 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending late October 2026) | 15,030 | 14,850–15,300 | 12.72 | 12.45–13.10 | -572 | 4,923 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late October 2027) | 17,850 | 16,200–19,000 | 15.80 | 13.80–17.30 | -770 | 6,430 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late October 2028) | 18,800 | 16,500–20,800 | 16.90 | 13.50–19.50 | -850 | 6,850 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late October 2029) | 19,700 | 17,000–22,200 | 17.90 | 14.00–21.00 | -900 | 7,200 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Q3 FY26 outlook: revenue $3.9B +/-$100M, adjusted OM ~49.0%, adjusted EPS $3.30 +/-$0.15 — with record B2B bookings signaling 'continued strong growth'
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014 and :b0000008 · horizon Q3 FY26
flows into: income_statement.revenue, income_statement.operating_income, bridge.non_gaap_net_income, headline.eps_adjusted
Quarterly dividend raised to $1.10/share, payable June 16, 2026 (inside fiscal Q3)
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000018 · horizon Q3 FY26 and beyond
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy0.cff
Consistent shareholder return: $1.3B returned in Q2 ($5.0B TTM) via dividends and buybacks, consistent with ADI's 100%-of-FCF return framework
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011 · horizon FY26-FY29
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, quarterly_path.fq4_26.cff, horizons.fy1.cff
FCF model: TTM operating cash flow $5.1B (40% of revenue), TTM FCF $4.6B (36%), capex normalized to ~4% of sales post the hybrid-manufacturing buildout
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000004 and :b0000011 · horizon FY26-FY29
flows into: cash_flow.cfo, cash_flow.capex, headline.fcf, horizons.fy1.fcf, horizons.fy2.fcf
Continued investment to 'extend technology performance leadership' — R&D scaling with revenue while adjusted OM holds ~49-50%
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000007 · horizon multi-year
flows into: income_statement.research_development, horizons.fy2.operating_income
Q3 FY26 revenue >= $4.0B with adjusted gross margin >= 73% and Q4 guide midpoint >= $4.2B (cycle + AI comms thesis intact, incremental margins ~70%)
checkable at: Q3 FY26 8-K/press release (~Aug 19-20, 2026)
Q3 FY26 CFO rebounds to >= $1.4B (>=35% of revenue) after the Q2 working-capital dip, keeping FY26 FCF on track for >= $4.8B
checkable at: Q3 FY26 10-Q (Aug/Sep 2026)
FY26 Industrial revenue >= $6.5B and Communications >= $2.2B in the year-end end-market disclosure, confirming breadth beyond AI
checkable at: FY26 Q4 8-K and 10-K (Nov 2025 release cycle, late Nov 2026)
Q3 FY26 revenue < $3.85B or Q4 FY26 revenue guide midpoint < $4.0B (bookings momentum broken)
checkable at: Q3 FY26 8-K/press release
Inventory on the balance sheet up >10% q/q while revenue guide is flat-to-down — sell-in running ahead of consumption near a cyclical peak
checkable at: Q3 FY26 10-Q
Communications end-market revenue down >10% q/q or adjusted operating margin < 47% (AI power/optical digestion plus pricing pressure)
checkable at: Q4 FY26 8-K and end-market trends schedule
FY26 free cash flow < $4.4B (CFO minus capex), i.e., FCF margin < 30%, signaling earnings quality erosion
checkable at: FY26 10-K (Nov/Dec 2026)
What must be true: The FY25-FY26 upcycle must remain demand-led, not inventory-led: record B2B bookings convert into ~10% q/q revenue growth in Q3, industrial capex and AI data-center power/connectivity (comms +79% y/y in Q2) keep utilization high enough to hold adjusted GM at ~73% and adjusted OM ~49-50%, capex stays near 4% of sales so FCF conversion stays at 35-40% of revenue, and ADI keeps returning ~100% of FCF via the $1.10 dividend and ~$750M/quarter buybacks. My FY27+ path assumes the cycle crests gently (mid-single-digit growth by FY28) rather than repeating the 2023-24 -23% bust.
ADI reports fiscal Q3 (ended Aug 1) against a $3.9B +/-$100M revenue guide, ~49% adjusted OM and $3.30 +/-$0.15 adjusted EPS. Setup: the company has beaten its midpoint two straight quarters (+1.9%, +3.5%, the latter above the high end) on record B2B bookings, with Industrial +56% and Comms +79% y/y in Q2 on AI data-center power/connectivity and a broad industrial restock-to-real-demand handoff. We model $4.00B (+39% y/y) and $3.47 adjusted EPS, with adjusted GM ~73% on rising utilization. Three things matter: (1) the Q4 guide — bookings commentary implies ~$4.2B +/-$100M and ~$3.65 adjusted EPS; anything below $4.1B reads as cycle-crest evidence; (2) gross margin trajectory — a 73%+ adjusted GM print validates the fall-through story; (3) cash conversion — Q2 CFO fell to 24% of revenue on working capital; a rebound toward ~$1.5B CFO/$1.35B FCF is needed to keep the 100%-of-FCF return engine ($1.10 dividend, ~$750M buyback) credible. Reaction will be decided by the Q4 guide and any comms/AI order commentary more than the Q3 beat itself, which is largely expected given the pattern. Key risks: AI power digestion, auto softness (only +2% y/y in Q2), and inventory build ahead of consumption. We stay constructive into the print but would fade a guide-up smaller than $200M q/q.
Anchored on Q2 FY26 actuals (revenue $3,623.5M, GAAP GM 67.3%/adj 73.0%, adj OM 49.0%, GAAP EPS $2.40, adj EPS $3.09) and Q3 guidance ($3.9B, 39.0% reported OM, 49.0% adj OM, $2.60/$3.30 EPS). Beat pattern (+1.9%, +3.5% vs midpoint; record bookings) supports a ~$100M revenue beat to $4.0B. P&L: adjusted COGS ~27% of sales plus ~$205M COGS intangible amortization gives GAAP GM $2,720M (68.0%); R&D/SG&A grown ~5%/4% q/q from $509M/$363M; opex amortization ~$180M and ~$6M special charges give operating income $1,620M (40.5%, ~160bp above guide, matching Q2's beat cadence). Nonoperating $57M mirrors Q2 (interest expense ~$82M, interest income $27M). GAAP tax ~12.1% (Q2: 11.2%). NI $1,374M on 489M shares = $2.81; adding back $394M acquisition/special items net of $71M tax gives adjusted NI $1,697M = $3.47. Cash flow: non-cash adds ~$580M (dep $108M, amort $385M, SBC $92M) less ~$450M working-capital build on 10% q/q growth gives CFO ~$1.50B (37.5% of revenue, rebounding from Q2's 24%); capex $155M (TTM ~4% of sales); dividends $538M at the new $1.10 rate; buybacks ~$750M in line with Q2. Balance sheet rolls from May 2: cash ~$2,413M, retained earnings $12,362M, equity ~$33,962M after buybacks net of SBC/ESPP. Forward path assumes the upcycle extends through FY27 at decelerating q/q rates, then mid-single-digit growth in FY28-29 with adjusted OM ~50% and FCF conversion 36-40%; distributions are widened to capture cycle-crest risk on the downside and AI-driven upside.
Sealed as snap-6281-20260819T064625694543Z over corpus manifest 2fe8477b… (400 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-6281-20260819T064625694543Z. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.