RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-6281-20260819T064031284273Z
Fiscal 2026 Q3 (quarter ended August 1, 2026), reports August 19 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-19T06:05:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q2 FY26 Revenue ($M)
3,623
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Q3 FY26 Revenue Outlook Midpoint ($B)
3.9
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
Q2 FY26 Gross Margin ($K)
2,439,798
0000006281-26-000052 · 0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000184
Q1 FY26 Revenue ($M)
3,160
0000006281-26-000015 · 0000006281-26-000015:adi1q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000012
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,880 | 3,940 | +36.8% |
| Cost of sales | 1,091 | 1,225 | +12.3% |
| Gross margin ✓ | 1,790 | 2,715 | +51.7% |
| Research and development | 454 | 535 | +17.8% |
| Selling, marketing, general and administrative | 326 | 375 | +15.1% |
| Amortization of intangibles | 187 | 188 | +0.3% |
| Special charges, net | 4 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 972 | 1,098 | +13.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 818 | 1,617 | +97.7% |
| Interest expense | 80 | 88 | +10.6% |
| Interest income | -27 | -29 | +7.1% |
| Other, net | 2 | -4 | -289.6% |
| Total nonoperating expense (income) ✓ | 55 | 55 | +0.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 763 | 1,562 | +104.6% |
| Provision for income taxes | 245 | 196 | -20.1% |
| Net income ✓ | 519 | 1,366 | +163.5% |
| Shares used to compute diluted EPS | 497 | 488 | -1.8% |
| Diluted earnings per common share ✓ | 1.04 | 2.80 | +169.2% |
Bridge: net income 1,366 + Acquisition-related intangible amortization and fair value adjustments 368 + Tax effect of non-GAAP adjustments -51 = non-GAAP net income 1,684 ÷ 488M shares = 3.45 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 519 | 1,366 |
| Depreciation | 103 | 106 |
| Amortization of intangibles | 385 | 386 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 85 | 83 |
| Deferred income taxes | 52 | -60 |
| Other | -6 | -8 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | 28 | -223 |
| Total adjustments ✓ | 647 | 284 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 1,165 | 1,650 |
| Purchases of short-term available-for-sale investments | -1,150 | 100 |
| Additions to property, plant and equipment, net | -79 | -150 |
| Other investing activities | -1 | -20 |
| Net cash used for investing activities ✓ | -1,230 | -70 |
| Proceeds from debt | 1,491 | 0 |
| Proceeds from commercial paper notes | 2,551 | 3,500 |
| Payments of commercial paper notes | -2,551 | -3,500 |
| Repurchase of common stock | -1,075 | -750 |
| Dividend payments to shareholders | -490 | -536 |
| Proceeds from employee stock plans | 43 | 15 |
| Other financing activities | 42 | 5 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities ✓ | 10 | -1,266 |
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | -55 | 314 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,437 | 2,751 |
| All other assets (residual) | 45,512 | 45,654 |
| Total assets ✓ | 47,949 | 48,405 |
| Total liabilities | 14,207 | 14,500 |
| Retained earnings | 11,526 | 12,356 |
| Common stock, capital in excess of par and AOCI (residual) | 22,216 | 21,549 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 33,742 | 33,905 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late October 2026) | 4,100 | 3,950–4,250 | 3.65 | 69.5% | 42.2% | -160 | 1,590 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late January 2027) | 4,050 | 3,900–4,200 | 3.55 | 69.1% | 41.5% | -160 | 1,490 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early May 2027) | 4,250 | 4,100–4,400 | 3.80 | 70.1% | 42.8% | -170 | 1,630 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late July or early August 2027) | 4,400 | 4,250–4,550 | 4.00 | 70.5% | 43.6% | -175 | 1,725 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending late October 2026) | 14,824 | 14,700–15,000 | 12.68 | 12.40–13.00 | -557 | 5,084 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late October 2027) | 17,200 | 16,500–17,900 | 15.35 | 14.50–16.20 | -680 | 6,520 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late October 2028) | 19,000 | 18,000–20,000 | 17.50 | 16.50–18.50 | -750 | 7,450 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late October 2029) | 20,800 | 19,500–22,000 | 19.80 | 18.50–21.00 | -800 | 8,400 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Return 100% of Free Cash Flow to shareholders over the cycle via dividends and share repurchases
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011 · horizon Long-term capital allocation policy
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.dividends, horizons.fy0.cff, horizons.fy1.cff
Capex discipline targeting ~4-5% of revenue via hybrid manufacturing model
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011 · horizon Annual / Cycle
flows into: cash_flow.capex, quarterly_path.fq4_26.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy1.capex
B2B order book momentum sustaining YoY revenue growth >= 30% and adjusted operating margin >= 49%
checkable at: Q4 FY26 Form 8-K earnings release (Item 2.02)
Industrial segment quarterly revenue reaching or exceeding $1,900M with gross margin expansion > 70%
checkable at: Q4 FY26 Form 10-K (Item 8)
Free cash flow conversion falling below 30% of revenue or operating margin dropping below 45% adjusted
checkable at: Q4 FY26 Form 8-K earnings release (Item 2.02)
Broad-based B2B channel inventory build causing QoQ revenue decline > 5% outside of normal seasonality
checkable at: Q1 FY27 Form 10-Q (Item 2)
What must be true: Analog Devices continues to benefit from secular inflections in industrial automation, intelligent edge processing, and AI datacenter optical/power communications, driving robust utilization in internal fabs and steady operating leverage across gross and operating margins.
Analog Devices enters Q3 FY26 with strong cyclical and secular tailwinds across its core B2B markets. Following record Q2 bookings in Industrial, Automotive, and Communications, demand remains robust, particularly in AI infrastructure power/optical components and industrial instrumentation. We expect Q3 FY26 revenue to modestly exceed the midpoint of guidance ($3.9B) at $3.94B, supported by adjusted gross margins around 73% and adjusted operating margins near 49%. The reaction will hinge on Q4 FY26 guidance and whether management sees continued acceleration in broad industrial bookings into early FY27.
ADI's Q3 FY26 setup reflects strong momentum in industrial automation and communication infrastructure. Operating leverage continues to materialize as fab utilization reaches optimal levels following the inventory digestion cycle of FY24-FY25. Working capital normalizes, allowing FCF generation to track near $1.5B for the quarter.
Sealed as snap-6281-20260819T064031284273Z over corpus manifest 2fe8477b… (400 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-6281-20260819T064031284273Z. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.