RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-6281-20260819T064257309991Z
Fiscal 2026 Q3 (quarter ended August 1, 2026), reports August 19 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-19T06:05:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue
3,623
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Fiscal Q2 2026 GAAP gross margin
2,440
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Fiscal Q2 2026 GAAP operating income
1,380
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Fiscal Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS
2.4
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Fiscal Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS
3.09
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Fiscal Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin percentage
49
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000077
Fiscal Q2 2026 operating cash flow
872
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000064
Fiscal Q2 2026 free cash flow
734
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000084
Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance midpoint
3,900
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
Fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint
3.3
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
Fiscal Q2 2026 Industrial year-over-year growth percentage
56
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000071
Fiscal Q2 2026 Communications year-over-year growth percentage
79
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000071
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,880 | 4,020 | +39.6% |
| Cost of sales | 1,091 | 1,278 | +17.2% |
| Gross margin ✓ | 1,790 | 2,742 | +53.2% |
| Research and development | 454 | 540 | +18.9% |
| Selling, marketing, general and administrative | 326 | 416 | +27.7% |
| Amortization of intangibles | 187 | 188 | +0.3% |
| Special charges, net | 4 | 2 | -62.3% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 972 | 1,146 | +17.9% |
| Operating income ✓ | 818 | 1,596 | +95.1% |
| Interest expense | 80 | 88 | +10.6% |
| Interest income | -27 | -29 | +7.1% |
| Other, net | 2 | 4 | +89.6% |
| Total nonoperating expense (income) ✓ | 55 | 63 | +15.3% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 763 | 1,533 | +100.8% |
| Provision for income taxes | 245 | 194 | -20.7% |
| Net income ✓ | 519 | 1,339 | +158.2% |
| Shares used to compute diluted EPS | 497 | 488 | -1.8% |
| Diluted earnings per common share ✓ | 1.04 | 2.74 | +163.8% |
Bridge: net income 1,339 + acquisition_related_expenses 391 + special_charges_net 0 + tax_effects_on_adjustments -51 = non-GAAP net income 1,679 ÷ 488M shares = 3.44 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 519 | 1,339 |
| Depreciation | 103 | 108 |
| Amortization of intangibles | 385 | 386 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 85 | 85 |
| Deferred income taxes | 52 | -35 |
| Other | -6 | 5 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | 28 | -450 |
| Total adjustments ✓ | 647 | 99 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 1,165 | 1,438 |
| Purchases of short-term available-for-sale investments | -1,150 | -450 |
| Additions to property, plant and equipment, net | -79 | -160 |
| Other investing activities | -1 | 140 |
| Net cash used for investing activities ✓ | -1,230 | -470 |
| Proceeds from debt | 1,491 | 0 |
| Proceeds from commercial paper notes | 2,551 | 220 |
| Payments of commercial paper notes | -2,551 | -20 |
| Repurchase of common stock | -1,075 | -800 |
| Dividend payments to shareholders | -490 | -536 |
| Proceeds from employee stock plans | 43 | 20 |
| Other financing activities | 42 | -5 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities ✓ | 10 | -1,121 |
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | -55 | -153 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,437 | 2,284 |
| All other assets (residual) | 45,512 | 45,916 |
| Total assets ✓ | 47,949 | 48,200 |
| Total liabilities | 14,207 | 14,340 |
| Retained earnings | 11,526 | 12,329 |
| Common stock, capital in excess of par and AOCI (residual) | 22,216 | 21,531 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 33,742 | 33,860 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late October 2026) | 4,110 | 3,920–4,280 | 3.50 | 68.5% | 40.1% | -180 | 1,320 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late January 2027) | 4,050 | 3,830–4,260 | 3.38 | 68.4% | 39.5% | -170 | 1,280 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early May 2027) | 4,250 | 4,000–4,490 | 3.70 | 68.7% | 40.5% | -180 | 1,370 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late July or early August 2027) | 4,450 | 4,160–4,730 | 3.95 | 69.0% | 41.1% | -190 | 1,460 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending late October 2026) | 14,914 | 14,680–15,130 | 12.48 | 11.95–12.85 | -587 | 4,591 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late October 2027) | 17,050 | 15,800–18,150 | 15.40 | 13.80–16.80 | -700 | 5,500 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late October 2028) | 18,500 | 16,300–20,700 | 17.00 | 14.30–19.60 | -780 | 6,020 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late October 2029) | 20,000 | 16,900–23,200 | 18.70 | 14.80–22.30 | -850 | 6,650 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
ADI expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to equal approximately 4% to 6% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000240 · horizon Fiscal 2026
flows into: cash_flow.capex, quarterly_path.fq4_26.capex, horizons.fy0.capex
ADI expects quarterly dividends to continue, subject to Board determination and declaration.
0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000242 · horizon Quarterly and long term
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.cff, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy1.cff
ADI plans to continue developing innovative technologies and processes and considers sustained R&D commitment essential to product leadership and future growth.
0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000190 · horizon Long term
flows into: income_statement.research_development, income_statement.operating_income, quarterly_path.fq3_27.operating_income, horizons.fy3.operating_income
The company had $8.5 billion remaining under its authorized stock-repurchase program as of May 2, 2026, with future repurchases dependent on financial position, results, outlook and liquidity.
0000006281-26-000052:adi-20260502.htm:b0000238 · horizon Multi-year
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.cff, balance_sheet.other_equity, horizons.fy1.cff
Reported fiscal Q3 revenue of at least $4.10 billion together with adjusted operating margin of at least 49.5%.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K.
Fiscal Q4 guidance midpoint of at least $4.15 billion revenue and at least $3.55 adjusted EPS.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K.
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow remains at least 34% of revenue while inventory days decline from the 139 days reported at May 2, 2026.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 Form 10-Q.
Reported fiscal Q3 revenue below $3.80 billion or adjusted operating margin below 47.5%.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K.
Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance midpoint below $3.90 billion, indicating that the Industrial and Communications recovery is stalling.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K.
Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow falls below 30% of revenue or inventory days rise above 150 despite sequential revenue growth.
checkable at: Fiscal Q3 2026 Form 10-Q.
What must be true: Record B2B bookings must convert into shipments without meaningful cancellations, Industrial utilization and data-center Communications mix must sustain GAAP gross-margin expansion, and Automotive must stabilize rather than offset the Industrial recovery. ADI also needs to preserve roughly 49% adjusted operating margin while funding R&D and keeping working-capital absorption temporary.
ADI enters fiscal Q3 with unusually strong momentum: fiscal Q2 revenue rose 37% year over year, Industrial increased 56%, Communications increased 79%, and management cited record B2B bookings. I forecast $4.02 billion of revenue, modestly above the $4.00 billion top of guidance, and $3.44 of adjusted EPS versus the guided $3.30 midpoint. The principal upside drivers are continued Industrial restocking and AI-related data-center demand; the key offsets are uneven Automotive demand, tougher sequential comparisons and a meaningful working-capital build as ADI supports higher shipments. I expect GAAP gross margin to reach 68.2% and adjusted operating leverage to carry earnings above guidance. The reaction should depend less on a small Q3 beat than on whether fiscal Q4 guidance confirms revenue above $4 billion with adjusted EPS near $3.50. Cash conversion is the secondary watch item: my $1.28 billion FCF estimate assumes the Q2 working-capital outflow begins to normalize but does not fully reverse.
The forecast starts from fiscal Q2 revenue of approximately $3.623 billion, GAAP gross margin of 67.3%, adjusted operating margin of 49.0% and adjusted EPS of $3.09. The attached end-market visual confirms a 15% sequential revenue increase in Q2, led by 20% Industrial and 22% Communications growth, while Automotive rose 8% and Consumer was flat. Filed commentary attributes the expansion to broad Industrial demand, especially test equipment and aerospace/defense, plus AI-driven data-center infrastructure. I therefore place Q3 revenue 3% above the $3.9 billion guidance midpoint. Higher utilization and favorable mix lift GAAP gross margin to 68.2%, but variable compensation and continued R&D investment limit incremental operating leverage. The adjusted-EPS bridge uses the company's projected $391 million acquisition-related adjustment and $51 million associated tax effect. Cash flow assumes strong earnings and non-cash amortization are partly offset by a $450 million working-capital use as receivables and inventory support higher sales. The longer-range path assumes the current cyclical recovery moderates into high-single-digit structural growth, with gross-margin durability, disciplined capital spending and substantial shareholder distributions.
Sealed as snap-6281-20260819T064257309991Z over corpus manifest 2fe8477b… (400 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-6281-20260819T064257309991Z. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.