RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-6281-20260819T065836301087Z
Fiscal 2026 Q3 (quarter ended August 1, 2026), reports August 19 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-19T06:05:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
q2_fy26_revenue_billions
3.62
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000003
q3_fy26_guided_revenue_billions
3.9
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
q3_fy26_guided_adj_eps
3.3
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
q3_fy26_guided_gaap_eps
2.6
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
q2_fy26_adj_eps
3.09
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
q2_fy26_gaap_eps
2.4
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
q2_fy26_adj_operating_margin_pct
49.0
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
q2_fy26_gaap_operating_margin_pct
38.1
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
q3_guided_acquisition_adjustments_millions
391
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000090
declared_quarterly_dividend_per_share
1.1
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000018
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,880 | 3,935 | +36.6% |
| Cost of sales | 1,091 | 1,272 | +16.6% |
| Gross margin ✓ | 1,790 | 2,663 | +48.8% |
| Research and development | 454 | 530 | +16.7% |
| Selling, marketing, general and administrative | 326 | 376 | +15.4% |
| Amortization of intangibles | 187 | 188 | +0.3% |
| Special charges, net | 4 | 4 | -8.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 972 | 1,098 | +13.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 818 | 1,565 | +91.3% |
| Interest expense | 80 | 88 | +10.6% |
| Interest income | -27 | -26 | -4.0% |
| Other, net | 2 | -2 | -194.8% |
| Total nonoperating expense (income) ✓ | 55 | 60 | +9.9% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 763 | 1,505 | +97.2% |
| Provision for income taxes | 245 | 196 | -20.0% |
| Net income ✓ | 519 | 1,309 | +152.5% |
| Shares used to compute diluted EPS | 497 | 488 | -1.7% |
| Diluted earnings per common share ✓ | 1.04 | 2.68 | +157.7% |
Bridge: net income 1,309 + acquisition_related_expenses 391 + special_charges_net 4 + tax_related_items -53 = non-GAAP net income 1,651 ÷ 488M shares = 3.38 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 519 | 1,309 |
| Depreciation | 103 | 106 |
| Amortization of intangibles | 385 | 380 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 85 | 83 |
| Deferred income taxes | 52 | -55 |
| Other | -6 | -6 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | 28 | -250 |
| Total adjustments ✓ | 647 | 258 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 1,165 | 1,567 |
| Purchases of short-term available-for-sale investments | -1,150 | -40 |
| Additions to property, plant and equipment, net | -79 | -145 |
| Other investing activities | -1 | -15 |
| Net cash used for investing activities ✓ | -1,230 | -200 |
| Proceeds from debt | 1,491 | 0 |
| Proceeds from commercial paper notes | 2,551 | 3,900 |
| Payments of commercial paper notes | -2,551 | -3,880 |
| Repurchase of common stock | -1,075 | -647 |
| Dividend payments to shareholders | -490 | -536 |
| Proceeds from employee stock plans | 43 | 14 |
| Other financing activities | 42 | 2 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities ✓ | 10 | -1,147 |
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | -55 | 220 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,437 | 2,657 |
| All other assets (residual) | 45,512 | 45,548 |
| Total assets ✓ | 47,949 | 48,205 |
| Total liabilities | 14,207 | 14,240 |
| Retained earnings | 11,526 | 12,299 |
| Common stock, capital in excess of par and AOCI (residual) | 22,216 | 21,666 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 33,742 | 33,965 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late October 2026) | 4,090 | 3,920–4,250 | 3.52 | 68.0% | 40.8% | -155 | 1,545 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late January 2027) | 3,970 | 3,780–4,180 | 3.38 | 67.8% | 40.2% | -150 | 1,600 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early May 2027) | 4,200 | 3,960–4,450 | 3.65 | 68.3% | 41.8% | -155 | 1,625 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late July or early August 2027) | 4,350 | 4,080–4,620 | 3.85 | 68.5% | 42.3% | -160 | 1,690 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending late October 2026) | 14,808 | 14,550–15,100 | 12.44 | 11.90–12.90 | -547 | 4,961 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late October 2027) | 16,300 | 15,200–17,500 | 14.40 | 13.20–15.60 | -650 | 5,550 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late October 2028) | 17,600 | 16,000–19,200 | 16.00 | 14.50–17.60 | -700 | 6,300 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late October 2029) | 18,900 | 16,800–21,000 | 17.70 | 15.80–19.80 | -750 | 7,050 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Q3 FY26 outlook of $3.9B +/- $100M revenue and $3.30 +/- $0.15 adjusted EPS, with ~49% adjusted operating margin at the midpoint.
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014 · horizon Q3 FY26 print
flows into: income_statement.revenue, headline.eps_adjusted, bridge.non_gaap_net_income
Hybrid manufacturing scale and optionality, built by multi-year supply-chain investment, is intended to convert demand surges into revenue.
ir:30a66bcf5ffb0a45dc00ded978f9779d9f57724df921f0e16a030929a2d539e2 page 3 · horizon FY26-FY27
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy1.capex
Board declared a $1.10 quarterly dividend and Q2 returned $1.3B via dividends and buybacks; capital return remains the default use of FCF.
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000018 · horizon ongoing quarterly
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.cff
Data center and ATE are on steep AI-driven trajectories with rising confidence that growth continues into 2027; aerospace and defense hit a new high.
ir:30a66bcf5ffb0a45dc00ded978f9779d9f57724df921f0e16a030929a2d539e2 page 3 · horizon FY26-FY27
flows into: quarterly_path.fq4_26.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, income_statement.revenue
Industrial ex-ATE/A&D grew more than 40% in 1H FY26, remains below prior-cycle highs with lean channel inventories, and is described as poised for continued strong growth.
ir:30a66bcf5ffb0a45dc00ded978f9779d9f57724df921f0e16a030929a2d539e2 page 3 · horizon coming quarters and longer term
flows into: quarterly_path.fq4_26.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
TTM operating cash flow of $5.1B (40% of revenue) and TTM free cash flow of $4.6B (36% of revenue).
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000004 · horizon FY26
flows into: headline.fcf, horizons.fy0.fcf, horizons.fy0.cfo
Q3 FY26 revenue at or above $4.00B with Industrial still up sequentially versus Q2's $1,799M
checkable at: Q3 FY26 earnings 8-K / EX-99.1 (August 2026)
Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS at or above $3.45 and adjusted operating margin at or above 49%
checkable at: Q3 FY26 earnings 8-K non-GAAP reconciliation
Q3 FY26 free cash flow at or above $1.40B as the Q2 working-capital drain ($808M use) normalizes
checkable at: Q3 FY26 cash flow statement in 8-K / 10-Q
Q4 FY26 guided revenue midpoint at or above $4.05B, confirming the cycle has not peaked in Q3
checkable at: Q3 FY26 outlook paragraph in the earnings release
Q3 FY26 revenue at or below $3.80B, i.e. at or under the low end of company guidance
checkable at: Q3 FY26 earnings 8-K / EX-99.1
Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS at or below $3.15 or GAAP operating margin below 37.5%
checkable at: Q3 FY26 earnings 8-K income statement and non-GAAP bridge
Industrial revenue down sequentially versus Q2 $1,799M, or Communications down sequentially versus Q2 $555M
checkable at: Q3 FY26 end-market revenue table in EX-99.1
Q3 FY26 CFO at or below $1.00B, implying the receivables/inventory build is not converting
checkable at: Q3 FY26 condensed cash flow statement
What must be true: The Industrial restock that produced Q2's 20% sequential jump and 56% YoY growth is still running after August 1, not a one-quarter pull-forward; AI data-center/ATE and aerospace continue to offset any auto or consumer softness; hybrid internal/external capacity actually ships the record bookings rather than creating a lead-time spike that later cancels; pricing stays resilient so incremental revenue drops through at ~49% adjusted operating margin; and the Q2 working-capital absorption reverses enough that FCF conversion stays above 30% of sales.
ADI prints Q3 FY26 (ended August 1) against a $3.9B +/- $100M revenue box and $3.30 +/- $0.15 adjusted EPS. Q2 already cleared the high end at $3.62B / $3.09, with record B2B bookings and Industrial +20% QoQ / +56% YoY. The quarter is closed; this is a beat-or-miss on a completed period, not a live guide. Three things decide it. First, Industrial: management said automation, ETM, energy, healthcare and broad market were still below prior-cycle highs with lean channels — if that restock continued, revenue lands above $3.93B; a pause puts the print on the $3.8B rail. Second, mix and incremental margin: Q2 adjusted GM was 73% and adjusted OM 49%. A further Industrial/Communications-heavy mix should hold OM and push adjusted EPS to ~$3.38; a Consumer/Auto mix shift or utilization giveback would clip the EPS beat. Third, cash conversion: Q2 CFO was only $872M after an $808M working-capital use. The stock will treat sub-$1.1B CFO as evidence the top-line surge was inventory, not end demand. We expect a modest beat ($3.935B, $3.38 adj. EPS) and Q4 guide of $4.05B +/- $100M / $3.50 +/- $0.15. Reaction hinges on Industrial sequential growth and whether Q4 guide clears $4.0B.
Latest reported quarter is Q2 FY26 (ended May 2, 2026), not the year-ago figures in the prompt template. Filed Q2 revenue was $3,623M, GAAP EPS $2.40, adjusted EPS $3.09, GAAP OM 38.1%, adjusted OM 49.0%, cash $2,437M. Company guided Q3 to $3.9B +/- $100M, GAAP EPS $2.60 +/- $0.15, adjusted EPS $3.30 +/- $0.15, ~39% GAAP / ~49% adjusted OM, 12–14% tax, $391M acquisition-related add-backs. I take the guide as the base but print above the midpoint: Q2 beat the high end, bookings were described as record across Industrial/Auto/Comms, Industrial was still below prior-cycle peaks with lean inventories, and ATE/data-center/A&D were called out as continuing into 2027. Sequential +8.6% to $3,935M is inside the guide band and below Q2's 15% sequential jump, so it does not require another surge. Operating leverage on that beat, with opex growing slower than sales and special charges near zero, produces GAAP NI $1,309M ($2.68) and non-GAAP NI $1,651M ($3.38) on 488.5M diluted shares. CFO rebounds from Q2's WC hole to $1,567M; capex -$145M; FCF $1,422M; buybacks and the $1.10 dividend keep CFF an outflow. BS rolls from the filed May 2 cash $2,436.92M and RE $11,526M. Q4 is modeled as a further mid-single-digit sequential step to $4,090M, which is also the midpoint I expect them to guide. FY26 sums Q1 $3,160 + Q2 $3,623 + Q3 $3,935 + Q4 $4,090. FY27–29 assume high-single-digit through-cycle growth as Industrial completes the restock and AI/automation/energy remain the secular stack, with FCF conversion staying in the mid-30s and almost all of it returned via buybacks and a slowly rising dividend.
Sealed as snap-6281-20260819T065836301087Z over corpus manifest 2fe8477b… (400 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-6281-20260819T065836301087Z. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.