RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-6281-20260819T064946899434Z
Fiscal 2026 Q3 (quarter ended August 1, 2026), reports August 19 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-19T06:05:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q2 FY2026 revenue $3,623M in millions
3,623
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000011
Q2 FY2026 operating income $1,379,680 thousand
1,379,680
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000052
Q2 FY2026 cash and cash equivalents $2,436,916 thousand
2,436,916
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000058
Q3 FY2026 guidance revenue $3.9 billion
3.9
0000006281-26-000050 · 0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000014
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,880 | 3,925 | +36.3% |
| Cost of sales | 1,091 | 1,275 | +16.9% |
| Gross margin ✓ | 1,790 | 2,650 | +48.1% |
| Research and development | 454 | 522 | +14.9% |
| Selling, marketing, general and administrative | 326 | 368 | +13.0% |
| Amortization of intangibles | 187 | 188 | +0.3% |
| Special charges, net | 4 | 5 | +15.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 972 | 1,083 | +11.5% |
| Operating income ✓ | 818 | 1,567 | +91.6% |
| Interest expense | 80 | 88 | +10.6% |
| Interest income | -27 | -29 | +7.1% |
| Other, net | 2 | -2 | -194.8% |
| Total nonoperating expense (income) ✓ | 55 | 57 | +4.4% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 763 | 1,510 | +97.8% |
| Provision for income taxes | 245 | 189 | -22.8% |
| Net income ✓ | 519 | 1,321 | +154.8% |
| Shares used to compute diluted EPS | 497 | 488 | -1.7% |
| Diluted earnings per common share ✓ | 1.04 | 2.70 | +160.0% |
Bridge: net income 1,321 + acquisition_related_expenses 391 + special_charges 5 + tax_effects -51 = non-GAAP net income 1,666 ÷ 488M shares = 3.41 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 519 | 1,321 |
| Depreciation | 103 | 105 |
| Amortization of intangibles | 385 | 386 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 85 | 85 |
| Deferred income taxes | 52 | -60 |
| Other | -6 | -8 |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities | 28 | -150 |
| Total adjustments ✓ | 647 | 358 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 1,165 | 1,679 |
| Purchases of short-term available-for-sale investments | -1,150 | -80 |
| Additions to property, plant and equipment, net | -79 | -140 |
| Other investing activities | -1 | -10 |
| Net cash used for investing activities ✓ | -1,230 | -230 |
| Proceeds from debt | 1,491 | 0 |
| Proceeds from commercial paper notes | 2,551 | 3,000 |
| Payments of commercial paper notes | -2,551 | -3,000 |
| Repurchase of common stock | -1,075 | -800 |
| Dividend payments to shareholders | -490 | -538 |
| Proceeds from employee stock plans | 43 | 12 |
| Other financing activities | 42 | 0 |
| Net cash provided by financing activities ✓ | 10 | -1,326 |
| Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | -55 | 123 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,437 | 2,560 |
| All other assets (residual) | 45,512 | 45,740 |
| Total assets ✓ | 47,949 | 48,300 |
| Total liabilities | 14,207 | 14,100 |
| Retained earnings | 11,526 | 12,309 |
| Common stock, capital in excess of par and AOCI (residual) | 22,216 | 21,891 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 33,742 | 34,200 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late October 2026) | 4,020 | 3,900–4,140 | 3.50 | 67.7% | 40.3% | -150 | 1,570 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late January 2027) | 3,850 | 3,700–4,000 | 3.15 | 67.5% | 38.4% | -130 | 1,370 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early May 2027) | 4,000 | 3,850–4,150 | 3.40 | 67.8% | 39.5% | -140 | 1,510 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late July or early August 2027) | 4,150 | 4,000–4,300 | 3.55 | 68.0% | 40.2% | -150 | 1,600 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending late October 2026) | 14,729 | 14,500–14,950 | 12.42 | 11.90–12.95 | -537 | 5,103 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late October 2027) | 16,250 | 15,500–17,000 | 13.80 | 12.80–14.80 | -580 | 5,820 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late October 2028) | 17,300 | 16,400–18,200 | 15.00 | 13.80–16.20 | -600 | 6,400 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late October 2029) | 18,400 | 17,300–19,500 | 16.40 | 15.00–17.80 | -620 | 6,980 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Continue to invest to extend technology performance leadership (R&D and capex)
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000007 · horizon fy1-fy3
flows into: income_statement.research_development, cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, horizons.fy2.capex, horizons.fy3.capex
Revenue of more than $11 billion in FY25 and B2B record bookings imply sustained Industrial/Comms growth
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000041 · horizon fy0-fy3
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_26.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue
Capital allocation: dividends $1.10 quarterly and $1.3B returned via dividends and repurchases in Q2
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000018 · horizon fy0-fy3
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.cff, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy0.cff, horizons.fy1.cff
Non-GAAP adjustments $391M acquisition related expenses and $51M tax effect for Q3 outlook define gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS
0000006281-26-000050:adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm:b0000090 · horizon Q3 FY2026
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, income_statement.amortization_intangibles, headline.eps_adjusted
Q3 FY2026 revenue > $3,950M and adjusted gross margin >73.0% showing Industrial/Comms mix lift
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 8-K (adi2q26exhibit991earnings.htm style) filed late August 2026
Q3 FY2026 free cash flow > $1.55B and TTM FCF margin >36% demonstrating operational discipline
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 10-Q cash flow statement filed August 2026
FY2026 revenue > $14.7B with adjusted EPS > $12.40 showing full-year leverage
checkable at: FY2026 10-K filed November 2026
Q3 FY2026 revenue < $3,800M or QoQ decline in Industrial revenue indicating cyclical stall
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 8-K Revenue Trends by End Market table
Q3 FY2026 GAAP operating margin <37.5% or inventory > $1,950M with rising days, signaling pricing/mix pressure
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 10-Q balance sheet and income statement
Q3 FY2026 net change in cash negative > $200M due to working capital outflow > $300M or buyback > $1B without FCF coverage
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 10-Q cash flow statement
What must be true: Q3 beat is driven by Industrial and Communications outperformance with record B2B bookings converting to revenue, 67-68% GAAP gross and ~73% adjusted gross holds, opex discipline keeps GAAP op margin near 39-40% and adjusted near 49%, and FCF conversion stays >35% while capital return continues—without inventory/receivable blowout or Auto/Consumer drag.
ADI enters Q3 with momentum: Q2 beat the high end on $3.62B revenue (+37% YoY, all end markets up) with 67.3% GAAP gross and record B2B bookings. Guidance is $3.9B +/-$100M, 39% GAAP/49% adjusted op margin, $2.60/$3.30 EPS. Setup hinges on Industrial (+56% YoY in Q2) and Communications (+79%) continuing to lead, vs Auto (+2%) lagging. Two factors matter: (1) mix-driven gross margin defense as high-margin Industrial/Comms dominate, and (2) opex discipline after Q2's 38.1% op margin. A $3.9B+ print with adjusted EPS at $3.40+ and FCF ~$1.54B would confirm the cyclical recovery is broadening; a miss on Industrial sequential or inventory build would flip reaction negative. Q4 guide of $3.9-4.1B and $3.25-3.55 adjusted EPS is the tell for FY26 exit rate.
Anchored on Q2 FY26 10-Q/8-K: revenue $3,623.465M, gross $2,439.798M, operating $1,379.680M, net $1,176.35M, cash $2,436.916M, assets $47,949.095M. Guidance for Q3: $3.9B +/-$100M, op margin 39% GAAP/49% adjusted, EPS $2.60/$3.30, adjustments $391M pre-tax/$51M tax. Forecast modest beat to $3,925M (+8.3% QoQ, +25% YoY) driven by 50% Industrial mix and Communications strength seen in end-market trends (Q2 Industrial 56% YoY, Comms 79%). Modeled 67.5% GAAP gross (73% adjusted), opex 522 R&D +368 SGA +188 amort +5 special, op margin 39.9% GAAP/49.9% adjusted, tax 12.5%, GAAP EPS 2.70, adjusted 3.41 via $340M net add-back, FCF 1,539M (CFO 1,679 -140 capex). Balance sheet rolls from prior cash/retained with dividends $538M. Quarterly path and FY horizons extrapolate mid-single-digit growth and FCF >36% margin, with capex ~$540-620M and steady buybacks/dividends.
Sealed as snap-6281-20260819T064946899434Z over corpus manifest 2fe8477b… (400 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-6281-20260819T064946899434Z. Prompt v5. Nothing here is investment advice.