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← AMAT post-call outlook

experimental vintage — six-model median after the FQ3 print and call; combiner median-v1 · fable, gpt-sol, gemini 3.7, grok 4.6, kimi, muse · the 18 Aug single-model page is archived at v1

AMAT full model — every seat, forward
six-model slate · 2026-08-19

Each cell is that seat’s p50. The published house view is the median of those p50s (median-v1). Per-seat statement identities were checked at intake; the median of six statements is not re-added as if it were one model.

seatFQ4FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Fable 5
v5.8
10,400
4.10
34,437
12.83
44,700
17.75
48,500
20.00
50,500
21.00
GPT-5.6 Sol
v5.8
10,250
4.02
34,287
12.75
45,250
17.85
52,000
21.50
58,000
24.80
Kimi K3
v5.8
10,300
4.05
34,337
12.78
45,400
17.85
51,200
22.40
56,875
26.00
Muse Spark 1.2
v5.8
8,920
3.38
32,692
11.95
35,800
13.05
38,500
14.20
41,000
15.10
Grok 4.6
v5.9
10,250
4.02
34,287
12.77
41,200
16.80
45,800
19.50
49,200
21.80
Gemini 3.7 Flash
v5.9
10,250
4.02
34,287
12.75
45,000
17.50
51,000
20.30
57,000
23.40
median-v110,250
4.02
34,287
12.76
44,850
17.62
49,750
20.15
53,688
22.60

Market analog — WFE × share

FY2026 WFE / share115,200 · 22.0%
FY2027 WFE / share140,600 · 22.1%
FY2028 WFE / share160,000 · 22.2%
FY2029 WFE / share175,400 · 22.8%
Snapshots: Fable 5 snap-6951-20260819T081232297310Z · GPT-5.6 Sol snap-6951-20260819T091101533707Z · Kimi K3 snap-6951-20260819T092514354011Z · Muse Spark 1.2 snap-6951-20260819T090421019200Z · Grok 4.6 snap-6951-20260819T124609490272Z · Gemini 3.7 Flash snap-6951-20260819T124738355050Z