# BAC Quarter forecast · Q3 2026 > Bank of America reported Q3 2026. These are the numbers we published before the release, with a cutoff of 13 October 2026, 09:16 ET. Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/bac/fq3-2026/preview/ Wednesday 14 October, about 06:45 ET · reported Bank of America reported Q3 2026. These are the numbers we published before the release, with a cutoff of 13 October 2026, 09:16 ET. [Release review →](https://pricedin.markets/bac/fq3-2026/result/) BAC · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-10-13 09:16:45 ET · 6 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10 ## BAC reports Q3 2026 on 14 October 2026 release before the open, about 06:45 ET · call 08:30 ET Next report · Q3 2026 Sales $30.4B +5% on Q3 2025 Adjusted EPS $1.09 Quarter after · Q4 2026 Sales $30.7B +8% on Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS $1.16 ### Q3 2026 · the quarter BAC reports ##### Sales PricedIn **$30.4B** $29.4B – $31.4B $29.4B $30.4B $31.4B ##### adjusted EPS PricedIn **$1.09** $0.97 – $1.21 $0.97 $1.09 $1.21 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. All six build the quarter on the chief executive's September fee guide; middles sit between $30.1B and $30.6B, differing mainly on how much wealth fees and interest income offset softer trading. Third-quarter sales slip to about $30.4B as deal and trading fees cool from a record second quarter, while interest income keeps growing. Sales **$30.4B** $29.4B – $31.4B · +5% on Q3 2025 ($29.0B) Adjusted EPS **$1.09** $0.97 – $1.21 #### Investment and cash generation Capital spending: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. Bank of America had a record second quarter: sales of $31.6B, up 15% on a year earlier, with interest income of $16.0B and fee income of $15.6B lifted by trading and deal-making. Trading alone brought in $7.1B. In mid-September the chief executive warned that the third quarter would cool: investment banking fees of $1.6B to $1.8B, trading flat on last year's strong third quarter, wealth fees up 10 to 15%, and expenses holding near $18.6B, which he said makes the quarter tough. The models take that guide at face value. On average they see fee income falling to about $14.0B while interest income rises to about $16.4B, helped by loan growth and older loans and bonds repricing at higher rates. Sales land near $30.4B, 3.7% below the second quarter but above the $29.0B of a year earlier. Profit follows the dip. With expenses flat at $18.6B and credit losses steady at $1.4B, income before taxes falls to about $10.4B from $11.6B, and net income to about $8.3B from $9.1B. The spread is narrow. Grok sits lowest at $30.1B, taking the middle of the fee range and holding trading at last year's level; Gemini and Muse Wonder sit highest at $30.6B. Sol allows the widest range, from $28.9B to $31.5B, because late-quarter deals could swing the result. Earnings per share of about $1.09, against $1.21 in the second quarter, come from net income near $8.3B less preferred dividends, spread over a share count that buybacks cut every quarter. #### Sales by quarter Q1 2025 $28.2B Q2 2025 $27.4B Q3 2025 $29.0B Q4 2025 $28.4B +7% Q1 2026 $30.3B +7% Q2 2026 $31.6B +15% Q3 2026 $30.4B +5% Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast. #### The quarter forecast, line by line | Line | Q2 2026 reported | Q3 2025 reported | Q3 2026 forecast | Q4 2025 reported | Q4 2026 forecast | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Net interest income | $16.0B | $15.2B | $16.4B | $15.8B | $16.7B | | Total noninterest income | $15.6B | $13.8B | $14.0B | $12.6B | $14.0B | | Total revenue, net of interest expense | $31.6B | $29.0B | $30.4B | $28.4B | $30.7B | | Sales growth, year on year | +15% | — | +5% | +7% | +8% | | Provision for credit losses | $1.37B | $1.29B | $1.37B | $1.31B | $1.41B | | Total noninterest expense | $18.6B | $17.3B | $18.6B | $17.4B | $18.6B | | Income before income taxes | $11.6B | $10.4B | $10.4B | $9.6B | $10.7B | | Income tax expense | $2.49B | $2.08B | $2.19B | $1.98B | $2.25B | | Tax rate | 21.5% | 19.9% | 21.0% | 20.5% | 20.9% | | Net income | $9.07B | $8.33B | $8.26B | $7.65B | $8.49B | | Net income applicable to common shareholders | $8.75B | $7.90B | $7.85B | $7.32B | $8.16B | | Average diluted common shares issued and outstanding (in shares) | 7.29B | 7.63B | 7.18B | 7.55B | 7.07B | | Adjusted EPS | — | — | $1.09 | — | $1.16 | The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments. #### Trading revenue by quarter Third quarter 2025 $5.40B Fourth quarter 2025 $4.50B Second quarter 2026 $7.10B **Where each number comes from** **Third quarter 2025** “Sales and trading revenue up 9% to $5.4 billion including net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) gains of $14 million. Excluding net DVA, up 8%.(E) 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth” **Fourth quarter 2025** “Sales and trading revenue of $4.5 billion, up 10%, including and excluding net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $17 million.(E) 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth” **Second quarter 2026** “Sales and trading revenue of $7.1 billion, incl. net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $57 million. Up 33% incl. and excl. net DVA.(E) 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth” Trading dropped at the end of 2025, then hit a record in the second quarter; the third quarter is guided flat on last year's level. #### What it rests on **Third-quarter deal fees** Investment banking $1.6B to $1.8B, trading flat on last year “investment banking $1.6B to $1.8B and sales and trading flat.” Chief executive, September 14 conference **Wealth fees** Asset management fees up 10 to 15% in the third quarter “Investment management AUM fees up 10 to 15% which is good news. And then you're back into loans and” Chief executive, September 14 conference **Quarterly expenses** Bouncing around $18.6B a quarter “about the rest of the company. And then expenses are bouncing around at the $18.6B level, which makes” Chief executive, September 14 conference **Interest income outlook** 2026 growth at the upper end of 6% to 8% “at the upper end of that 6% to 8% range, supported by anticipated loan and deposit growth, fixed rate asset” July 14 earnings call **Credit losses** Provision and net charge-offs both about $1.4B in the second quarter “approximately $1.4 billion. Net charge-offs were also $1.4 billion, and both were largely unchanged from Q1.” July 14 earnings call #### Low and high Base $30.4B sales, $1.09 adjusted EPS: the story above. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$29.4B** sales · −3% vs base **$0.97** EPS · −11% vs base Sales near $29.4B, 3.3% below the base and 6.9% under the second quarter. Investment banking fees would land under the $1.6B bottom of the guided range, trading would fall below last year rather than stay flat, and expenses would hold at $18.6B while revenue drops. Earnings per share would fall to about $0.97. Sol's low is deepest at $28.9B; GLM's is shallowest at $29.9B. Third-quarter sales were $29.0B a year earlier, and sales fell 2.8% from the first to the second quarter of 2025, so a quarterly drop of this size has precedent. - **Deal fees and trading fall below the guide *4 of 6*** - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Capital markets activity slows markedly with investment banking fees falling below $1.6 billion and sales and trading contracting - **Muse Wonder** investment banking fees slip below the guided range and do not recover in the fourth quarter - **Opus 5.5** investment banking and trading revenue falling - **Grok 4.7** Capital markets revenue stays well below the first-half pace - **Expenses stay fixed while revenue drops *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** expenses sticky while revenue slows - **Muse Wonder** Expenses stay near the current run rate while revenue falls, removing operating leverage - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Sticky noninterest expenses failing to flex down with lower revenue leading to negative operating leverage - **Credit losses start rising *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** credit losses rising from a weaker consumer - **Grok 4.7** Credit losses rise as unemployment drifts higher and fuel stays expensive - **Muse Wonder** Provision for credit losses rises with charge-offs The six lows run from $28.9B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $29.9B (GLM 5.3). First sign The third-quarter release in October: investment banking fees under $1.6B, or trading below last year's third quarter. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$31.4B** sales · +3% vs base **$1.21** EPS · +10% vs base Sales near $31.4B, 3.2% above the base and nearly level with the second quarter, just 0.6% below it. Deal fees would beat $1.8B, trading would rise on last year rather than stay flat, wealth fees would reach the top of the 10 to 15% range, and interest income would top about $16.5B. Earnings per share would reach about $1.21. Muse Wonder's high is the most generous at $31.8B; Opus and GLM stop at $31.0B. The second quarter brought $31.6B, a record, with sales up 15% on a year earlier, so the high case only asks the bank to hold most of that pace. - **Trading and deal fees beat the September guide *4 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Trading and investment banking stronger than the September indication - **Muse Wonder** Investment banking above 1.8 billion dollars and sales and trading up year over year - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Continued strength in fixed income and equities trading outperforming flat guidance - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Trading and investment banking rebound from the third-quarter slowdown - **Wealth fees lifted by record stock markets *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Wealth fees lifted by higher markets - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Buoyant wealth management asset management fees propelled by equity markets reaching record highs - **Muse Wonder** Asset management fees up 10 to 15 percent with market gains - **Interest income grows faster on higher rates *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** faster net interest income growth from higher rates - **Grok 4.7** Faster net interest income from further rate increases and fixed-rate repricing - **GLM 5.3** asset sensitivity pays as the Fed hikes, about $1 billion of net interest income per 100 basis points The six highs run from $31.0B (GLM 5.3) to $31.8B (Muse Wonder). First sign The third-quarter release in October: trading up on last year's third quarter, or investment banking fees above $1.8B. #### Watch The third-quarter release in October. Higher: interest income above about $16.5B, deal fees above $1.8B, trading up on last year. Lower: deal fees under $1.6B, trading down on last year, or credit provisions climbing above about $1.6B. ### Q4 2026 · the quarter after ##### Sales PricedIn **$30.7B** $29.2B – $32.1B $29.2B $30.7B $32.1B ##### adjusted EPS PricedIn **$1.16** $0.97 – $1.31 $0.97 $1.16 $1.31 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. Five of six see a small rise; GLM and Muse Wonder bet on a trading rebound to $31.3B and $31.4B, while Gemini alone sees a dip to $30.2B. Fourth-quarter sales edge up to about $30.7B as interest income keeps climbing and trading partly recovers from a weak quarter a year earlier. Sales **$30.7B** $29.2B – $32.1B · +8% on Q4 2025 ($28.4B) Adjusted EPS **$1.16** $0.97 – $1.31 #### Investment and cash generation Capital spending: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. The fourth quarter of 2025 was soft: sales of $28.4B, 2.3% below the third quarter, with trading of only $4.5B and investment banking fees of $1.7B. That leaves an easy comparison for the end of 2026. The company points to support. Its banking book gains about $1B of yearly interest income for each one-point rise in rates, and the Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.88% on September 17. The chief executive says deal pipelines are staying full. On average the models put fourth-quarter interest income near $16.7B and fee income flat at about $14.0B, with expenses at $18.6B and credit losses at $1.4B. Sales reach about $30.7B, 1.0% above the third quarter. They split on trading. GLM and Muse Wonder expect a rebound, with GLM building trading near $5.7B and deal fees near $1.9B, reaching $31.3B and $31.4B. Opus sees almost no growth because fourth quarters are seasonally weak for trading, and Gemini alone sees a dip, to $30.2B. The year's arithmetic frames it: $61.8B of 2026 sales is already booked, so the fourth quarter is what the full-year forecast leaves after the third. About $1.16, 5.7% above the third quarter: net income near $8.5B, lighter fourth-quarter preferred dividends lifting income to common shareholders to about $8.2B, and a smaller share count. #### What it rests on **Year-ago trading** Fourth-quarter 2025 trading revenue of $4.5B “Sales and trading revenue of $4.5 billion, up 10%, including and excluding net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $17 million.(E) 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth” Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release **Year-ago deal fees** Investment banking fees of $1.7B in fourth quarter 2025 “Total Corporation investment banking fees (excl. self-led) of $1.7 billion, up 1%” Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release **Deal pipelines** Pipelines staying full; deals still need financing “now we're seeing it solid in the pipelines are staying full and the deals got to get financed and get done. It” Chief executive, September 14 conference **Rate rise sensitivity** About $1B more interest income per one-point rise “parallel shift above the forward curve is expected to increase NII by $1 billion over the next 12-month period.” July 14 earnings call **Federal Reserve rate** Raised to 3.88% on September 17 “2026-09-17 3.88” Federal Reserve data #### Low and high Base $30.7B sales, $1.16 adjusted EPS: the story above. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$29.2B** sales · −5% vs base **$0.97** EPS · −16% vs base Sales near $29.2B, 4.8% below the base and 3.8% under the third-quarter average. Deal fees and trading would stay weak for a second quarter, deposit costs would catch up with loan yields, and credit losses would start to climb, pulling earnings per share down to about $0.97. Grok's low is deepest at $28.4B; GLM's is shallowest at $30.3B. The fourth quarter of 2025 came in at $28.4B, 2.3% below the quarter before, so a weak year-end has happened recently. - **Trading and deal fees stay weak past September *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Trading and investment banking stay soft past this quarter - **Muse Wonder** investment banking fees slip below the guided range and do not recover in the fourth quarter - **GPT-6.1 Sol** The third-quarter fee slowdown persists - **Deposit costs catch up with asset yields *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Deposit costs reprice faster than loans and securities - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Rising deposit competition compressing net interest margin gains despite higher benchmark rates - **Muse Wonder** higher long-term rates curb loan demand while deposit costs catch up - **Credit losses begin rising *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** push card and commercial losses up - **Opus 5.5** credit losses rising from a weaker consumer - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Higher credit provisions and slower share repurchases hurt per-share earnings The six lows run from $28.4B (Grok 4.7) to $30.3B (GLM 5.3). First sign The October third-quarter release: deal fees below $1.6B, or management pointing fourth-quarter interest income below about $16.7B. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$32.1B** sales · +5% vs base **$1.31** EPS · +14% vs base Sales near $32.1B, 4.6% above the base and 5.7% above the third quarter. The deal pipeline would close in the fourth quarter, trading would rebound from the September lull, and another rate rise would lift interest income faster than deposit costs. Earnings per share would reach about $1.31. Sol's high is the boldest at $33.0B; Gemini's stops at $31.4B. The second quarter of 2026 delivered $31.6B with investment banking fees of $2.1B, so the high case asks the bank to return to that pace and a little beyond. - **Deal pipeline closes before year-end *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** The investment banking pipeline closes in the fourth quarter - **Opus 5.5** investment banking pipeline converting - **Muse Wonder** investment banking pipelines convert faster than guided - **Trading rebounds from the third-quarter lull *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** trading rebounds from this quarter's lull - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Trading and investment banking rebound from the third-quarter slowdown - **GLM 5.3** a normal fourth quarter of 2026 (trading near $5.7 billion, investment banking near $1.9 billion on strong pipelines) - **Another rate rise lifts interest income *2 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Another rate increase lifts net interest income faster than deposit costs - **GLM 5.3** asset sensitivity pays as the Fed hikes, about $1 billion of net interest income per 100 basis points The six highs run from $31.3B (Opus 5.5) to $33.0B (GPT-6.1 Sol). First sign In October, a fourth-quarter interest income outlook above $17B; then January results with investment banking fees back above $2B. #### Watch The October third-quarter release and its fourth-quarter interest income outlook, then January results. Higher: interest income pointed above $17B, deal fees back above $2B. Lower: a second weak quarter for deal fees, or credit provisions rising past about $1.6B.