# DAL Quarter forecast · Q4 2026

> Delta Air Lines reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 9 October 2026, 11:07 ET and do not change.

Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/dal/fq4-2026/preview/

cutoff 9 October 2026, 11:07 ET

Delta Air Lines reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 9 October 2026, 11:07 ET and do not change.

DAL · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-10-09 11:07:15 ET · 5 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10

## DAL reports Q4 2026

The report date is not in the calendar yet.

Next report · Q4 2026

Sales $20.3B +27% on Q4 2025

Adjusted EPS $1.37 −12% on Q4 2025

Quarter after · Q1 2027

Sales $19.0B +20% on Q1 2026

Adjusted EPS $0.88 +37% on Q1 2026

### Q4 2026 · the quarter DAL reports

##### Sales

PricedIn **$20.3B** $19.2B – $21.5B

$19.2B $20.3B $21.5B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$1.37** $0.87 – $1.86

$0.87 $1.37 $1.86

**Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

All five put earnings at $1.30 to $1.40 a share; sales differ more, from $19.8B to $20.6B, on refinery sales.

Sales near $20.3B and earnings near $1.37 a share, mid-guidance, as higher fares cover fuel near $4.25 a gallon.

Sales **$20.3B** $19.2B – $21.5B · +27% on Q4 2025 ($16.0B)

Adjusted EPS **$1.37** $0.87 – $1.86 · −12% on Q4 2025 ($1.55)

#### Investment and cash generation

Base case

Capital spending **$1.32B**

Free cash flow **$552M**

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

Delta's September quarter brought record airline revenue of $17.6B, up 16%, but fuel cost $3.61 a gallon, 60% more than a year earlier, and earnings of $1.72 a share fell short of July's guidance. Reported sales of $20.2B also include refinery sales to outside buyers, which rose with crude prices.

For the December quarter Delta expects revenue about 20% higher, excluding refinery sales, earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 a share, and an all-in fuel price near $4.25 a gallon. More than 60% of the quarter was already booked, and forward cash sales grew nearly 20%.

The five models put sales between $19.8B and $20.6B, mostly on how much refinery sales they add, and earnings between $1.30 and $1.40. Grok and GLM sit below the guidance midpoint after September's fuel miss; Opus, Sol and Gemini sit at $1.40.

Earnings come from airline revenue about 20% higher against a fuel bill near $4.5B and non-fuel unit costs up about 6%. Refinery sales add revenue but no profit. The average is $1.37.

#### Sales by quarter

Q2 2025 $16.6B −0%

Q3 2025 $16.7B +6%

Q4 2025 $16.0B +3%

Q1 2026 $15.9B +13%

Q2 2026 $19.8B +19%

Q3 2026 $20.2B +21%

Q4 2026 $20.3B +27%

Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.

#### The quarter forecast, line by line

| Line | Q3 2026 reported | Q4 2025 reported | Q4 2026 forecast | Q1 2026 reported | Q1 2027 forecast |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Total operating revenue | $20.2B | $16.0B | $20.3B | $15.9B | $19.0B |
| Sales growth, year on year | +21% | +3% | +27% | +13% | +20% |
| Passenger | $15.5B | $12.9B | $15.4B | $12.3B | $14.3B |
| Cargo | $301M | $246M | $306M | $226M | $259M |
| Other | $4.35B | $2.84B | $4.59B | $3.33B | $4.43B |
| Salaries and related costs | $4.82B | $4.59B | $4.91B | $4.54B | $4.81B |
| Aircraft fuel and related taxes | $4.35B | $2.38B | $4.54B | $2.74B | $4.06B |
| Refinery expense | $2.60B | — | $2.81B | $1.65B | $2.55B |
| MRO expense | $267M | — | $273M | $328M | $319M |
| Contracted services | $1.28B | $1.18B | $1.27B | $1.19B | $1.25B |
| Landing fees and other rents | $1.02B | $0.91B | $1.00B | $0.91B | $0.97B |
| Aircraft maintenance materials and outside repairs | $662M | $528M | $615M | $709M | $679M |
| Regional carrier expense | $680M | $640M | $676M | $649M | $672M |
| Passenger commissions and other selling expenses | $703M | $616M | $692M | $590M | $663M |
| Depreciation and amortization | $673M | $620M | $683M | $635M | $693M |
| Passenger service | $494M | $458M | $477M | $428M | $451M |
| Profit sharing | $389M | $351M | $302M | $165M | $198M |
| Aircraft rent | $159M | $134M | $161M | $143M | $163M |
| Other | $633M | — | $603M | $666M | $600M |
| Total operating expense | $18.7B | $14.5B | $19.0B | $15.4B | $18.1B |
| Operating Income | $1.45B | $1.47B | $1.32B | $0.50B | $0.89B |
| Operating margin | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| Interest expense, net | −$146M | −$158M | −$140M | −$151M | −$138M |
| Gain/(loss) on investments, net | −$218M | $205M | $0 | −$550M | $0 |
| Loss on extinguishment of debt | $2.00M | $0 | $0 | −$4.00M | $0 |
| Miscellaneous, net | −$18.0M | −$1.0M | −$22.6M | −$10.0M | −$21.0M |
| Total non-operating income/(expense), net | −$380M | $46M | −$163M | −$715M | −$159M |
| Income Before Income Taxes | $1.07B | $1.51B | $1.16B | −$0.21B | $0.73B |
| Income Tax Provision | $318M | $294M | $272M | $75M | $171M |
| Tax rate | 29.6% | 19.4% | 23.4% | −35.0% | 23.5% |
| Net Income | $0.76B | $1.22B | $0.89B | −$0.29B | $0.56B |
| Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding | — | 0.66B | 0.66B | 0.65B | 0.66B |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.72 | $1.55 | $1.37 | $0.64 | $0.88 |

The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.

#### Delta revenue excluding refinery sales, by quarter

Q1 2025 $13.0B

Q3 2025 $15.2B

Q4 2025 $14.6B

Q1 2026 $14.2B

Q2 2026 $17.7B

Q3 2026 $17.6B

**Where each number comes from**

**Q1 2025**

“Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %”

**Q3 2025**

“Operating revenue, adjusted $ 17,585 $ 14,606 $ 15,197 16 %”

**Q4 2025**

“Total Revenue, adjusted $ 14,606 1.2% (0.1)%”

**Q1 2026**

“Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %”

**Q2 2026**

“June quarter total revenue increased 14 percent over the same period last year to a record $17.7 billion on approximately 1 percent capacity growth.”

**Q3 2026**

“Operating revenue, adjusted $ 17,585 $ 14,606 $ 15,197 16 %”

The base under Delta's growth outlooks; refinery sales to outside buyers come on top in reported sales.

#### What it rests on

**December revenue outlook**

About 20% growth, excluding refinery sales “Expect continued momentum in December quarter with revenue expected to grow approximately 20 percent” October earnings release

**December earnings outlook**

$1.15 to $1.65 a share “Earnings Per Share $1.15 - $1.65” October earnings release

**Fuel price assumed**

About $4.25 a gallon, including a refinery benefit near $0.40 “Guidance for the December quarter assumes fuel at the forward curve as of October 2, 2026, and includes a refinery benefit of approximately $0.40 per gallon. This results in a projected all-in fuel price for the quarter of approximately $4.25 per gallon.” October earnings release

**Quarter already booked**

More than 60% “we're already greater than 60% booked for the quarter” October earnings call

**September non-fuel unit costs**

Up 7.3% from a year earlier “•Non-fuel CASM was 14.03¢, an increase of 7.3 percent year-over-year” October earnings release

#### Low and high

Base $20.3B sales, $1.37 adjusted EPS: the story above.

**$1.32B** Capital spending

**$552M** Free cash flow

Cash walk not supplied by every model.

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

**$19.2B** sales · −5% vs base

**$0.87** EPS · −36% vs base

Jet fuel re-spikes above $5 a gallon or late bookings soften, so sales fall to about $19.2B and earnings to about $0.87 a share, 36% below the base.

In September fuel ran above plan; Delta absorbed more than $500 million of extra fuel cost and earned $1.72 against July's $2.00 to $2.50 guide.

- **Jet fuel staying high or rising *5 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fuel price staying high, or falling fares outrunning falling fuel
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** High fuel prices or renewed refinery disruption
  - **Grok 4.7** Gulf Coast jet fuel stays above about $4 a gallon through 2027
  - **GLM 5.3** Jet fuel price (Gulf Coast market above $5 per gallon, persisting)
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Persistent jet fuel crack spreads above historical norms eroding operating margins
- **Travelers resisting higher fares *5 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fares slipping as consumer and corporate spending weakens
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Weaker passenger demand and fare retention
  - **Grok 4.7** This year's fare increases give back 3 to 5 points as some travelers resist
  - **GLM 5.3** Fare increases finally hitting demand elasticity
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Consumer resistance to higher airfares leading to weaker passenger load factors
- **Non-fuel costs staying high *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** unit costs rising on lower flying
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Slower recovery in crew productivity
  - **GLM 5.3** Non-fuel unit cost growth stuck at 5 percent or more
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Operational disruption and severe winter weather raising non-fuel unit costs

The five lows run from $18.7B (Grok 4.7) to $19.9B (GLM 5.3).

First sign Gulf Coast jet fuel running above about $4.50 a gallon through November and December.

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

**$21.5B** sales · +6% vs base

**$1.86** EPS · +36% vs base

Fuel eases inside the quarter while fares hold and bookings stay strong, so sales reach about $21.5B and earnings about $1.86 a share, 36% above the base and above Delta's $1.65 top.

September airline revenue grew 16%, with unit revenue up 15%, accelerating 3 points from the June quarter.

- **Fares holding as rivals cut flying *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fares holding as competitors cut flying
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Disciplined competing seat supply
  - **Grok 4.7** Competitors keep removing unprofitable seats
  - **GLM 5.3** Industry capacity discipline persists as sub-cost-of-capital carriers shrink
- **Premium and loyalty revenue growing faster *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** premium and loyalty revenue keeping double-digit growth
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster premium and loyalty growth
  - **GLM 5.3** Loyalty, American Express remuneration and MRO keep compounding double digits
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Accelerated loyalty remuneration from American Express surpassing ten billion dollars
- **Fuel falling back quickly *3 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fuel falling back quickly
  - **Grok 4.7** Jet fuel normalizes toward $2.50 to $2.70 a gallon
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Rapid moderation in Gulf Coast jet fuel prices toward historical averages

The five highs run from $20.8B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $22.1B (Grok 4.7).

First sign Gulf Coast jet fuel dropping below $3.50 a gallon in November while unit revenue keeps rising.

#### Watch

Delta reports the December quarter in January. Fuel above $4.50 a gallon or bookings slowing from the near 20% pace points lower; fuel below $3.50 with fares holding points higher.

### Q1 2027 · the quarter after

##### Sales

PricedIn **$19.0B** $17.5B – $20.4B

$17.5B $19.0B $20.4B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$0.88** $0.26 – $1.45

$0.26 $0.88 $1.45

**Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

Sales range from Gemini's $18.0B to GLM's $19.6B; earnings from GLM's $0.60 to Grok's $1.00.

Sales near $19.0B and earnings near $0.88 a share, as the slow winter season meets fuel far dearer than a year ago.

Sales **$19.0B** $17.5B – $20.4B · +20% on Q1 2026 ($15.9B)

Adjusted EPS **$0.88** $0.26 – $1.45 · +37% on Q1 2026 ($0.64)

#### Investment and cash generation

Capital spending: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

The March quarter is Delta's weakest season: this year it earned $0.64 a share on sales of $15.9B, with fuel at $2.62 a gallon. Next March fares are about 20% higher, but fuel near $4.00 a gallon laps that cheap base.

Delta has not yet given a March outlook. On the October call it said early bookings for the quarter look very similar to December, with good visibility for 90 to 120 days.

The models put sales between $18.0B and $19.6B and earnings between $0.60 and $1.00. GLM is lowest on earnings, carrying a fuel bill up about $1.8B from a year earlier; Grok is highest, expecting fares to hold into early 2027.

Earnings rest on fares still well above last year against fuel near $4.00 a gallon; refinery sales add revenue but no profit. The average of $0.88 is 36% below December's.

#### What it rests on

**Early March-quarter bookings**

Very similar to the December quarter “Like I said, fourth quarter is booking very well. Early indications from 1Q are very similar to 4Q.” October earnings call

**Booking visibility**

About 90 to 120 days, into the first quarter “Joe Estosito (executive): Yeah, thanks. Like I said, fourth quarter is booking very well. Early indications from 1Q are very similar to 4Q. And so we're continuing to see good strength. We're assuming the economy is strong, and it is, and our corporates continue to book. So we'll be very, you know, we feel very good about forward bookings. We have good visibility probably for the next 90 to 120 days, which gets into the first quarter, and all indications are very positive.” October earnings call

**Fuel price last March**

$2.62 a gallon, adjusted “Average price per fuel gallon, adjusted - see Note A $ 2.62 $ 2.45 7 %” First-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Adjusted revenue last March**

$14.2B, up 9.4% “Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %” First-quarter 2026 earnings release

**2027 cost outlook**

Low-single-digit growth in non-fuel unit costs “Looking to next year, we remain on track for low-single-digit unit cost growth as capacity normalizes, operational improvements continue and we lap higher costs in our baseline.” October earnings release

#### Low and high

Base $19.0B sales, $0.88 adjusted EPS: the story above.

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

**$17.5B** sales · −8% vs base

**$0.26** EPS · −70% vs base

Fuel stays above $4 a gallon through the winter and travelers balk at fares once the booked period ends, so sales slip to about $17.5B and earnings to about $0.26 a share; Sol's low is a loss of $0.20.

This March quarter Delta earned $0.64 a share with fuel at $2.62 a gallon and an operating margin of 3.2%.

- **Fuel staying above $4 a gallon *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fuel price staying high, or falling fares outrunning falling fuel
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** High fuel prices or renewed refinery disruption
  - **Grok 4.7** Gulf Coast jet fuel stays above about $4 a gallon through 2027
  - **GLM 5.3** Jet fuel price (Gulf Coast market above $5 per gallon, persisting)
- **Demand softening after the booked winter *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fares slipping as consumer and corporate spending weakens
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Weaker passenger demand and fare retention
  - **GLM 5.3** Demand: forward booking and cash sales growth slowing from ~20 percent
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Consumer resistance to higher airfares leading to weaker passenger load factors
- **Winter disruption and crew costs *3 of 5***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Slower recovery in crew productivity
  - **GLM 5.3** Non-fuel unit cost growth stuck at 5 percent or more
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Operational disruption and severe winter weather raising non-fuel unit costs

The five lows run from $17.0B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $18.6B (GLM 5.3).

First sign Delta's January outlook for the March quarter pointing to revenue growth under 10%.

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

**$20.4B** sales · +7% vs base

**$1.45** EPS · +66% vs base

Fares hold at December levels while fuel eases faster than expected, so sales reach about $20.4B and earnings about $1.45 a share, 66% above the base.

Forward cash sales grew nearly 20% in the September quarter, the highest quarterly growth since 2022.

- **Fares holding into early 2027 *4 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fares holding as competitors cut flying
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Durable fares despite lower fuel prices
  - **Grok 4.7** The 2026 fare increases stick in full
  - **GLM 5.3** Oil disruption resolves: Gulf Coast jet fuel back to $3.00-3.50 while fares hold
- **Fuel easing faster *3 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** fuel falling back quickly
  - **Grok 4.7** Jet fuel normalizes toward $2.50 to $2.70 a gallon
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Rapid moderation in Gulf Coast jet fuel prices toward historical averages
- **Premium and corporate travel strength *3 of 5***
  - **Opus 5.5** premium and loyalty revenue keeping double-digit growth
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster premium and loyalty growth
  - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Outsized premium cabin and corporate travel pricing power expanding operating margins into the mid teens

The five highs run from $19.0B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $20.9B (GPT-6.1 Sol).

First sign Delta's January outlook still showing high-teens revenue growth for the March quarter on modest capacity.

#### Watch

Delta's January report gives the March outlook: high-teens revenue growth points higher, under 10% points lower. Watch fuel through the winter and whether bookings beyond the 90 to 120 day window stay as strong.