# FAST Quarter forecast · Q4 2026 > Fastenal reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 14 October 2026, 13:07 ET and do not change. Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/fast/fq4-2026/preview/ cutoff 14 October 2026, 13:07 ET Fastenal reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 14 October 2026, 13:07 ET and do not change. FAST · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-10-14 13:07:24 ET · 6 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10 ## FAST reports Q4 2026 The report date is not in the calendar yet. Next report · Q4 2026 Sales $2.32B +14% on Q4 2025 Diluted EPS $0.31 +18% on Q4 2025 Quarter after · Q1 2027 Sales $2.46B +12% on Q1 2026 Diluted EPS $0.33 +11% on Q1 2026 ### Q4 2026 · the quarter FAST reports ##### Sales PricedIn **$2.32B** $2.22B – $2.40B $2.22B $2.32B $2.40B ##### diluted EPS PricedIn **$0.31** $0.27 – $0.34 $0.27 $0.31 $0.34 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. All six models put fourth-quarter sales at $2.3B and earnings per share at $0.30 to $0.31; they differ mainly in range. GLM, lowest in the middle, expects about 13% growth because the quarter 'laps a 310-340 basis point pricing quarter.' Gemini, highest, holds gross margin 'around 44.60%' as 'price-cost approaches neutrality.' Muse Wonder's range is widest: its low has 'Gross margin falls more than sixty basis points year over year'; its high has 'Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps.' Fourth-quarter sales should dip to about $2.3B on the usual holiday slowdown, with earnings per share near $0.31. Sales **$2.32B** $2.22B – $2.40B · +14% on Q4 2025 ($2.03B) Diluted EPS **$0.31** $0.27 – $0.34 · +18% on Q4 2025 ($0.26) #### Investment and cash generation Base case Capital spending **$128M** Free cash flow **$289M** Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. Fastenal, a supplier of fasteners and factory supplies, sold $2.5B in the third quarter, with daily sales up 15.5% from a year earlier. The company credits share gains with larger customers, price increases and broad demand. Earnings per share reached $0.35, ahead of our forecast of $0.34. The momentum is cooling at the edges. September grew 14.4%, below July and August, and management says the boost from last year's price increases is starting to fade. Price added about 2.4 points of growth in the third quarter, down from earlier in the year. Every model expects sales to fall about 6.0% from the third quarter to $2.3B. That fits the past pattern: the fourth quarter fell 5.0% from the third in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, as holidays and winter slow factories and building sites. On margins, the models drop a one-off timing gain that lifted third-quarter gross margin, then apply the usual seasonal dip, taking operating margin to about 20%. Last year's fourth quarter carried a timing drag that should not repeat, which offsets the pull from lower-margin large customers. The models barely differ in the middle: every one sits at $2.3B. They differ on how wide the range is. Muse Wonder allows a high of $2.5B and a low of $2.2B; GLM keeps its whole range at $2.3B. Earnings per share of about $0.31 come from sales of $2.3B, a gross margin near 44% and an operating margin near 20%, taxed at the company's stated 24.6%, with the share count almost unchanged. #### Sales by quarter Q2 2025 $2.08B +9% Q3 2025 $2.13B +12% Q4 2025 $2.03B +11% Q1 2026 $2.20B +12% Q2 2026 $2.39B +15% Q3 2026 $2.46B +15% Q4 2026 $2.32B +14% Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast. #### The quarter forecast, line by line | Line | Q3 2026 reported | Q4 2025 reported | Q4 2026 forecast | Q1 2026 reported | Q1 2027 forecast | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Net sales | $2.46B | $2.03B | $2.32B | $2.20B | $2.46B | | Sales growth, year on year | +15% | +11% | +14% | +12% | +12% | | Cost of sales | $1.36B | $1.13B | $1.29B | $1.22B | $1.37B | | Gross profit | $1.10B | $0.90B | $1.03B | $0.98B | $1.09B | | Gross margin | 44.8% | 44.3% | 44.4% | 44.6% | 44.3% | | Selling, general, and administrative expenses | $574M | $514M | $563M | $535M | $583M | | Operating income | $531M | $384M | $465M | $448M | $508M | | Operating margin | 21.5% | 19.0% | 20.1% | 20.3% | 20.6% | | Interest income | $1.20M | $1.20M | $1.22M | $1.60M | $1.28M | | Interest expense | $0.80M | $0.90M | $0.87M | $0.80M | $0.85M | | Income before income taxes | $531M | $385M | $466M | $448M | $508M | | Income tax expense | $130M | $91M | $114M | $109M | $125M | | Tax rate | 24.4% | 23.6% | 24.6% | 24.2% | 24.6% | | Net income | $402M | $294M | $351M | $340M | $383M | | Diluted weighted average shares outstanding (in shares) | 1.15B | 1.15B | 1.15B | 1.15B | 1.15B | | Diluted EPS | $0.35 | $0.26 | $0.31 | $0.30 | $0.33 | The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments. #### What it rests on **Third-quarter daily sales growth** 15.5%, led by share gains with larger customers “Daily sales increased 15.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by share gains with larger customers, pricing actions, and broad-based demand across core end markets.” October 2026 earnings release **September growth** 14.4%, below July and August, as last year's price increases are lapped “September still was a strong month at 14-4, but it was below July and August. And we're starting to lapse in pricing” October 2026 earnings call **Timing gain not repeating** About 20 basis points of third-quarter gross margin was timing “About 20 basis points of this 40 reflect timing across these items and should not be assumed to continue in the underlying gross margin run rate.” October 2026 earnings call **Last year's timing drag** 50 basis points of one-off gross margin drag in late 2025 “And it was a negative 50 basis points the way we described it last year.” October 2026 earnings call **Ongoing tax rate** About 24.6% “We believe our ongoing tax rate, absent any discrete tax items or broader changes to tax law, will be approximately 24.6%.” October 2026 earnings release #### Low and high Base $2.32B sales, $0.31 diluted EPS: the story above. **$128M** Capital spending **$289M** Free cash flow Cash walk not supplied by every model. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$2.22B** sales · −4% vs base **$0.27** EPS · −12% vs base Sales would have to fall to about $2.2B, 4.2% below the base and 9.9% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.27, 12% lower. That needs September's slowdown to deepen as price increases fade, fuel costs to widen the gap between prices and costs, and holiday shutdowns to run deeper than usual. Sol and Muse Wonder go furthest on earnings, to $0.26: Muse Wonder adds gross margin falling more than sixty basis points with overhead savings fading, and Sol lets operating margins 'retreat toward 18%'. Fourth-quarter sales fell 5.0% from the third quarter in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, so a dip is normal; a drop near 9.9% would be about twice as steep. - **September's slowdown deepens as the price boost fades *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** price increases fading while fuel costs stay high - **Grok 4.7** Price increases fail to cover costs once last year's increases are lapped - **Muse Wonder** Daily sales growth falls to high single digits as manufacturing and construction soften - **Fuel costs widen the gap between prices and costs *3 of 6*** - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Elevated freight and fuel costs compressing distribution margins while customer mix headwinds persist - **Grok 4.7** Fuel and oil stay expensive and slow factory output - **GLM 5.3** Energy shock and higher rates stall manufacturing activity (PMI back below 50), ending the market tailwind - **Overhead savings fade *2 of 6*** - **Muse Wonder** Selling, general and administrative leverage fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Loss of labor and occupancy cost leverage - **Deeper holiday shutdowns *1 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Deeper holiday shutdowns and a soft construction season The six lows run from $2.18B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $2.25B (GLM 5.3). First sign October daily sales, published in early November 2026, growing well under 10% from a year earlier. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$2.40B** sales · +4% vs base **$0.34** EPS · +10% vs base Sales would have to reach about $2.4B, 3.8% above the base and only 2.4% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.34, 10% higher. Large-customer wins and data-center work would keep growth in the mid-teens, prices would catch up with costs, and overhead would keep growing slower than sales. Muse Wonder goes furthest, to $2.5B and $0.36, because it holds that 'Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps', a bigger size on growth than the others' near 14%. Third-quarter operating margin reached 21.5%, with overhead at 23.3% of sales against 24.6% a year earlier, so extra sales now turn into profit quickly. - **Large-customer wins keep growth in the mid-teens *3 of 6*** - **Muse Wonder** Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps - **Grok 4.7** Data-center construction stays strong and share gains stay in the mid-teens - **Opus 5.5** accelerating large-customer and data-center wins - **Prices catch up with costs *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Price versus cost returns to neutral - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Successful price realization outpacing supplier cost inflation, returning price/cost to positive territory - **GLM 5.3** Price/cost flips to a tailwind as pricing catches up with fuel and product inflation - **Overhead keeps growing slower than sales *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** stronger overhead leverage - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Sales growth continues to outpace hiring and facility costs - **Grok 4.7** Strong leverage on selling costs The six highs run from $2.33B (GLM 5.3) to $2.45B (Muse Wonder). First sign October daily sales, published in early November 2026, holding at or above 15% growth. #### Watch Monthly sales reports in early November, December and January show whether daily growth holds near 14% or slips under 10%. The fourth-quarter release in mid-January 2027 shows whether gross margin holds near 44% and whether the gap between prices and costs keeps closing. ### Q1 2027 · the quarter after ##### Sales PricedIn **$2.46B** $2.33B – $2.58B $2.33B $2.46B $2.58B ##### diluted EPS PricedIn **$0.33** $0.29 – $0.37 $0.29 $0.33 $0.37 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. All models expect a rebound and differ on its size. Muse Wonder is lowest at $2.4B, cautious because 'The device signings goal was cut by one thousand units' and 'embedded growth is not accelerating.' Sol is highest at $2.5B, rebounding 'about 13% above its year-earlier sales' as customer spending supplies 'roughly 8 to 10 percentage points of annual growth.' Muse Wonder's earnings range, $0.27 to $0.39, is widest: its low has 'Selling, general and administrative leverage fades'; its high has 'Selling expense grows well below sales'. Sales should rebound about 6.3% from the fourth quarter to $2.5B in early 2027, with earnings per share near $0.33. Sales **$2.46B** $2.33B – $2.58B · +12% on Q1 2026 ($2.20B) Diluted EPS **$0.33** $0.29 – $0.37 · +11% on Q1 2026 ($0.30) #### Investment and cash generation Capital spending: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. The first quarter usually rebounds from the holiday lull: sales rose 8.6% from the fourth quarter in 2026 and 7.4% in 2025. The models expect a smaller step this time, about 6.3%, to $2.5B, because the boost from last year's price increases will largely have been lapped. Management told investors the most important numbers are moving into the fourth quarter and especially the first. It expects share gains with large customers to continue, and it holds itself to an internal goal of 10 percentage points of growth a year, which it says is not guidance. Most models see price adding about 1 point of growth in 2027. Share gains, with contract customers growing near 19%, and data-center work, which management puts at four to five points of growth, have to carry the rest. Earnings per share rise about 9.2% from the fourth quarter to $0.33 as sales recover over a mostly fixed cost base. The models split on how much: Sol sees 13%, while GLM sees 6.7% and Muse Wonder 6.5%. About $0.33 comes from sales of $2.5B at an operating margin near 21%, a 24.6% tax rate and a nearly flat share count. #### What it rests on **Management's focus** The fourth quarter and especially the first quarter matter most “the most important numbers are moving into Q4 and more importantly into Q1” October 2026 earnings call **Internal growth goal** 10 percentage points of growth every year, not guidance “we expect our success, we think, in any environment should be 10 percentage point top line improvement each and every year. That's what we hold ourselves accountable for internally, but that's not a forecaster guidance either.” October 2026 earnings call **Data-center contribution** About four to five points of growth “Right now, internally, we look at about four to five percentage points of our growth.” October 2026 earnings call, chief executive **Third-quarter price contribution** About 240 basis points of growth “The impact of product pricing on net sales in the third quarter of 2026 was an increase of approximately 240 basis points” October 2026 earnings release **Customer mix on margin** 50 to 60 basis points of gross margin a year “you would on a year-over-year basis typically expect a starting point of a 50 to 60 basis point headwind on our gross margin.” October 2026 earnings call, finance chief #### Low and high Base $2.46B sales, $0.33 diluted EPS: the story above. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$2.33B** sales · −5% vs base **$0.29** EPS · −12% vs base Sales would have to slip to about $2.3B, 5.1% below the base and only 0.9% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $0.29, 12% lower and 4.0% below the fourth quarter. That means almost no seasonal rebound: factory demand stalling under costly fuel and high rates, price increases ending before new volume replaces them, and overhead savings fading. Muse Wonder goes furthest on earnings, to $0.27, because it combines overhead leverage that 'fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high' with gross margin falling more than sixty basis points. In the last two years the first quarter rose 8.6% and 7.4% from the fourth; a rebound under 1% would break that pattern. - **Factory demand stalls under costly fuel and high rates *4 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Fuel and oil stay expensive and slow factory output - **GLM 5.3** Energy shock and higher rates stall manufacturing activity - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Macroeconomic slowdown in US industrial production leading to industrial plant volume curtailments - **Opus 5.5** slower factory activity and construction - **Price boost ends before volume replaces it *3 of 6*** - **Opus 5.5** price increases fading while fuel costs stay high - **GLM 5.3** The tariff-driven pricing wave reverses as IEEPA tariffs are struck down and refunds flow, taking pricing to zero or negative - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Fewer new contracts and less spending at existing sites - **Overhead savings fade *2 of 6*** - **Muse Wonder** Selling, general and administrative leverage fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Loss of labor and occupancy cost leverage The six lows run from $2.28B (Muse Wonder) to $2.38B (Gemini 3.8 Flash). First sign December daily sales, published in early January 2027, growing well under 10% from a year earlier. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$2.58B** sales · +5% vs base **$0.37** EPS · +12% vs base Sales would have to reach about $2.6B, 4.7% above the base and 11% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $0.37, 12% higher. Contract wins would need to ramp faster, data-center and factory investment stay strong, and prices return to covering costs early in 2027. Sol and Muse Wonder go furthest, to $0.39: Sol assumes 'Faster rollout of large contracts and additional spending at existing sites', a bigger size on share gains than the others, and Muse Wonder keeps daily sales 'in the mid teens'. Contract customers grew 18.8% in the third quarter and make up more than three-quarters of sales, so faster rollouts move the total quickly. - **Contract wins ramp faster at large sites *3 of 6*** - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster rollout of large contracts and additional spending at existing sites - **Muse Wonder** Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps - **Opus 5.5** accelerating large-customer and data-center wins - **Prices cover costs early in 2027 *3 of 6*** - **Muse Wonder** Price cost turns neutral in early 2027 and sourcing benefits persist - **GLM 5.3** tariff refunds return in early 2027 - **Grok 4.7** Price versus cost returns to neutral - **Factory orders turn into production *3 of 6*** - **Grok 4.7** Factory orders and a firm purchasing-managers' reading convert into higher production - **Gemini 3.8 Flash** Accelerated industrial activity and manufacturing capex cycle boosting core fastener and direct materials demand - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Sustained data-center and industrial investment The six highs run from $2.50B (GLM 5.3) to $2.65B (GPT-6.1 Sol). First sign January 2027 daily sales, published in early February, growing faster than the third quarter's 15.5%. #### Watch The fourth-quarter release in mid-January 2027 should say whether the gap between prices and costs is closing. Monthly sales for January and February 2027 show whether the rebound runs near 6.3% or stalls; the first-quarter release in April 2027 settles it.