RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T165607768286Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
FQ3'26 revenue, $ thousands (3M ended 3/27/26)
1,214,293
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000043
FQ3'26 GAAP diluted EPS
3.45
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000010
FQ3'26 non-GAAP net income, $ thousands
134,864
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000064
Q4 FY26 revenue guidance low end, $ billions ($1.25B to $1.29B)
1.25
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 revenue guidance high end, $ billions
1.29
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS guidance low end ($3.48 to $3.63)
3.48
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance low end ($3.72 to $3.87)
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance high end
3.87
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
9M FY26 net cash provided by operating activities, $ thousands
201,758
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000047
FQ3'26 net cash provided by operating activities, $ thousands
52,931
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000068
FQ3'26 purchase of property, plant and equipment, $ thousands
63,760
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000068
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at 3/27/26, USD
357,256,000
0001408710-26-000016 · 0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000140
Total shareholders' equity at 3/27/26, $ thousands
2,304,711
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000039
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,320 | +8.7% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,162 | +8.6% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 158 | +9.7% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 26 | +5.0% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 133 | +10.7% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 8 | +1.1% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 1 | -85.7% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 141 | +5.2% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 10 | +9.6% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 131 | +4.9% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | +0.1% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.61 | +4.6% |
Bridge: net income 131 + share_based_comp_cost_of_revenues 3 + share_based_comp_sga 6 + severance_legal_and_litigation 0 = non-GAAP net income 141 ÷ 36M shares = 3.88 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 131 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 19 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 9 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | -69 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 90 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -65 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 10 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -55 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -0 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -2 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -2 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -0 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 32 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 390 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,294 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,684 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,245 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,558 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -120 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,439 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,400 | 1,330–1,480 | 4.08 | 12.0% | 10.1% | -60 | 50 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,480 | 1,390–1,585 | 4.30 | 12.0% | 10.1% | -60 | 60 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,540 | 1,420–1,665 | 4.47 | 12.0% | 10.2% | -70 | 60 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,600 | 1,450–1,755 | 4.63 | 12.0% | 10.2% | -70 | 70 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,645 | 4,607–4,697 | 13.87 | 13.73–14.09 | -226 | 66 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 6,020 | 5,580–6,500 | 17.40 | 15.90–19.20 | -260 | 240 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 7,000 | 6,250–7,800 | 19.90 | 17.30–22.80 | -280 | 360 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 7,800 | 6,800–8,900 | 22.00 | 18.30–25.80 | -300 | 460 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
CEO: 'several new customer agreements, particularly in the datacom market, to further strengthen our growth trajectory as we move into the fourth quarter and beyond' — datacom re-acceleration on top of telecom/DCI strength
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000005 · horizon FQ4'26 through FY27
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
Capacity expansion underway: 9M FY26 capex of $160.6M (vs $70.7M prior year) plus $65.3M of fixed-asset payables — Building 10 in Chonburi and US footprint build-out continue into FY27
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000047 · horizon FY26-FY28
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, horizons.fy2.capex
Inventory build of $297M in 9M FY26 ahead of program ramps — pre-positioned materials convert to revenue and then to cash as ramps mature, normalizing working capital
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000047 · horizon FQ4'26-FY27
flows into: cash_flow.cfo, cash_flow.other_operating, horizons.fy1.cfo
Non-GAAP definition excludes SBC, severance, legal/litigation and restructuring; guided bridge of $0.24/share for Q4
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000072 · horizon FQ4'26
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, headline.eps_adjusted
Debt-free balance sheet with $945.9M cash+investments and an ongoing share repurchase program (9M buybacks $5.2M) supporting opportunistic returns
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000039 · horizon FY27-FY29
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, horizons.fy1.cff, horizons.fy1.total_equity
Q4 revenue ≥ $1.32B with datacom revenue re-accelerating sequentially (above FQ3's $260.4M), confirming the new 1.6T/datacom program ramps
checkable at: Q4 FY26 8-K earnings release and investor presentation product-category table (Aug 2026)
FY27 Q1 CFO ≥ $100M with inventory growth slowing below revenue growth (working-capital conversion beginning)
checkable at: Q1 FY27 8-K cash flow statement (Nov 2026)
Non-GAAP operating margin ≥ 11.0% on >$1.4B quarterly revenue, evidence of scale leverage above the 10.5-10.7% band
checkable at: Q1/Q2 FY27 8-K non-GAAP reconciliation
Q1 FY27 revenue guidance below $1.30B (sequential decline), signaling a pause in datacom/DCI ramps or an inventory-digestion phase at the lead AI customer
checkable at: Q4 FY26 8-K Business Outlook section (Aug 2026)
Non-GAAP gross margin below 11.6% for two consecutive quarters (ramp inefficiency plus Thai baht strength overwhelming pricing)
checkable at: Q1 and Q2 FY27 8-K non-GAAP reconciliations
Inventories rising above $1.1B while quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% sequentially, or FY27 FCF running below $50M/quarter after FQ2'27
checkable at: FY27 10-Qs balance sheet and cash flow statements
What must be true: The AI-driven optical cycle (1.6T datacom transceivers, DCI/telecom systems, HPC assemblies) must continue ramping through FY27 with Fabrinet retaining sole/lead manufacturing positions at its top customers (NVIDIA, Cisco, Lumentum, Ciena, Amazon programs); gross margin must hold near 12% despite ramp costs and baht exposure; and the $300M+ working-capital investment must convert to cash as programs mature rather than signal demand overshoot.
FN reports Q4 FY26 (June-quarter) after beating the high end of guidance in each of the last several quarters. Guidance is $1.25-1.29B revenue and $3.72-3.87 non-GAAP EPS; we model $1,320M and $3.88 — another modest beat driven by the 1.6T datacom ramp (CEO flagged 'several new customer agreements, particularly in datacom'), continued DCI momentum ($196.9M in Q3, +38% q/q), and HPC scaling ($106.7M in Q3 from zero a year ago). Three things matter: (1) datacom trajectory — the segment has been flat-to-down ($260M in Q3) while telecom carried growth; evidence the new programs are converting is the single biggest driver of the FY27 outlook; (2) gross margin — GAAP GM slipped to 11.9% in Q3 on ramp costs; holding ~12% on 9% sequential growth would confirm scale leverage; (3) cash conversion — 9M FCF of just $41M on a $297M inventory build; a Q4 CFO print near $90M+ would show working capital cresting. The reaction will hinge less on the Q4 print than on Q1 FY27 guidance: we expect $1.35-1.39B revenue and $3.95-4.10 non-GAAP EPS. A guide implying continued mid-single-digit sequential growth with stable margins keeps the AI-optics thesis intact; a flat guide or margin walk-down would hit the stock hard given expectations embedded after a +39% y/y Q3.
Revenue: FN beat its guidance high end in FQ2 (printed $1,133M) and FQ3 ($1,214M, +39% y/y). Q4 guide is $1.25-1.29B; given ramping 1.6T datacom, DCI (+38% q/q in Q3), HPC, and the CEO's explicit new-agreement commentary, I model $1,320M (+8.7% q/q), ~2% above the high end — consistent with the recent beat cadence but tempered because sequential adds moderated from +$155M (Q2) to +$81M (Q3). Margins: GAAP GM 12.0% (Q3 11.9%, Q2 12.2%); SG&A $25.5M; GAAP op margin 10.1%, non-GAAP ~10.7% (matching Q3 and the guidance framework). Below the line: interest income $7.5M, FX +$1.0M (unpredictable; Q3 +$7.0M, long-run near zero), tax ~7% (9M rate 6.1%, Q4 typically slightly higher). GAAP NI $131.3M → $3.61 EPS on 36.35M shares. Bridge: SBC $9.1M plus ~$0.5M severance/legal → non-GAAP NI $140.9M → $3.88, just above the guided high of $3.87. Cash flow: working-capital drag eases from Q3's extreme (-$98.6M other-operating) but AR grows with revenue; CFO $90M, capex $65M (elevated expansion run-rate), FCF $25M; ST-investment maturities net +$10M; minimal buybacks. Balance sheet rolls forward mechanically: cash $389.5M, retained earnings $2,558.1M, equity $2,438.6M, liabilities $1,245M (AP growth with volume). FY27: I model +30% growth to $6.02B — slower than FY26's +36% but sustained by full-year contribution of new datacom programs, DCI, and HPC; margins held at ~12.0% GAAP GM / 10.2% GAAP OM with slight leverage; working capital normalizes, lifting CFO to ~$500M and FCF to ~$240M despite $260M capex. FY28/FY29 decelerate to +16%/+11% as the 1.6T cycle matures and comps steepen, with FCF conversion improving as capex plateaus. Key risks to my p50: customer inventory digestion in AI optics (downside), faster-than-expected 1.6T/HPC ramp or co-packaged-optics-related share gains (upside).
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T165607768286Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T165607768286Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.