RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T181624864427Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q3 FY26 GAAP Net Income
125.2
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000009
Q3 FY26 Diluted EPS
3.45
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000010
Q3 FY26 Non-GAAP Net Income
134.9
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000012
Q3 FY26 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000013
Q4 FY26 Revenue Guidance Low ($B)
1.25
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 Revenue Guidance High ($B)
1.29
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS Guidance Low
3.48
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS Guidance High
3.63
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q4 FY26 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance Low
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
Q4 FY26 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance High
3.87
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,275 | +5.0% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,122 | +4.9% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 152 | +5.7% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 26 | +5.0% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 127 | +5.8% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 8 | +1.1% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 3 | -57.1% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 137 | +2.3% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 9 | +3.0% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 128 | +2.2% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | +0.1% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.52 | +2.1% |
Bridge: net income 128 + share_based_comp 9 + legal_and_litigation 0 + severance_and_others 0 = non-GAAP net income 137 ÷ 36M shares = 3.77 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 128 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 18 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 9 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | -80 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 75 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -65 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 20 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -45 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -10 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -1 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -11 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -1 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 18 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 375 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,302 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,677 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,250 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,545 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -118 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,427 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,320 | 1,290–1,355 | 3.92 | 12.0% | 10.0% | -60 | 25 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,380 | 1,340–1,425 | 4.10 | 12.1% | 10.1% | -55 | 40 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,430 | 1,380–1,480 | 4.25 | 12.2% | 10.2% | -50 | 55 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,490 | 1,430–1,550 | 4.42 | 12.2% | 10.2% | -50 | 65 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,600 | 4,585–4,620 | 13.75 | 13.65–13.90 | -226 | 51 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 5,620 | 5,440–5,810 | 16.69 | 16.10–17.40 | -215 | 185 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 6,400 | 6,100–6,750 | 19.10 | 18.20–20.20 | -230 | 250 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 7,250 | 6,800–7,750 | 21.85 | 20.50–23.40 | -250 | 320 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Building 9 expansion in Chonburi, Thailand to support next-generation optical and high-performance computing manufacturing programs
Q3 FY26 10-Q Item 2 MD&A / Investor Presentation · horizon FY2026-FY2027
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy1.capex
Ramp of high-speed datacom 800G and 1.6T transceiver packaging programs and high-performance computing interconnect customer agreements
Q3 FY26 Earnings Release Commentary · horizon FY2026-FY2027
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
Datacom revenue quarterly growth exceeding 15% sequential alongside non-GAAP gross margins expanding above 12.3%
checkable at: Q1 FY27 Form 10-Q / 8-K
Free cash flow generation exceeding $60M per quarter as working capital investments normalize
checkable at: Q2 FY27 Form 10-Q
Non-GAAP operating margin contracting below 10.0% due to unabsorbed fixed costs or unfavorable customer mix shifts
checkable at: Q1 FY27 Form 10-Q / 8-K
Quarterly sequential revenue decline in optical communications reflecting loss of key AI/datacenter transceiver manufacturing share
checkable at: Q2 FY27 Form 10-Q
What must be true: Fabrinet must maintain its dominant competitive moat in complex high-precision optical packaging for leading hyperscaler and AI networking OEMs, successfully transitioning from 800G to 1.6T programs while ramping new HPC accounts and preserving ~12% gross margin and ~10.5%+ non-GAAP operating margin.
Fabrinet enters the Q4 FY26 print with strong momentum driven by rapid scaling in AI-driven optical transceivers (800G/1.6T) and high-performance computing interconnect assemblies. We project Q4 FY26 revenue of $1,275M (midpoint of $1,250M–$1,290M guidance) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.77 (vs. $3.72–$3.87 guidance range). Key focus areas for the print will be: (1) Datacom trajectory and progress on onboarding new customer programs; (2) Non-optical HPC segment ramp; and (3) Q1 FY27 guidance, which we expect to guide solidly higher to $1.30B–$1.34B.
Fabrinet's position as the mission-critical manufacturing partner for advanced optical transceivers and high-speed interconnects positions it well to capture secular AI datacenter growth. While working capital build and Building 9 capex created temporary FCF headwinds in early FY26, operating leverage and steady ~12% gross margins continue to translate top-line strength into consistent double-digit EPS expansion.
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T181624864427Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T181624864427Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.