RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T165517722633Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
FQ3 2026 revenue, USD thousands
1,214,293
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000043
FQ3 2026 GAAP net income, USD millions
125.2
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000009
FQ3 2026 GAAP diluted EPS
3.45
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000010
FQ3 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000013
FQ3 2026 GAAP gross profit, USD thousands
144,339
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000043
FQ3 2026 GAAP operating income, USD thousands
120,044
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000043
FQ3 2026 operating cash flow, USD thousands
52,931
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000068
FQ4 2026 revenue guidance low, USD billions
1.25
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
FQ4 2026 revenue guidance high, USD billions
1.29
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
FQ4 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance low
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
FQ4 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance high
3.87
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
FQ3 2026 quarter-end total assets, USD thousands
3,508,986
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000039
FQ3 2026 quarter-end shareholders equity, USD thousands
2,304,711
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000039
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,305 | +7.5% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,149 | +7.4% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 156 | +7.8% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 25 | +3.7% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 130 | +8.6% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 7 | -8.4% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 2 | -64.2% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 140 | +3.9% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 6 | -35.8% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 134 | +6.8% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | -0.0% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.68 | +6.8% |
Bridge: net income 134 + share_based_compensation 9 + legal_and_litigation 0 + severance_and_other 0 + restructuring 0 = non-GAAP net income 144 ÷ 36M shares = 3.96 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 134 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 18 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 9 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | 9 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 170 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -68 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 20 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -48 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -0 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -2 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -3 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -2 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 117 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 474 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,204 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,678 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,225 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,560 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -107 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,453 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,365 | 1,300–1,430 | 4.18 | 12.1% | 10.1% | -75 | 85 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,435 | 1,350–1,520 | 4.38 | 12.1% | 10.2% | -70 | 100 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,500 | 1,400–1,600 | 4.58 | 12.1% | 10.2% | -65 | 115 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,565 | 1,445–1,685 | 4.78 | 12.1% | 10.3% | -60 | 135 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,630 | 4,590–4,670 | 13.95 | 13.72–14.17 | -229 | 143 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 5,865 | 5,450–6,280 | 17.92 | 15.60–20.10 | -270 | 435 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 6,900 | 6,100–7,750 | 21.80 | 18.10–25.40 | -250 | 600 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 7,800 | 6,650–9,100 | 24.80 | 19.60–30.20 | -230 | 750 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
FN entered into a roughly $132.5 million contract for a new Chonburi manufacturing building and had $164.7 million of total capital-expenditure commitments at March 27, 2026.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000323 · horizon FY2026-FY2028
flows into: cash_flow.capex, quarterly_path.fq1_27.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, horizons.fy2.capex
The new Chonburi facility is approximately 2.0 million square feet; management said existing capacity covers at least the next few quarters.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000504 · horizon FY2027-FY2029
flows into: quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue, horizons.fy3.capex
Management expects several new customer agreements, particularly in datacom, to strengthen growth into Q4 and beyond.
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000005 · horizon FQ4 2026-FY2027
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
Inventory was deliberately increased to support higher demand in the next quarter, implying a Q4 shipment ramp and potential working-capital release.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000508 · horizon FQ4 2026
flows into: income_statement.revenue, cash_flow.other_operating, cash_flow.cfo, headline.fcf
FN expects FY2026 SG&A to increase because of information-technology spending and employee costs.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000400 · horizon FY2026
flows into: income_statement.sga, income_statement.operating_income
Reported FQ4 revenue of at least $1.31 billion, non-GAAP EPS of at least $3.95, and FQ1 revenue guidance with a midpoint of at least $1.34 billion.
checkable at: FQ4 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K
FY2027 quarterly revenue growth remains above 20% year over year while GAAP operating margin is at least 10.0% and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow exceeds $350 million.
checkable at: Each FY2027 Form 10-Q, with the full-year test at the FY2027 Form 10-K
FQ4 revenue is below $1.25 billion or non-GAAP diluted EPS is below $3.72, indicating that the inventory build and announced ramps did not convert.
checkable at: FQ4 2026 earnings release and accompanying Form 8-K
Two consecutive reported quarters show revenue growth below 10%, GAAP gross margin below 11.5%, or cumulative free cash flow below zero.
checkable at: FY2027 Forms 10-Q
FY2027 capital expenditures exceed $350 million while FY2027 free cash flow is below $250 million, signaling materially weaker returns on the capacity program.
checkable at: FY2027 Form 10-K
What must be true: Telecom/DCI demand must remain strong while new datacom and high-performance-computing programs scale fast enough to offset normalization in mature datacom and automotive programs. FN must hold roughly 12% GAAP gross margin despite Thai wage inflation and new-facility costs, and the large inventory and capital program must translate into shipment growth and materially better cash conversion.
FN enters fiscal Q4 with unusually strong momentum: Q3 revenue grew 39% year over year, telecom and DCI were the principal optical engines, and high-performance computing added a second growth vector in non-optical. I forecast $1.305 billion of revenue and $3.96 of non-GAAP EPS, both above management's ranges, as inventory built for higher near-term demand converts into shipments and newly signed datacom programs begin ramping. The key swing factors are mix and cash conversion. Gross margin should remain near 12%, with scale benefits offset by labor inflation, ramp inefficiency and facility spending. I expect working-capital normalization to lift operating cash flow to $170 million and free cash flow to $102 million after elevated capex. The reaction should depend less on a modest Q4 beat than on the FQ1 outlook: guidance with a revenue midpoint around $1.34 billion or better would validate that telecom, DCI, HPC and new datacom wins can sustain the trajectory. A weak guide or another quarter of inventory consumption without cash release would challenge that view.
The forecast starts from filed nine-month FY2026 revenue of $3.325 billion and Q3 revenue of $1.214 billion. The reviewed product-category visuals show telecom rising to $628.3 million, DCI to $196.9 million and HPC to $106.7 million in Q3, while traditional datacom and automotive were softer. I place Q4 revenue $35 million above guidance's high end because management explicitly cited ongoing ramps, new datacom agreements and inventory accumulated for higher next-quarter demand. I hold GAAP gross margin near Q3 at 11.92%, rather than assuming major mix expansion, and model higher SG&A for IT and labor. Adjusted EPS adds $9.9 million of exclusions, broadly consistent with Q3's $9.651 million reconciliation. Cash flow assumes partial reversal of the Q3 working-capital drag, offset by $68 million of capex. Longer-term growth moderates as the current optical cycle matures, while the Chonburi expansion keeps capex elevated through FY2028 and supports the FY2027-FY2029 revenue path.
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T165517722633Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T165517722633Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.