RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T170841436298Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q3 FY26 GAAP net income ($M)
125.2
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000009
Q3 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS ($)
3.45
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Q3 FY26 non-GAAP net income ($M)
134.9
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Q3 FY26 non-GAAP diluted EPS ($)
3.72
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Q4 FY26 revenue guidance low ($B)
1.25
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Q4 FY26 revenue guidance high ($B)
1.29
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Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS guidance low ($)
3.48
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Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS guidance high ($)
3.63
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Q4 FY26 guided diluted shares (M)
36.3
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Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance high ($)
3.87
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Q3 FY26 YoY revenue increase ($M)
342.5
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Q3 FY26 YoY revenue growth (%)
39.3
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Q3 FY26 optical communications revenue ($M)
888.7
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Q3 FY26 optical mix (%)
73.2
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Q3 FY26 non-optical revenue ($M)
325.6
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Q3 FY26 effective tax rate (%)
6.7
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Chonburi new building expected cost ($M)
132.5
0001408710-26-000016 · 0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000504
Raytek 16% stake purchase price ($M)
32.4
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Q3 FY26 cash + ST investments ($M)
945.2
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Q4 FY26 guided SBC + other add-back per share ($)
0.24
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Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,280 | +5.4% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,125 | +5.2% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 155 | +7.3% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 25 | +2.1% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 130 | +8.4% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 7 | -7.0% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 1 | -85.7% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 138 | +2.7% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 9 | -0.8% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 129 | +2.9% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | -0.0% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.55 | +2.9% |
Bridge: net income 129 + share_based_compensation 9 + legal_and_litigation 0 = non-GAAP net income 138 ÷ 36M shares = 3.80 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 129 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 18 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 9 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | -70 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 86 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -55 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 15 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -40 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -2 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -5 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -7 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -0 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 39 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 396 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,322 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,718 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,280 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,554 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -116 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,438 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,315 | 1,260–1,380 | 3.92 | 12.0% | 10.0% | -48 | 50 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,365 | 1,295–1,450 | 4.10 | 12.1% | 10.1% | -45 | 70 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,405 | 1,325–1,500 | 4.25 | 12.1% | 10.2% | -42 | 83 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,450 | 1,360–1,560 | 4.42 | 12.1% | 10.2% | -40 | 100 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,605 | 4,540–4,680 | 13.79 | 13.20–14.30 | -216 | 72 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 5,535 | 5,200–5,900 | 16.69 | 15.20–18.20 | -175 | 303 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 6,360 | 5,800–7,000 | 19.40 | 17.00–22.00 | -160 | 400 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 7,120 | 6,400–8,000 | 22.10 | 19.00–25.50 | -150 | 490 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Construction of a new ~2.0 million sq ft manufacturing facility at the Chonburi campus began February 2025; total expected project cost is approximately $132.5 million.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000504 · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy1.capex
Several new customer agreements, particularly in datacom, are expected to strengthen the growth trajectory in the fourth quarter and beyond.
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000005 · horizon q4-fy1
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
FY2026 SG&A expenses are expected to increase versus FY2025, mainly from IT and employee costs.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000400 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.sga, horizons.fy0.operating_income
Preferential Thai BOI tax exemption on certain Chonburi production is available through June 2026; Building 9 income is tax-exempt through 2031, capped at actual investment.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000432 · horizon fy0-fy3
flows into: income_statement.income_tax, horizons.fy1.net_income, horizons.fy2.net_income
Share purchase agreement dated March 25, 2026 to acquire a 16.0% equity interest in Raytek Semiconductor for approximately $32.4 million, subject to closing conditions.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000377 · horizon q4
flows into: cash_flow.other_investing, cash_flow.cfi
Management believes current manufacturing capacity is sufficient for at least the next few quarters while the Chonburi building is completed.
0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000504 · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, cash_flow.capex
Q4 FY26 revenue at or above $1,280 million (above the $1.27 billion guide midpoint) with non-GAAP diluted EPS at or above $3.80
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K / EX-99.1
Q4 FY26 free cash flow (CFO plus capex) turns positive after Q3's $(10.829) million
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K free-cash-flow reconciliation
Q1 FY27 issued revenue guidance low end at or above $1,310 million
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K Business Outlook section
Datacom revenue inflects sequentially higher versus Q3's $260.4 million and HPC revenue prints above $110 million
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings presentation product-category table
Q4 FY26 revenue below the $1.25 billion guidance low end
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K / EX-99.1
Q4 FY26 GAAP gross margin below 11.5% (Q3 was 11.9%) as HPC/PCBA mix dilutes
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K income statement
Q4 FY26 free cash flow more negative than $(20) million on another inventory/receivable build
checkable at: FY26 Q4 earnings 8-K cash-flow statement
Effective tax rate prints above 10% in FY27 Q1 after the June 2026 Chonburi exemption rolls off
checkable at: FY27 Q1 10-Q MD&A income-tax discussion
What must be true: Telecom, DCI and HPC programs must keep compounding while the new datacom agreements actually ship in Q4/FY27; Chonburi spend converts into revenue without a lasting GM dilution below ~12% non-GAAP; Building 9 tax holiday holds the cash tax rate in the mid-single digits after June 2026; and working-capital intensity normalizes so FCF is sustainably positive as the $132.5 million building is completed.
Fabrinet reports Q4 FY26 against a $1.25–$1.29B / $3.72–$3.87 non-GAAP guide after a record $1,214.3M / $3.72 Q3 that already cleared the prior range. The tape is a high-quality beat-and-raise if telecom/DCI and HPC keep compounding and the new datacom agreements the CEO flagged actually ship. Three things decide it: (1) whether datacom inflects after two soft quarters (Q3 datacom $260M, only 29% of optical) as those new programs ramp; (2) whether HPC ($107M, up from $15M three quarters ago) and DCI ($197M) sustain sequential growth without starving gross margin — GAAP GM is already 11.9% and mix is shifting toward lower-complexity PCBA; (3) free cash flow, which was −$11M in Q3 on a $298M YTD inventory build and $64M of capex tied to the $132.5M Chonburi building. A clean print is revenue at/above $1.28B with non-GAAP EPS ≥ $3.80 and FCF flipping positive; a datacom miss plus another WC-driven FCF hole would re-rate the story even if the headline clears the low end of guide. Q1 FY27 guide is the tell for duration of the AI/optical cycle.
Q3 printed $1,214.3M / $3.72 non-GAAP, well ahead of the prior guide, on 39.3% YoY growth led by telecom, DCI ($196.9M) and HPC ($106.7M). Official Q4 guide is $1.25–$1.29B and $3.72–$3.87. I put revenue p50 at $1,280M — above the $1,270M midpoint — because FN has a multi-year beat habit, CEO commentary points to new datacom agreements shipping in Q4, and HPC/DCI are still sequential. I do not smash the high end: QoQ deceleration from +16% (Q1–Q2) to +7% (Q2–Q3) to a guided +3–6% is real, datacom has been soft, and auto is drifting down. Non-GAAP EPS p50 is $3.80, just above the $3.795 midpoint: volume leverage on a 12.1% GAAP GM and $24.8M SG&A is partly offset by the fade of Q3’s $7.0M FX gain and still-declining interest income. SBC + legal add-backs of $9.075M reconcilable to $3.80 on 36.3M shares. FCF p50 is +$31M as the Q3 inventory spike ($297M YTD) moderates, while Chonburi capex stays elevated at $55M (YTD already $161M of a $132.5M building plus customer tools). FY26 lands at $4.61B / $13.79 adj. EPS. FY27 assumes ~20% growth to $5.54B as datacom ramps and Chonburi comes online, then mid-teens / low-teens in FY28–29 as the AI optical cycle matures and buybacks scale. Tax rate stays mid-single-digit on the Building 9 holiday through 2031.
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T170841436298Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T170841436298Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.