RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T183438531109Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q4 FY26 guidance — revenue low ($B, as printed)
1.25
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 guidance — revenue high ($B, as printed)
1.29
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000016
Q4 FY26 guidance — GAAP diluted EPS low ($)
3.48
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q4 FY26 guidance — GAAP diluted EPS high ($)
3.63
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q4 FY26 guidance — non-GAAP diluted EPS low ($)
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
Q4 FY26 guidance — non-GAAP diluted EPS high ($)
3.87
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000018
Q4 FY26 guidance — fully diluted shares basis (M)
36.3
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000017
Q3 FY26 GAAP net income ($M, as printed)
125.2
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000009
Q3 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS ($)
3.45
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000010
Q3 FY26 non-GAAP net income ($M, as printed)
134.9
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000012
Q3 FY26 non-GAAP diluted EPS ($)
3.72
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000013
Q3 FY25 revenue comparative ($M, as printed)
871.8
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000008
Q4 FY26 guidance bridge — SBC EPS adjustment ($)
0.24
0001408710-26-000014 · 0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000072
Chonburi campus new manufacturing building — construction start year
2,025
0001408710-26-000016 · 0001408710-26-000016:fn-20260327.htm:b0000597
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,275 | +5.0% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,123 | +5.0% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 152 | +5.3% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 25 | +2.9% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 127 | +5.8% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 10 | +28.0% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 136 | +1.5% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 9 | -0.3% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 127 | +1.7% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | -0.0% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.51 | +1.7% |
Bridge: net income 127 + share_based_compensation_cost_of_revenues 3 + share_based_compensation_sga 6 + legal_and_litigation 0 + severance_and_others 0 = non-GAAP net income 136 ÷ 36M shares = 3.76 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 127 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 18 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 9 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | -49 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 105 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -65 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 5 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -60 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -2 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -10 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -12 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -1 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 32 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 389 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,321 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,710 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,255 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,552 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -98 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,455 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,330 | 1,295–1,365 | 3.97 | 12.2% | 10.2% | -60 | 58 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,405 | 1,310–1,500 | 4.25 | 12.3% | 10.3% | -58 | 70 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,460 | 1,360–1,560 | 4.47 | 12.3% | 10.5% | -55 | 85 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,535 | 1,430–1,640 | 4.76 | 12.4% | 10.6% | -52 | 100 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,600 | 4,580–4,620 | 13.75 | 13.70–13.80 | -226 | 81 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 5,730 | 5,350–6,110 | 17.45 | 16.30–18.60 | -225 | 313 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 6,700 | 6,050–7,350 | 21.20 | 19.30–23.10 | -240 | 460 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 7,700 | 6,700–8,700 | 25.00 | 22.00–28.00 | -250 | 640 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
CEO Grady: 'We expect several new customer agreements, particularly in the datacom market, to further strengthen our growth trajectory as we move into the fourth quarter and beyond.'
8-K EX-99.1, 2026-05-04, accession 0001408710-26-000014, block b0000005 · horizon fq4_26 through fy2
flows into: headline.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue
'We began construction of a new manufacturing building at our Chonburi campus in February 2025. We may continue to devote significant resources to the expansion of our manufacturing capacity' — sustained elevated capital intensity to support ramping programs.
10-Q for quarter ended March 27, 2026, accession 0001408710-26-000016, block b0000597 · horizon fy0 through fy3
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, horizons.fy2.capex, horizons.fy3.capex
High-performance computing products are a distinct, ramping revenue category (HPC revenue of $15.4M / $85.6M / $106.7M in F1Q26-F3Q26 per the Q3 FY26 investor deck), a second AI-driven growth engine alongside optical.
Q3 FY26 investor presentation page 12 (IR-OBSERVED ir:8dd8f0d1f1adf6640d47780ae8374e8b2dad6a8c31a7c3e1fa30bc660940c011); HPC product category defined in 10-Q accession 0001408710-26-000016, block b0000184 · horizon fy1 through fy3
flows into: quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue
Non-GAAP net income and EPS exclude share-based compensation, severance payment and others, restructuring and other related costs, and legal and litigation costs.
8-K EX-99.1, 2026-05-04, accession 0001408710-26-000014, block b0000030 · horizon all periods
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, cash_flow.share_based_comp
Datacom + HPC revenue inflects: total revenue ≥ $1.35B in FQ1 FY27 with non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 12.3% (evidence new AI datacom agreements are converting to revenue at accretive margins)
checkable at: FQ1 FY27 earnings 8-K (8-K Item 2.02, expected early November 2026)
Two consecutive quarters of non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 12.5% — a structural margin step-up from the 12.0-12.2% FY26 run-rate
checkable at: FQ2 FY27 earnings 8-K (expected early February 2027)
Quarterly non-GAAP free cash flow ≥ $100M, confirming working-capital normalization after the FY26 inventory build
checkable at: FQ1 FY27 8-K cash flow statement (expected early November 2026)
Revenue growth decelerates below 15% year-over-year in any reported quarter (would signal AI optics ramp maturing or share loss)
checkable at: Each quarterly 8-K earnings release, starting FQ1 FY27 (expected early November 2026)
Non-GAAP gross margin below 11.5% for two consecutive quarters (ramp under-absorption or pricing pressure at key customers)
checkable at: FQ2 FY27 earnings 8-K (expected early February 2027), confirming a trend begun in FQ1 FY27
FY27 capex exceeds $350M while FY27 revenue comes in below $5.4B — capacity overbuild versus demand, crushing FCF below ~3% of revenue
checkable at: FY27 Form 10-K (expected mid-August 2027)
Inventories growing more than 10 percentage points faster than revenue for two consecutive quarters (demand forecast miss / customer order pushouts)
checkable at: FQ2 FY27 Form 10-Q (expected early February 2027), following FQ1 FY27 10-Q
What must be true: AI datacenter optics demand keeps compounding: 800G/1.6T transceiver, DCI and HPC programs at Fabrinet's concentrated customer base (Nvidia, Cisco, Lumentum and the new datacom customers management cites) must keep ramping through FY27-29; the Chonburi capacity expansion must come online on schedule to relieve the current capacity constraint; non-GAAP gross margin must hold near 12% despite ramp and new-program drag; and the FY26 working-capital surge (inventories +$297M, receivables +$150M in 9M FY26) must normalize so FCF recovers toward 6-8% of revenue by FY28. If any leg fails — orders pause, margins slip below 11.5%, or inventory keeps outgrowing revenue — the growth and cash-flow paths in this forecast compress quickly given the stock's AI-driven expectations.
FN reports FQ4 (June) results Monday after the close. Setup: the AI-optics complex is red-hot and FN has beaten the top of its revenue guide three straight quarters (FQ1: $978M vs $940-980M; FQ2: $1,133M vs $1,050-1,100M; FQ3: $1,214M vs $1,150-1,200M). We model $1,275M — the midpoint of the $1.25-1.29B guide — and see bias to the high end given telecom/DCI momentum (DCI +38% q/q in FQ3) and management's commentary on new datacom agreements landing in FQ4. Three things decide the reaction: (1) the revenue print versus $1.29B — another high-end beat keeps the streak alive, but the bar is now high after a 39% y/y FQ3; (2) FQ1 FY27 guidance — anything below ~$1.30B reads as deceleration and will be punished; we expect $1.30-1.35B; (3) margins and cash — non-GAAP GM must hold ~12% while capex (~$65M/qtr) and the inventory build are scrutinized; FQ3 FCF was negative and investors want evidence the working-capital drag is peaking. GAAP EPS print we model at $3.51, non-GAAP at $3.76, both inside the guided ranges ($3.48-3.63 / $3.72-3.87).
Anchors are taken from FN's Q3 FY26 8-K EX-99.1 (accession 0001408710-26-000014): Q3 revenue $1,214.3M (39% y/y), GAAP NI $125.2M, GAAP EPS $3.45, non-GAAP NI $134.9M, non-GAAP EPS $3.72; balance sheet at 3/27/26 (total assets $3,509.0M, equity $2,304.7M, cash+restricted $357.3M, zero debt); 9M FY26 CFO $201.8M with capex $160.6M and a $297M inventory build; Q4 FY26 guidance of $1.25-1.29B revenue, GAAP EPS $3.48-3.63, non-GAAP EPS $3.72-3.87 on ~36.3M shares. Method: FN has beaten the top of its revenue guide three consecutive quarters (by $14-58M), and the CEO flagged new datacom agreements strengthening FQ4 and beyond, so my median of $1,275M sits at guidance midpoint with an upward-skewed band (p90 $1,295M, above the guide top; p10 $1,255M, inside the range). Gross margin: GAAP GM has run 11.9-12.2% for five quarters; I model 11.9% GAAP (12.1% non-GAAP) as DCI/HPC mix grows, with slight leverage on a fixed-cost base offset by ramp costs. SG&A grows modestly to $25.0M; restructuring zero. Interest income rises to $9.5M on the higher cash/investment balance; I normalize FX to zero (Q3's +$7.0M gain is volatile) — this is why my GAAP EPS of $3.51 sits low-of-mid in the $3.48-3.63 guided range while tracking the guidance bridge (SBC $0.24/sh) to $3.76 non-GAAP. Tax at ~6.6%, consistent with FY26. Cash flow: revenue +5% q/q forces continued AR/inventory build, so other_operating is -$49M and CFO $105M; capex $65M holds the elevated run-rate (Chonburi build); FCF $40M recovers from FQ3's -$10.8M but stays depressed by working capital. Financing: minimal buybacks, ~$10M RSU withholding taxes. Balance sheet rolls cleanly: cash $389.3M, RE $2,552.4M, equity $2,454.7M, assets $3,710.0M. Path: FY27 revenue $5.73B (+25%) on 800G/1.6T, DCI and HPC ramps, decelerating to +17% (FY28) and +15% (FY29) as the base grows; margins grind up ~10-20bps/yr with scale; capex stays ~4% of revenue then fades; FCF margin recovers to ~8% by FY29. Guidance I expect them to issue for FQ1 FY27: revenue $1.30-1.35B, non-GAAP EPS $3.85-4.00. Key risks to the distribution: customer concentration (top customers' AI capex), FX swings on the Thai baht, and timing of the working-capital unwind.
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T183438531109Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T183438531109Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.