RptdFinFcst · v5.6 corrected pre-print · sealed snap-1408710-20260817T170151141633Z
Fiscal 2026 Q4 and full year (quarter ended June 26, 2026), announced Aug 17 after the close; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T14:30:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q3 FY26 GAAP net income $125.2M
125.2
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Q3 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS $3.45
3.45
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Q3 FY26 non-GAAP diluted EPS $3.72
3.72
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Q4 FY26 revenue guidance low $1.25B
1.25
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Q4 FY26 revenue guidance high $1.29B
1.29
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Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS guidance low $3.48
3.48
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Q4 FY26 GAAP EPS guidance high $3.63
3.63
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Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance high $3.87
3.87
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Q3 FY25 revenue $871.8M prior-year compare
871.8
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Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,214 | 1,280 | +5.4% |
| Cost of revenues | 1,070 | 1,124 | +5.1% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 144 | 156 | +7.7% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 24 | 26 | +6.2% |
| Restructuring and other related costs | 0 | 0 | +0.0% |
| Operating income ✓ | 120 | 130 | +8.0% |
| Interest and other income, net | 7 | 7 | -3.0% |
| Foreign exchange gain (loss), net | 7 | 2 | -78.5% |
| Other income (expense), net | -0 | -0 | -5.7% |
| Income before income taxes ✓ | 134 | 138 | +2.9% |
| Income tax expense | 9 | 10 | +7.4% |
| Net income ✓ | 125 | 128 | +2.6% |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36 | 36 | +0.1% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) ✓ | 3.45 | 3.54 | +2.6% |
Bridge: net income 128 + share_based_compensation 8 + legal_and_severance 0 = non-GAAP net income 137 ÷ 36M shares = 3.78 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 125 | 128 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 18 | 18 |
| Share-based compensation | 8 | 8 |
| Other operating adjustments incl. working capital, net (residual) | -99 | -70 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 53 | 85 |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | -64 | -45 |
| Other investing incl. investment purchases/maturities, net (residual) | 50 | 20 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -14 | -25 |
| Repurchases of ordinary shares | -0 | -5 |
| Other financing incl. debt and taxes on RSUs, net (residual) | -1 | -3 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -1 | -8 |
| Effect of FX on cash and restricted cash | -2 | -1 |
| Net change in cash and restricted cash (derived total) ✓ | 37 | 51 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 357 | 408 |
| All other assets (residual) | 3,152 | 3,269 |
| Total assets ✓ | 3,509 | 3,678 |
| Total liabilities | 1,204 | 1,250 |
| Retained earnings | 2,427 | 2,551 |
| Common stock, paid-in capital and AOCI, net (residual) | -122 | -123 |
| Total shareholders' equity ✓ | 2,305 | 2,428 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending late September 2026) | 1,325 | 1,290–1,360 | 3.95 | 12.2% | 10.2% | -38 | 42 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending late December 2026) | 1,380 | 1,330–1,430 | 4.10 | 12.3% | 10.2% | -35 | 50 |
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late March 2027) | 1,420 | 1,370–1,470 | 4.20 | 12.3% | 10.2% | -32 | 56 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late June 2027) | 1,460 | 1,410–1,510 | 4.30 | 12.3% | 10.3% | -30 | 62 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ended June 2026 — reported at this release) | 4,605 | 4,580–4,630 | 13.77 | 13.60–13.95 | -206 | 81 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending June 2027) | 5,585 | 5,450–5,720 | 16.55 | 15.80–17.20 | -135 | 210 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending June 2028) | 6,200 | 5,950–6,450 | 18.10 | 17.20–19.00 | -130 | 250 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending June 2029) | 6,800 | 6,500–7,100 | 19.70 | 18.50–20.80 | -125 | 295 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Multiple large strategic telecom/DCI and new datacom customer agreements ramping into Q4 and beyond support optical communications growth
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000005 · horizon next 2-4 quarters
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
Ongoing Thailand/US capacity expansion drives elevated PP&E investment and depreciation
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000039 · horizon FY27-28
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, balance_sheet.total_assets
Share-based compensation and related litigation/severance excluded from non-GAAP profitability
0001408710-26-000014:fn-2026504xex991q326.htm:b0000030 · horizon each quarter
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, income_statement.net_income, quarterly_path.fq1_27.net_income
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin >=12.2% and non-GAAP operating margin >=10.7% with telecom/DCI >$650M in product mix disclosure
checkable at: Q4 FY26 8-K EX-99.1 (June 26, 2026) and investor deck
FY27 Q1 revenue >=$1.32B with FCF >$35M (cfo+capex) and capex discipline < $40M
checkable at: FY27 Q1 10-Q and 8-K
Full-year FY27 revenue >=$5.55B and non-GAAP EPS >=$16.30 with ROIC expansion vs FY26
checkable at: FY27 10-K for year ending June 2027
Q4 FY26 revenue <$1.26B or non-GAAP EPS <$3.70 missing guidance low despite datacom ramp commentary
checkable at: Q4 FY26 8-K EX-99.1
Q4 FY26 GAAP gross margin <11.5% or operating margin <9.5% indicating mix/price pressure
checkable at: Q4 FY26 10-K / 8-K income statement
FY27 quarterly FCF negative for two consecutive quarters or capex >$60M per quarter without revenue acceleration
checkable at: FY27 Q1 and Q2 10-Q cash flow statements
Optical communications revenue share falling <70% with datacom <$260M while HPC revenue stalls <$90M per quarter
checkable at: FY27 investor presentation product mix slides
What must be true: FN's Q4 print must show telecom/DCI momentum offsetting datacom softness, holding GAAP gross margin near 11.9% (non-GAAP 12.1%) and delivering non-GAAP EPS at ~$3.78 on ~36.3M shares, with capex ~$45M and FCF ~$40M, then sustain 15-20% y/y revenue growth into FY27 on datacom/HPC ramps while keeping capex leverage and share-based comp ~$32-34M annually, so ROIC stays >40%.
Setup is a record Q3 ($1.214B, +39% y/y, non-GAAP EPS $3.72) built on telecom/DCI strength (telecom 71% of optical, DCI $197M) and new HPC ramp ($107M), offsetting datacom down to 29% of optical. Guidance for Q4 is $1.25-1.29B and non-GAAP EPS $3.72-3.87. Reaction hinges on (1) whether telecom/DCI sustains above $630M and HPC steps up, (2) margin hold near 12.1% non-GAAP gross /10.7% operating despite mix shift, and (3) FCF conversion after Q3's -$10.8M on heavy capex ($64M). Beat on revenue plus margin stability likely rewarded; miss on EPS or soft Q1 FY27 guide ($1.30-1.35B) would pressure.
Anchored on Q3 actuals (revenue 1.214B, GAAP 125.2M/3.45, non-GAAP 3.72) and Q4 guidance (1.25-1.29B, GAAP 3.48-3.63, non-GAAP 3.72-3.87). Forecast Q4 at 1.28B – midpoint-plus – assumes continued telecom/DCI ramp (+~$15M q/q) and HPC sequential growth muted by automotive flatness. Margins held: GAAP gross 12.11% vs Q3 11.89% on mix, operating 10.13% vs 9.89%. Net 128.5M => 3.54 GAAP, +8.8M SBC/legal => 137.3M non-GAAP => 3.78, inside guide but not top. Cash: 9M CFO 201.8M + Q4 85M => FY 286.8M; capex 9M 160.6M + Q4 45M => FCF FY 81.2M. Balance sheet rolled from 10-Q Mar27: cash 357.3+51=408.3, retained 2427.1+128.5-5=2550.6. FY27 path assumes datacom re-acceleration via new customer agreements per CEO commentary, driving 5585M FY27 revenue and 16.55 non-GAAP EPS with capex normalization.
Sealed as snap-1408710-20260817T170151141633Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1408710-20260817T170151141633Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.