# GLW Quarter forecast · Q3 2026

> Corning reported Q3 2026. These are the numbers we published before the release, with a cutoff of 25 October 2026, 05:38 ET.

Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/glw/fq3-2026/preview/

Tuesday 27 October, before the open · reported

Corning reported Q3 2026. These are the numbers we published before the release, with a cutoff of 25 October 2026, 05:38 ET.

[Release review →](https://pricedin.markets/glw/fq3-2026/result/)

GLW · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-10-25 05:38:20 ET · 6 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10

## GLW reports Q3 2026 on 27 October 2026

release before the open · call 08:30 ET

Next report · Q3 2026

Sales $4.81B +17% on Q3 2025

Adjusted EPS $0.89 +34% on Q3 2025

Quarter after · Q4 2026

Sales $4.97B +18% on Q4 2025

Adjusted EPS $0.94 +31% on Q4 2025

### Q3 2026 · the quarter GLW reports

##### Sales

PricedIn **$4.81B** $4.61B – $4.97B

$4.61B $4.71B $4.81B $4.89B $4.97B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$0.89** $0.80 – $0.96

$0.80 $0.85 $0.89 $0.93 $0.96

**Middle** the forecast **50% range** 1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside. **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

All six models put third-quarter GAAP sales at $4.8B to $4.9B and differ mainly on the currency gap. Kimi is lowest because it expects a wider gap: it forecasts "negative hedged-exposure lines of $260 million and $280 million in the third and fourth quarters". Spark is highest at $4.9B and $0.93: it reads the September remark that the "$20B run rate a quarter early in Q3 at high end confirms Q3 middle", and carries the highest margins of the six.

The models expect third-quarter GAAP sales of about $4.8B, the top of the company's core sales outlook less a currency hedge gap.

Sales **$4.81B** +17% on Q3 2025 ($4.10B)

*50% range* $4.71B – $4.89B *80% range* $4.61B – $4.97B

Adjusted EPS **$0.89** +34% on Q3 2025 ($0.67)

*50% range* $0.85 – $0.93 *80% range* $0.80 – $0.96

#### Investment and cash generation

Base case

Capital spending **$585M**

Free cash flow **$548M**

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

In July Corning guided third-quarter core sales of $4.9B to $5B and core earnings per share of $0.85 to $0.89. Second-quarter GAAP sales were $4.5B while core sales were $4.74B; the difference is a new adjustment for hedged currency exposures, mostly the yen, that the company began using in April 2026.

In September the finance chief said the quarter was running at the high end of that outlook or slightly better, and that Corning would reach a $20B yearly sales pace a quarter early. Every model took that remark as its anchor and set core sales at about $5.0B or a little more.

The forecasts are on GAAP sales, so each model takes off the hedge gap. Most remove about $235M to $240M, close to the second quarter's $233M. Sol trims it to $200M because the won and yuan strengthened; Kimi widens it to $260M. That is why every middle lands near $4.8B.

Core earnings per share should rise to about $0.89 from $0.78 as the solar wafer plant recovers from its maintenance shutdown. Spark sits highest at $0.93, above the company's own range; the others sit at or just under its $0.89 top.

Core earnings per share of about $0.89 rests on core sales near $5.0B, a core operating margin near 22% as the solar drag fades, and about 880 million diluted shares as the new share program starts.

#### The company's outlooks

Q1 2025 guided “$3.6 billion”

Q2 2025 guided “approximately $3.85 billion”

Q3 2025 guided “$4.2 billion”

Q4 2025 guided “approximately $4.35 billion”

Q1 2026 guided “$4.2 billion to $4.3 billion”

Q2 2026 guided “approximately $4.6 billion”

Q3 2026 guided “$4.9 billion to $5 billion”

Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter, in its own words. It is on another measure than the reported sales line, so it is not set against the result.

#### The quarter forecast, line by line

| Line | Q2 2026 reported | Q3 2025 reported | Q3 2026 forecast | Q4 2025 reported | Q4 2026 forecast |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Net sales | $4.50B | $4.10B | $4.81B | $4.21B | $4.97B |
| Sales growth, year on year | +17% | +21% | +17% | +20% | +18% |
| Total: Segment net sales | $4.74B | $4.27B | $5.04B | $4.41B | $5.22B |
| Adjustment for hedged exposures (1) | −$233M | — | −$235M | — | −$245M |
| Cost of sales | $2.88B | $2.58B | $3.02B | $2.72B | $3.12B |
| Gross margin | $1.63B | $1.52B | $1.78B | $1.50B | $1.85B |
| Gross margin | 36.1% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 35.5% | 37.2% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | $608M | $624M | $628M | $512M | $637M |
| Research, development and engineering expenses | $299M | $280M | $307M | $284M | $314M |
| Amortization of purchased intangibles | $23.0M | $27.0M | $22.7M | $27.0M | $22.7M |
| Operating income | $698M | $589M | $828M | $672M | $878M |
| Operating margin | 15.5% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| Interest income | $12.0M | $10.0M | $12.5M | $11.0M | $13.3M |
| Interest expense | $94.0M | $78.0M | $95.0M | $93.0M | $96.8M |
| Translated earnings contract gain, net | $90.0M | $33.0M | $60.0M | $87.0M | $61.3M |
| Other expense, net | −$57.0M | −$4.0M | −$48.5M | $1.0M | −$48.5M |
| Income before income taxes | $649M | $550M | $757M | $678M | $807M |
| Provision for income taxes (Note 11) | $40M | $80M | $127M | $91M | $139M |
| Tax rate | 6.2% | 14.5% | 16.8% | 13.4% | 17.2% |
| Net income | $609M | $470M | $630M | $587M | $668M |
| Net income attributable to non-controlling interest | $50.0M | $40.0M | $52.3M | $47.0M | $55.5M |
| Net income attributable to Corning Incorporated | $559M | $430M | $577M | $540M | $613M |
| Weighted-average common shares outstanding - diluted | 0.88B | 0.87B | 0.88B | 0.87B | 0.88B |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.78 | $0.67 | $0.89 | $0.72 | $0.94 |

The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.

#### Second-quarter sales and the third-quarter outlook

Second quarter, GAAP sales $4.51B

Second quarter, core sales $4.74B

Third-quarter outlook, low end $4.90B

Third-quarter outlook, high end $5.00B

**Where each number comes from**

**Second quarter, GAAP sales**

“Second-quarter GAAP results: Sales were $4.51 billion, gross margin was 36.1%, operating margin was 15.5%, EPS was $0.64, and operating cash flow was $1.72 billion.”

**Second quarter, core sales**

“Year over year, in the quarter, sales grew 17% to $4.74 billion.”

**Third-quarter outlook, low end**

“In the third quarter, management expects core sales to grow approximately 16% year over year to a range of $4.9 billion to $5 billion and core EPS to grow approximately 28% year over year to a range of $0.85 to $0.89.”

**Third-quarter outlook, high end**

“In the third quarter, management expects core sales to grow approximately 16% year over year to a range of $4.9 billion to $5 billion and core EPS to grow approximately 28% year over year to a range of $0.85 to $0.89.”

The outlook is on core sales; GAAP sales ran below core sales because of the hedged-currency adjustment.

#### What it rests on

**Third-quarter outlook**

Core sales of $4.9B to $5B; core earnings per share of $0.85 to $0.89 “Shifting to our outlook, in the third quarter we expect sales to grow approximately 16 percent year-over-year to a range of 4.9 billion to 5 billion and core EPS to grow approximately 28 percent year-over-year to a range of 85 to 89 cents.” Second-quarter earnings call, July 2026

**September update**

Running at the high end of the sales outlook or slightly better “But we do expect to deliver the $20 billion a quarter early here in the third quarter. And if you take that math and you compare it to the guidance we gave back in July, it means we're at the high end or slightly better than the sales guidance that we gave back in July.” Finance chief, September 2026 conference

**Second-quarter core results**

Core sales up 17% to $4.74B; core earnings per share up 30% to $0.78 “Year over year, Q2 core sales grew 17% to $4.74 billion. Core EPS grew 30% to $0.78.” Second-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Second-quarter GAAP results**

GAAP sales of $4.51B and GAAP earnings per share of $0.64 “Second-quarter GAAP results: Sales were $4.51 billion, gross margin was 36.1%, operating margin was 15.5%, EPS was $0.64, and operating cash flow was $1.72 billion.” Second-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Solar sales**

Up 90% to $438M in the second quarter “In solar, Q2 sales were $438 million up $207 million or 90% year-over-year.” Second-quarter earnings call, July 2026

#### Low and high

Base the middle forecast

Key assumptions

- ****Core sales land at or a little above the $5B top of the outlook.** The finance chief said in September the quarter ran at the high end or slightly better. *6 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** I set core sales at 5.04 billion (4.80 billion reported)
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Third-quarter core sales slightly exceed $5 billion and increase again in the fourth quarter.
  - **GLM 5.3** Corning lands its third-quarter 2026 guidance at or slightly above the high end
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I use about $5.02 billion of third-quarter core sales
  - **Muse Spark Open** Q3 high end reaching $20B run rate early
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I therefore lifted third-quarter core sales to about $5.0 billion
- ****Solar recovers from its wafer plant shutdown, lifting core operating margin toward 22%.** The shutdown added $30M of second-quarter expense; management expects solar profit to improve from the third quarter. *5 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** Recovery is part of why I put third-quarter core operating margin near 22 percent
  - **GLM 5.3** My second-half 2026 builds assume solar swings to a modest profit, adding to margins.
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** the drag coming out is the main reason I lift core operating margin from 20.9 per cent in the second quarter to about 22 per cent in the third and fourth
  - **Muse Spark Open** supports Q3 profit improvement
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** solar recovery is reflected in second-half margins
- ****Diluted shares rise to about 880 million as the new share sale program starts.** In September Corning set up a program to sell up to $2B of stock. *5 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** I raised diluted shares to 879 million in the third quarter and 881 million in the fourth
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** I use about 880 million diluted shares in the third quarter, 888 million in the fourth
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I increase diluted shares from 875 million in the second quarter to 884 million and 890 million in the next two quarters
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I let the diluted share count drift up from 880 million in the third quarter of 2026 to about 908 million by 2028
  - **GLM 5.3** I model roughly 878-880 million diluted shares
- ****The currency hedge gap of about $235M to $240M keeps GAAP sales below core sales.** The gap was $233M in the second quarter, and the yen stayed near the same level. *3 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** I took about 240 million off core sales in each of the third and fourth quarters
  - **GLM 5.3** subtracting about $235 million in the third quarter, $240 million in the fourth
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I carry a similar wedge of roughly $240 million a quarter forward

If all of this happens

**$4.81B** sales

**$0.89** adjusted EPS

**$585M** Capital spending

**$548M** Free cash flow

Cash walk not supplied by every model.

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

What the low case assumes

- ****Solar output stays below plan after the maintenance shutdown.** Solar lost $7M in the second quarter while the wafer plant was down. *5 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** solar ramp delays
  - **GLM 5.3** Solar wafer ramp stalls or solar policy support weakens
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Solar production shortfalls or less favorable policy
  - **Muse Spark Open** Solar wafer ramp misses throughput targets
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar and photonics ramp costs persist
- ****Phone glass and higher input costs squeeze margins.** Corning expects handset units down a mid-teens percentage; oil prices rose sharply this autumn. *4 of 6***
  - **GLM 5.3** Memory prices keep smartphone units down mid-teens
  - **Muse Spark Open** Consumer electronics units down mid-teens and auto muted
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Persistent oil inflation and weaker customer spending are more important lower-range risks for late 2026 and 2027.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Higher input costs and share dilution
- ****Optical shipments slip as capacity or customer sites arrive late, leaving core sales mid-outlook.** Sales have been limited by how fast new fiber, cable and connector capacity comes online. *2 of 6***
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Slower optical capacity additions and customer deployment
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Delayed optical capacity and data center construction
- ****The currency gap widens to about $260M.** The yen stayed weak against hedge rates set near 120 per dollar. *2 of 6***
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I forecast negative hedged-exposure lines of $260 million and $280 million in the third and fourth quarters
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** so reported sales keep sitting about five per cent below the core sales management talks about

If all of this happens

**$4.61B** sales · −4% vs base

**$0.80** EPS · −11% vs base

GAAP sales would have to fall to about $4.6B, 4.2% under the base, with core earnings per share near $0.80, 11% under. That means core sales landing mid-outlook rather than at its top, a wider currency gap, a slower solar restart and costlier inputs. Kimi and Spark go furthest on sales at $4.5B. Spark's earnings low of $0.72 is the furthest because it stacks "power constraints, inventory digestion, photonics delay, memory-driven consumer downturn and solar ramp misses" in one quarter.

Second-quarter GAAP sales were $4.5B, up 8.7% on the first quarter, so even $4.6B would still be growth.

The six lows run from $4.50B (Muse Spark Open) to $4.70B (DeepSeek V4.1 Flash).

First sign On 27 October 2026, core sales below the $5B top of the outlook, or a hedged-exposure adjustment larger than the second quarter's.

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

What the high case assumes

- ****Core sales beat the $5B top of the outlook.** The finance chief said the quarter ran at the high end or slightly better, reaching a $20B pace early. *3 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** the finance chief later said the quarter was tracking at or above the high end
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** it supports a third-quarter core sales estimate of about $5.04 billion
  - **Muse Spark Open** CFO at Citi says $20B run rate a quarter early in Q3 at high end confirms Q3 middle.
- ****Solar profit recovers faster than planned.** The wafer plant finished its shutdown and equipment upgrade in the second quarter. *3 of 6***
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar yield and pricing improve quickly
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster solar recovery and greater cash generation
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** solar reaches group profitability a year early
- ****The currency gap shrinks to about $200M from about $240M.** The won and yuan strengthened during the quarter, and both enter the hedge adjustment. *2 of 6***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** I reduce the estimated third-quarter adjustment from $240 million to $200 million.
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Yen strengthens toward 150, shrinking the hedge adjustment and lifting reported sales and margins

If all of this happens

**$4.97B** sales · +3% vs base

**$0.96** EPS · +7% vs base

GAAP sales would have to reach about $5.0B, 3.4% over the base, with core earnings per share near $0.96, 7.3% over. Core sales would need to beat the $5B top of the outlook, the currency gap would need to narrow, and solar would need to recover quickly. Sol and Spark go furthest on earnings at $1.00: Sol because it already shrinks the currency gap to $200M, Spark because it carries the highest margins, a gross margin near 40% against about 37% for most others.

Third-quarter sales of $5.0B would be about 10% above the second quarter, against 8.7% growth from the first quarter to the second.

The six highs run from $4.87B (DeepSeek V4.1 Flash) to $5.05B (GLM 5.3).

First sign On 27 October 2026, core sales above $5B together with a fourth-quarter outlook well above the third quarter.

#### Watch

The third-quarter report on 27 October 2026, before the open: core sales against the $4.9B to $5B outlook, the size of the hedged-exposure adjustment, solar profit after the shutdown, and how much stock the new program has sold.

### Q4 2026 · the quarter after

##### Sales

PricedIn **$4.97B** $4.67B – $5.25B

$4.67B $4.83B $4.97B $5.11B $5.25B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$0.94** $0.82 – $1.05

$0.82 $0.88 $0.94 $0.99 $1.05

**Middle** the forecast **50% range** 1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside. **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

Five models put fourth-quarter GAAP sales at $4.9B to $5.0B; Sol stands at $5.1B. GLM is lowest, anchoring its quarter at "core sales about $5.15 billion, GAAP about $4.9 billion". Sol is highest, reading the September update as support for "fourth-quarter core sales of about $5.37 billion". Sol's range is also the widest: at $4.6B "optical capacity or customer construction arrives late"; at $5.6B "Optical production ramps faster".

The models expect fourth-quarter GAAP sales of about $5.0B, up again on the third quarter as data center demand keeps growing.

Sales **$4.97B** +18% on Q4 2025 ($4.21B)

*50% range* $4.83B – $5.11B *80% range* $4.67B – $5.25B

Adjusted EPS **$0.94** +31% on Q4 2025 ($0.72)

*50% range* $0.88 – $0.99 *80% range* $0.82 – $1.05

#### Investment and cash generation

Capital spending: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

Corning has not yet given a fourth-quarter outlook; it will at its third-quarter report. In September the finance chief said the fourth quarter should be bigger than the third and that growth on a year earlier, in the high teens, should continue into next year.

The models turn that into core sales of about $5.15B to $5.37B, then take off the currency hedge gap. The average lands at $5.0B of GAAP sales, 3.5% above the third quarter, with core earnings per share of $0.94.

Sol stands apart. It puts fourth-quarter core sales at $5.37B and GAAP sales at $5.1B, 6.2% above its third quarter, while the other five see growth of 2.3% to 3.8%. Sol also has the widest range, from $4.6B to $5.6B.

The first half already holds $8.6B of sales and $1.48 of earnings per share, so the fourth quarter decides whether 2026 lands near the $18.4B the models expect.

Core earnings per share of about $0.94 assumes higher sales, solar moving to a profit, a core tax rate near 18.5%, and a share count drifting up toward about 888 million as stock is sold.

#### What it rests on

**Fourth-quarter direction**

Fourth quarter expected to be bigger than the third “So the third quarter is running really well. And we expect the fourth quarter to be bigger than the third quarter. So we expect sequential growth.” Finance chief, September 2026 conference

**Growth rate**

High-teens growth on a year earlier, expected to continue into next year “And if you take the year over year growth rate that we've been seeing in the second quarter and the third quarter, we're in the high teens. And we expect that to continue as we go into the fourth quarter and into next year.” Finance chief, September 2026 conference

**Year-ago outlook**

Fourth-quarter 2025 core sales outlook of about $4.35B “•In the fourth quarter, the company expects continued growth, with core sales of approximately $4.35 billion and core EPS again growing faster than sales to a range of $0.68 to $0.72.” Third-quarter 2025 earnings release

**Plant spending**

Spending rate rising into the third and fourth quarters, about $2B for the year “For CapEx, we expect to increase our investment run rate into Q3 and Q4 and to invest approximately $2 billion for the year to support the compelling growth plan Wendell just described in Optical Communications.” Second-quarter earnings call, July 2026

#### Low and high

Base the middle forecast

Key assumptions

- ****Fourth-quarter core sales grow on the third, to about $5.15B to $5.37B.** The finance chief said the fourth quarter will be bigger and high-teens growth continues. *6 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** Fourth-quarter core sales set at about 5.17 billion dollars
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** fourth-quarter core sales of about $5.37 billion
  - **GLM 5.3** That anchors my fourth quarter (core sales about $5.15 billion, GAAP about $4.9 billion)
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** $5.22 billion in the fourth quarter
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** set the fourth quarter at $5.19 billion of core sales
  - **Muse Spark Open** Q4 sequential growth at high-teens YoY
- ****The currency hedge gap stays near $240M.** The yen stayed near its second-quarter level against hedge rates near 120 per dollar. *3 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** I took about 240 million off core sales in each of the third and fourth quarters
  - **GLM 5.3** subtracting about $235 million in the third quarter, $240 million in the fourth
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I carry a similar wedge of roughly $240 million a quarter forward
- ****Solar turns to a modest profit in the second half.** Management expects solar sales and profit to improve beginning in the third quarter. *3 of 6***
  - **GLM 5.3** My second-half 2026 builds assume solar swings to a modest profit, adding to margins.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** solar recovery is reflected in second-half margins
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** the drag coming out is the main reason I lift core operating margin from 20.9 per cent in the second quarter to about 22 per cent in the third and fourth
- ****Share count drifts up as the program sells stock.** The September program allows sales of up to $2B of stock over time. *3 of 6***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** I use about 880 million diluted shares in the third quarter, 888 million in the fourth
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I increase diluted shares from 875 million in the second quarter to 884 million and 890 million in the next two quarters
  - **Opus 5.5** I raised diluted shares to 879 million in the third quarter and 881 million in the fourth

If all of this happens

**$4.97B** sales

**$0.94** adjusted EPS

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

What the low case assumes

- ****Solar output and profit stay below plan.** Solar lost money in the second quarter while the wafer plant was shut for upgrades. *4 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** solar ramp delays
  - **GLM 5.3** Solar wafer ramp stalls or solar policy support weakens
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar and photonics ramp costs persist
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Solar production shortfalls or less favorable policy
- ****Capacity or customer construction runs late, pushing shipments out of the quarter.** Optical sales depend on new plant capacity and customers' sites being ready. *3 of 6***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Delayed optical capacity and data center construction
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Slower optical capacity additions and customer deployment
  - **Muse Spark Open** Optical Communications orders decelerate as hyperscalers digest capacity
- ****Higher costs and more new shares trim earnings per share.** Input prices rose this autumn and the share program can add stock. *3 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** new shares from the equity program
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Cost inflation and greater dilution
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Higher input costs and share dilution

If all of this happens

**$4.67B** sales · −6% vs base

**$0.82** EPS · −13% vs base

GAAP sales would have to stall near $4.7B, 6.0% under the base and 2.8% below the third-quarter base, with core earnings per share near $0.82, 13% under. Customers would have to push out projects or capacity arrive late, solar stay weak and dilution grow. Sol goes furthest, to $4.6B and $0.77, because it also has its customer agreements "prove less protective against shipment delays than expected" and adds "Cost inflation and greater dilution".

Sales have dipped quarter to quarter before: first-quarter 2026 sales fell 1.7% on the fourth quarter of 2025.

The six lows run from $4.60B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $4.70B (Opus 5.5).

First sign A fourth-quarter outlook, given on 27 October 2026, that is flat with or below the third quarter.

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

What the high case assumes

- ****Fiber, cable and connector capacity comes on faster, with stronger carrier orders.** Recent carrier agreements with Verizon, Lumen and Zayo add demand beyond data centers. *4 of 6***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster optical capacity ramp and stronger carrier demand
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Stronger carrier and data-center-interconnect awards
  - **Opus 5.5** carrier and data center interconnect deals
  - **GLM 5.3** more multi-billion-dollar long-term agreements are signed
- ****Solar reaches good profits sooner.** The solar wafer plant finished its shutdown and equipment upgrade. *3 of 6***
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar yield and pricing improve quickly
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster solar recovery and greater cash generation
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** solar reaches group profitability a year early
- ****A stronger yen narrows the gap between core and GAAP sales.** The adjustment is mostly yen exposure against hedge rates near 120 per dollar. *1 of 6***
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Yen strengthens toward 150, shrinking the hedge adjustment and lifting reported sales and margins

If all of this happens

**$5.25B** sales · +5% vs base

**$1.05** EPS · +12% vs base

GAAP sales would have to reach about $5.2B, 5.4% over the base, with core earnings per share near $1.05, 12% over. Capacity would have to ramp faster, carrier deals ship sooner and solar recover quickly. Sol goes furthest, to $5.6B and $1.18, a bigger size on the shared drivers: its base already has the highest fourth-quarter core sales, and its high case adds that "customer commitments expand".

The base sees third-quarter sales 6.7% above the second; a $5.2B fourth quarter would be 9.1% above the third.

The six highs run from $5.10B (GLM 5.3) to $5.60B (GPT-6.1 Sol).

First sign A fourth-quarter core sales outlook, given on 27 October 2026, well above the third quarter's result.

#### Watch

On 27 October 2026, the fourth-quarter outlook against third-quarter results. Through the quarter: new customer agreements, the yen against the hedge rates, solar profit and stock sold under the program. A flat outlook points lower; a big step-up points higher.