# GLW Quarter forecast · Q4 2026

> Corning reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 27 October 2026, 09:24 ET and do not change.

Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/glw/fq4-2026/preview/

cutoff 27 October 2026, 09:24 ET

Corning reports Q4 2026 in January 2027. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 27 October 2026, 09:24 ET and do not change.

GLW · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-10-27 09:24:02 ET · 6 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10

## GLW reports Q4 2026

The report date is not in the calendar yet.

Next report · Q4 2026

Sales $5.06B +20% on Q4 2025

Adjusted EPS $0.98 +36% on Q4 2025

Quarter after · Q1 2027

Sales $5.07B +22% on Q1 2026

Adjusted EPS $0.96 +37% on Q1 2026

### Q4 2026 · the quarter GLW reports

##### Sales

PricedIn **$5.06B** $4.86B – $5.25B

$4.86B $4.97B $5.06B $5.15B $5.25B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$0.98** $0.88 – $1.08

$0.88 $0.93 $0.98 $1.03 $1.08

**Middle** the forecast **50% range** 1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside. **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

The models agree closely, all near the top of the company's core range once the currency gap is taken off. DeepSeek, lowest on sales, sets its forecast "deliberately at the midpoint of the company's own guided range". Opus, highest, holds that "Every 2026 quarter came in at or above the top of guidance". Muse Spark Open's earnings middle sits below the company's range. Sol's range is far wider: its low allows "Persistent solar operating losses and lower factory utilization", its high "Faster optical adoption and customer-funded capacity utilization".

The models expect Q4-2026 sales middle, average: $5.1B, as optical fiber for AI data centers keeps growing.

Sales **$5.06B** +20% on Q4 2025 ($4.21B)

*50% range* $4.97B – $5.15B *80% range* $4.86B – $5.25B

Adjusted EPS **$0.98** +36% on Q4 2025 ($0.72)

*50% range* $0.93 – $1.03 *80% range* $0.88 – $1.08

#### Investment and cash generation

Base case

Capital spending **$667M**

Free cash flow **$502M**

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

- **The remaining annual investment plan sets the fourth-quarter spending need, mainly for optical capacity. Customer deposits help fund that capacity and support operating cash flow. Free cash flow reflects the cash left after capital spending; it can move differently from earnings as deposits and investment arrive. *4 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** Capital spending of about $2 billion sets the 2026 capex (about $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter).
  - **GLM 5.3** Capex of about $2 billion for 2026 sets my FY2026 capex base
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** capital spending of $2.0 billion and standard free cash flow of $2.29 billion
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** adopt the about $2 billion figure for 2026
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Customer prepayments of $639 million in the first nine months are the reason operating cash flow can outrun a rising capital budget.
  - **Opus 5.5** Customer deposits fund capacity and lift operating cash flow; supports free cash flow growing despite higher capex.
  - **GLM 5.3** deposits are also why GAAP operating cash flow can stay strong alongside rising capex.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Customer deposits of $1.5 billion support the cash-flow forecast and reduce expansion risk.

Corning beat its third-quarter guidance, led by optical fiber and cable for AI data centers. •GAAP sales were $4.86 billion, up 18% year over year. Core sales were $5.08 billion, up 19% year over year. Core sales use hedged exchange rates; GAAP sales are lower while the yen is weak.

•In the fourth quarter, management expects to grow core sales approximately 19% year over year to a range of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion and grow core EPS approximately 36% year over year to a range of $0.96 to $1.00. These forecasts use GAAP sales, below core sales by the currency gap, which most models hold near its third-quarter size.

All six models start from the guidance. Most expect core sales at or a little above the top of the range, as in every quarter of 2026. That puts sales Q4-2026 sales middle growth on Q4-2025, average: +20%, with core earnings per share at Q4-2026 adjusted EPS middle, average: $0.98.

The risks for one quarter are narrow: solar wafer output, which is ramping slower than planned, and costs from a weak yen, energy and materials. A display glass price increase starting this quarter is meant to offset the yen.

Core earnings per share builds from optical growth, operating costs growing slower than sales and a gross margin near Q4-2026 base gross margin, average: +38%, less a solar drag of a few cents.

#### The company's outlooks

Q2 2025 guided “approximately $3.85 billion”

Q3 2025 guided “$4.2 billion”

Q4 2025 guided “approximately $4.35 billion”

Q1 2026 guided “$4.2 billion to $4.3 billion”

Q2 2026 guided “approximately $4.6 billion”

Q3 2026 guided “$4.9 billion to $5 billion”

Q4 2026 guided “$5.2 billion to $5.3 billion”

Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter, in its own words. It is on another measure than the reported sales line, so it is not set against the result.

#### The quarter forecast, line by line

| Line | Q3 2026 reported | Q4 2025 reported | Q4 2026 forecast | Q1 2026 reported | Q1 2027 forecast |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Net sales | $4.86B | $4.21B | $5.06B | $4.14B | $5.07B |
| Sales growth, year on year | +18% | +20% | +20% | +20% | +22% |
| Cost of sales | $3.04B | $2.72B | $3.13B | $2.62B | $3.12B |
| Gross margin | $1.81B | $1.50B | $1.93B | $1.53B | $1.95B |
| Gross margin | 37.3% | 35.5% | 38.1% | 36.9% | 38.5% |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | $563M | $512M | $596M | $588M | $603M |
| Research, development and engineering expenses | $314M | $284M | $321M | $278M | $327M |
| Amortization of purchased intangibles | $22.0M | $27.0M | $21.8M | $23.0M | $21.7M |
| Operating income | $911M | $672M | $988M | $639M | $999M |
| Operating margin | 18.8% | 15.9% | 19.5% | 15.4% | 19.7% |
| Interest income | $17.0M | $11.0M | $16.5M | $9.0M | $17.3M |
| Interest expense | $87.0M | $93.0M | $88.5M | $92.0M | $89.7M |
| Translated earnings contract gain, net | — | $87.0M | $50.8M | −$16.0M | $24.2M |
| Other expense, net | −$11.0M | $1.0M | −$21.5M | −$11.0M | −$18.2M |
| Income before income taxes | $968M | $678M | $945M | $529M | $932M |
| Provision for income taxes (Note 11) | $222M | $91M | $191M | $121M | $185M |
| Tax rate | 22.9% | 13.4% | 20.2% | 22.9% | 19.9% |
| Net income | $746M | $587M | $754M | $408M | $747M |
| Net income attributable to non-controlling interest | $66.0M | $47.0M | $67.7M | $37.0M | $68.8M |
| Net income attributable to Corning Incorporated | $680M | $540M | $687M | $371M | $678M |
| Weighted-average common shares outstanding - diluted | — | 0.87B | 0.87B | 0.87B | 0.87B |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.91 | $0.72 | $0.98 | $0.70 | $0.96 |

The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.

#### What it rests on

**Fourth-quarter guidance**

core sales approximately 19% year over year to a range of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion “•In the fourth quarter, management expects to grow core sales approximately 19% year over year to a range of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion and grow core EPS approximately 36% year over year to a range of $0.96 to $1.00.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Third-quarter sales**

•GAAP sales were $4.86 billion, up 18% year over year. Core sales were $5.08 billion, up 19% year over year. “•GAAP sales were $4.86 billion, up 18% year over year. Core sales were $5.08 billion, up 19% year over year.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Optical growth**

Q3 sales up 44% to $2.38 billion; Enterprise Networks grew sales 84% “•Optical Communications continued to drive powerful growth, with Q3 sales up 44% to $2.38 billion; Enterprise Networks grew sales 84%, with Gen AI product sales growing more than 100% year over year.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Solar ramp**

•Solar grew sales 37% year over year, as production continued to ramp, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated. “•Solar grew sales 37% year over year, as production continued to ramp, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings release

**Display price increase**

Display glass prices rise from the fourth quarter to offset the weaker yen and costs “Additionally, we recently announced a price adjustment for our display glass substrates that will begin to take effect in the fourth quarter to address a weaker yen environment and rising costs such as critical materials and energy.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings call

#### Low and high

Base the middle forecast

Key assumptions

- ****GAAP sales stay below core sales by a currency gap about the third quarter's size.** The yen trades far weaker than the company's hedge rate, and its hedges run to 2030. *5 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** Reported sales in the form are core less about $230 million in the fourth quarter
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Reported sales are lower, at $5.08 billion, after reversing the assumed $230 million hedge adjustment.
  - **GLM 5.3** I keep a hedged-exposure wedge of about $225 million per quarter
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I use $225 million and $216 million in the fourth quarter
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I carry roughly $230 million of add-back in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027
- ****Core sales land at or slightly above the top of the company's fourth-quarter range.** The company beat its guidance in every 2026 quarter, including the third. *4 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** Every 2026 quarter came in at or above the top of guidance
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** My middle is modestly above this core sales and earnings guidance
  - **GLM 5.3** That supports setting my Q4-2026 adjusted EPS middle at $0.99, near the top of the $0.96-$1.00 guide.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** adjusted EPS is $1.01, near the upper end of guidance.
- ****Solar keeps costing a few cents a share, improving only slowly.** The wafer ramp is slower than planned; management expects the drag to ease gradually through 2027. *4 of 6***
  - **Opus 5.5** The slow solar ramp keeps the low case wide.
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Solar stays a drag.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I assume only gradual improvement through 2027 rather than an immediate recovery
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** The solar drag evidence is what keeps a small solar loss in the first quarter of 2027 rather than assuming an immediate swing to profit.
- ****A display glass price increase offsets the weaker yen and lifts gross margin.** The company announced the increase to take effect from the fourth quarter. *3 of 6***
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** A display glass price increase taking effect in the fourth quarter is one reason I model reported gross margin rising
  - **GLM 5.3** Display glass price increases take effect from late 2026 to offset the weaker yen at the company's 150 planning rate
  - **Opus 5.5** Display price increase offsetting weaker yen

If all of this happens

**$5.06B** sales

**$0.98** adjusted EPS

**$667M** Capital spending

**$502M** Free cash flow

Cash walk not supplied by every model.

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

Q4-2026

**$5.25B** sales · +4% vs base

**$1.08** EPS · +10% vs base

#### Three ways the high case happens

These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.

1. **New optical capacity fills faster and enterprise demand runs above plan.** Enterprise network sales grew fastest in the third quarter on AI products. More optical shipments lift sales, while fuller factories spread their costs across more output. The high case needs that benefit during the fourth quarter.
  Watch Optical sales and enterprise demand in the fourth-quarter report.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster optical adoption and customer-funded capacity utilization
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Faster optical capacity ramp and early scale-up adoption
  - **Opus 5.5** Faster optical capacity additions
  - **GLM 5.3** Faster Enterprise growth as cluster sizes grow and bandwidth doubles
2. **Pricing, mix and operating cost leverage lift margins.** Management says operating costs will grow slower than sales. Better product mix and pricing, with expenses growing more slowly than sales, lift earnings faster than revenue in this quarter.
  Watch Gross margin and operating expenses in the fourth-quarter report.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Successful pricing and operating expense leverage
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Strong pricing, mix and operating leverage
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Price and mix on new optical products raise gross margin faster than costs
  - **Muse Spark Open** Improved price/mix and hedged yen exposure boost margins and free cash flow
3. **Solar output recovers sooner, helped by trade-action pricing.** Trade action under Section 232 improves pricing for U.S.-made solar products. Faster wafer output reduces the solar losses weighing on earnings. It strengthens the high case alongside the optical and margin gains.
  Watch Solar output and the segment result in the fourth-quarter report.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GLM 5.3** Solar productivity inflecting early with Section 232 pricing support
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Quicker solar yield recovery
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar reaches corporate-average profitability early

Sales would have to reach about Q4-2026 sales high, average: $5.2B and core earnings per share about Q4-2026 adjusted EPS high, average: $1.08. That needs core sales clearly above the top of guidance as new optical capacity fills fast, with pricing and operating cost leverage widening margins and solar output recovering. Sol's high is furthest, Q4-2026 sales high, sol: $5.4B and Q4-2026 adjusted EPS high, sol: $1.21, because it pairs faster optical adoption with the strongest pricing and expense leverage of any model.

In the third quarter core earnings per share of Q3-2026 adjusted EPS, reported: $0.91 came in above the company's guided range.

The six highs run from $5.15B (DeepSeek V4.1 Flash) to $5.40B (GPT-6.1 Sol).

First sign The fourth-quarter 2026 report, early in 2027: core sales and core earnings per share both above the top of the guided range.

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

Q4-2026

**$4.86B** sales · −4% vs base

**$0.88** EPS · −10% vs base

#### Three ways the low case happens

These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.

1. **Optical orders slow or capacity takes longer to fill.** That would break the 2026 pattern of beating guidance. Weaker optical demand or slower capacity use leaves sales near the lower outcome and reduces the earnings benefit of higher factory output.
  Watch Core sales against guidance and optical growth in the fourth-quarter report.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **Opus 5.5** A fourth-quarter result at or below the $5.2 billion bottom of guidance
  - **GLM 5.3** a quarter's core sales growth guided or reported below the mid-teens
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Hyperscaler and enterprise optical orders slip a quarter or two, so the 44% optical growth rate halves
  - **GLM 5.3** Hyperscaler capital-spending digestion hitting Enterprise Networks orders
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Optical enterprise orders slow and new capacity is underused
  - **Muse Spark Open** Weaker optical/carrier orders and slower enterprise data-center rollout
  - **Opus 5.5** Data-center spending pause or digestion
2. **Solar wafer losses persist with lower factory use.** Production has ramped slower than planned for several quarters. Low wafer output keeps factories underused, so solar losses continue to subtract from fourth-quarter earnings.
  Watch Solar production progress and the segment result.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Persistent solar operating losses and lower factory utilization
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar wafer productivity and pricing fail to improve
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Solar wafer productivity does not recover after the maintenance shutdown, so the segment keeps dragging margin
  - **Muse Spark Open** Solar wafer scale-up losses and higher restructuring/interest burden
  - **Opus 5.5** Solar wafer ramp keeps dragging
3. **Weak yen, energy and materials costs squeeze gross margin.** Display glass is priced against a weak yen, and glass furnaces use a lot of energy. Display price increases fail to offset currency and input costs fully, leaving less profit on each sale during the quarter.
  Watch Display profitability and management commentary on pricing and costs.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Weak yen, energy and materials pressure gross margin
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Weak consumer demand and expensive energy
  - **Muse Spark Open** FX and cost inflation compressing Glass and Display margins
  - **Opus 5.5** Yen weaker than the 150 hedge plan

Sales would have to come in near Q4-2026 sales low, average: $4.9B and core earnings per share near Q4-2026 adjusted EPS low, average: $0.88. That needs core sales at or below the bottom of the guided range, solar losses that do not narrow, and a weak yen with energy and materials costs pressing gross margin. Sol's low is furthest, Q4-2026 sales low, sol: $4.7B and Q4-2026 adjusted EPS low, sol: $0.82, because it alone adds less favorable currency hedges or unexpected share issuance on top of the solar and demand risks the others share.

Sales grew strongly in the third quarter, Q3-2026 sales growth on the quarter before: +7.8%; the low case needs that growth to stall in a quarter the company guided higher.

The six lows run from $4.70B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $4.95B (Opus 5.5).

First sign The fourth-quarter 2026 report, early in 2027: core sales at or below the bottom of the guided range.

#### Watch

The fourth-quarter report, early in 2027: core sales against the guided range, the solar segment's result, and the gap between core and GAAP sales. A beat with a first-quarter guide above the fourth quarter points higher; a result at the bottom of the range points lower.

### Q1 2027 · the quarter after

##### Sales

PricedIn **$5.07B** $4.75B – $5.38B

$4.75B $4.91B $5.07B $5.22B $5.38B

##### adjusted EPS

PricedIn **$0.96** $0.81 – $1.10

$0.81 $0.88 $0.96 $1.02 $1.10

**Middle** the forecast **50% range** 1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside. **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.

The models differ more than for the fourth quarter. GLM and DeepSeek, lowest on sales, keep the currency gap steady; GLM says "Because hedges run to 2030, I keep a hedged-exposure wedge". Kimi and Sol are highest. Kimi builds on "Optical capacity additions and long-term customer agreements drive high-teens core growth in 2027 and 2028"; Sol's figure rests on a smaller gap "as the future hedge environment weakens toward management's planning rate". Muse Spark Open is lowest on earnings.

The models expect Q1-2027 sales middle, average: $5.1B, about level with the fourth quarter, as optical growth offsets the usual first-quarter dip.

Sales **$5.07B** +22% on Q1 2026 ($4.14B)

*50% range* $4.91B – $5.22B *80% range* $4.75B – $5.38B

Adjusted EPS **$0.96** +37% on Q1 2026 ($0.70)

*50% range* $0.88 – $1.02 *80% range* $0.81 – $1.10

#### Investment and cash generation

Capital spending: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: not supplied by every model

Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.

- **The models discuss optical capacity additions and customer-funded expansion, but did not supply capital-spending or free-cash-flow forecasts for this quarter. Those figures remain unavailable. The annual investment outlook is not a substitute for a first-quarter cash forecast. *4 of 6***
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Customer prepayments of $639 million in the first nine months are the reason operating cash flow can outrun a rising capital budget.
  - **Opus 5.5** Customer deposits fund capacity and lift operating cash flow; supports free cash flow growing despite higher capex.
  - **GLM 5.3** deposits are also why GAAP operating cash flow can stay strong alongside rising capex.
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Customer deposits of $1.5 billion support the cash-flow forecast and reduce expansion risk.

The company gives no outlook for the first quarter of 2027 until its fourth-quarter report. First quarters have often dipped from the fourth. Q1-2026 sales growth on the quarter before: −1.7%

The models put first-quarter sales Q1-2027 sales middle growth on Q1-2026, average: +22%. Four of them expect a small step down from the fourth quarter; Sol and Kimi expect a step up as new optical capacity comes on.

The main split is currency. Core results count hedged yen at the company's hedge rates, and GAAP sales are lower by that gap. Most models keep the gap at the third quarter's size; Sol expects it to shrink as hedge rates move toward the company's planning rate, which lifts GAAP sales without more shipments.

Core earnings per share center on Q1-2027 adjusted EPS middle, average: $0.96. Muse Spark Open is lowest and Kimi highest. Solar losses, expected to fade slowly through 2027, and the new display glass prices decide much of the gap.

First-quarter earnings per share rests on solar losses narrowing, display prices holding against the yen, operating costs growing slower than sales, and a share count held roughly flat.

#### What it rests on

**Last first-quarter guide**

core sales up ~15% to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion “•In Q1, management expects YoY growth to accelerate, with core sales up ~15% to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion, and core EPS growing to a range of $0.66 to $0.70.” Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release

**Planning yen rate**

150 yen per dollar assumed for 2027 to 2030 “For 2027 to 2030, we incorporated a forward rate of 150 yen per U.S. dollar to account for the weaker yen.” May 2026 investor event

**Solar drag outlook**

Drag similar to the second quarter, improving slowly through 2027 “the drag, if you will, or the EPS or margin impact in the third quarter is similar to what we saw in the second quarter, and we would expect it to slowly improve from this level as we go through 2027.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings call

**Share-sale program**

No intention to use the new share-sale program for now “So we have no intention of doing anything at this time, but it allows us to use this as a tool if we ever need to do that in the future.” Third-quarter 2026 earnings call

#### Low and high

Base the middle forecast

Key assumptions

- ****The currency gap between core and GAAP sales stays about its third-quarter size.** The yen stays far weaker than the hedge rate, and hedges run to 2030. *4 of 6***
  - **GLM 5.3** Because hedges run to 2030, I keep a hedged-exposure wedge
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** $230 million and $216 million in the first quarter
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** I carry roughly $230 million of add-back in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027
  - **Opus 5.5** $200 million in the first quarter of 2027
- ****Core sales keep growing near the company's planned pace from the end of 2026.** Management plans steady high-teens growth from the fourth quarter of 2026. *3 of 6***
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** the first-quarter 2027 guide for sales growth near 19% and core EPS near 95 cents
  - **GLM 5.3** a 19% sales CAGR from Q4-2026
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Optical capacity additions and long-term customer agreements drive high-teens core growth in 2027 and 2028
- ****Solar still loses a little money, with recovery later in 2027.** Management expects the solar drag to improve slowly through 2027. *3 of 6***
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** keeps a small solar loss in the first quarter of 2027
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** I delay meaningful solar margin recovery until later in 2027
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** The middle builds in gradual recovery
- ****The share count stays roughly flat, with no use of the new share-sale program.** Management called the program housekeeping with no intention to use it. *3 of 6***
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** I assume no facility issuance in the two-quarter plan.
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Management said it is housekeeping with no intention to act, so it moved no number
  - **Opus 5.5** I assume flat-to-rising diluted shares, so buybacks are upside only.

If all of this happens

**$5.07B** sales

**$0.96** adjusted EPS

High about 1 chance in 10 of better

Q1-2027

**$5.38B** sales · +6% vs base

**$1.10** EPS · +15% vs base

#### Three ways the high case happens

These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.

1. **Optical capacity ramps faster and scale-up begins early.** Customers fund capacity under long-term agreements. Capacity fills quickly enough to offset the usual first-quarter dip. Early adoption adds upside only if shipments arrive within this quarter.
  Watch First-quarter optical shipments and customer deployment updates.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Faster optical capacity ramp and early scale-up adoption
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster optical adoption and customer-funded capacity utilization
  - **Opus 5.5** Faster optical capacity additions
2. **The gap between core and GAAP sales narrows as hedge rates move toward the planning rate.** Sol assumes 2027 hedges sit nearer the company's planning rate. A smaller currency gap lifts GAAP sales relative to core sales without requiring an equivalent increase in physical shipments. This is a model assumption about the first quarter.
  Watch The first-quarter reconciliation between core and GAAP sales.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** a much smaller $50 million first-quarter adjustment as the future hedge environment weakens toward management's planning rate of 150
3. **Solar reaches the company's average profitability early.** Section 232 trade action supports U.S.-made solar pricing. Solar losses fade sooner than the base case assumes, adding to earnings while the optical business supports sales.
  Watch Solar output and profitability in the first-quarter update.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Solar reaches corporate-average profitability early
  - **GLM 5.3** Solar productivity inflecting early with Section 232 pricing support
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Solar reaches or beats the corporate average margin by end-2027 on Section 232 pricing and better wafer yields

Sales would have to reach about Q1-2027 sales high, average: $5.4B and core earnings per share about Q1-2027 adjusted EPS high, average: $1.10: new optical capacity filling fast, solar turning profitable early and a smaller currency gap. Sol's high is furthest, Q1-2027 sales high, sol: $5.8B, because it alone expects the hedge gap to shrink sharply in 2027, lifting GAAP sales without more shipments, on top of faster optical adoption.

Sales rose strongly in the latest quarter: Q3-2026 sales growth on the quarter before: +7.8%

The six highs run from $5.12B (DeepSeek V4.1 Flash) to $5.75B (GPT-6.1 Sol).

First sign The first-quarter guide given with the fourth-quarter report early in 2027: core sales guided above the fourth quarter.

Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse

Q1-2027

**$4.75B** sales · −6% vs base

**$0.81** EPS · −15% vs base

#### Three ways the low case happens

These levers explain the outcome together; each is not a separate one-in-ten event.

1. **Hyperscalers digest capacity and optical orders slow, roughly halving optical growth.** A few large customers make up much of optical sales. Customers absorb existing capacity before ordering more, reducing first-quarter optical shipments and the profit from factory utilization.
  Watch Optical orders and enterprise demand in the first-quarter update.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **DeepSeek V4.1 Flash** Hyperscaler and enterprise optical orders slip a quarter or two, so the 44% optical growth rate halves
  - **GLM 5.3** Hyperscaler capital-spending digestion hitting Enterprise Networks orders
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Optical enterprise orders slow and new capacity is underused
  - **Muse Spark Open** Weaker optical/carrier orders and slower enterprise data-center rollout
  - **Opus 5.5** Data-center spending pause or digestion
2. **Solar wafer losses persist.** The wafer ramp has already slipped. The wafer ramp remains slow, keeping solar losses in the first quarter instead of beginning the expected improvement.
  Watch Wafer production progress and the solar segment result.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **GLM 5.3** Solar wafer productivity stalls, keeping the segment loss in place
  - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Persistent solar operating losses and lower factory utilization
  - **Muse Spark Open** Solar wafer scale-up losses and higher restructuring/interest burden
3. **Currency and cost inflation squeeze glass margins.** Display prices are set against a weak yen while energy costs rise. Display pricing does not fully cover the currency and input-cost pressure, so earnings lag the base case during the quarter.
  Watch Display margins and price realization in the first-quarter update.
  **Model reasoning**
  - **Muse Spark Open** FX and cost inflation compressing Glass and Display margins
  - **Kimi K3.1 Pro** Weak yen, energy and materials pressure gross margin

Sales would have to fall to about Q1-2027 sales low, average: $4.8B and core earnings per share to about Q1-2027 adjusted EPS low, average: $0.81: a seasonal drop deepened by hyperscalers pausing optical orders, solar still losing money and cost pressure on glass. Muse Spark Open's earnings low is furthest, Q1-2027 adjusted EPS low, spark: $0.68, because it alone adds a heavier restructuring and interest burden to the order, solar and currency risks the others share.

First quarters have slipped from the fourth before: Q1-2025 sales growth on the quarter before: −1.4%

The six lows run from $4.70B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $4.85B (Kimi K3.1 Pro).

First sign The first-quarter guide given with the fourth-quarter report early in 2027: a sequential fall larger than normal seasonality.

#### Watch

The first-quarter guide given with the fourth-quarter report; any change in the hedge rates behind core results; the solar segment turning profitable; and whether optical capacity additions arrive on time.