Sales stayed inside the band.
Earnings did not.
Home Depot printed $47,861M of sales and $4.92 of adjusted EPS. Sales landed $961M, or 2.0%, above our $46,900 six-model median and inside the sealed 80% range. Adjusted EPS sat $0.32 above the $4.61 median and above its band. Fiscal 2026 guidance was reaffirmed; no quarterly guide was issued.
A sales beat the slate had room for; an earnings beat it did not.
Comparable sales rose 1.7% and U.S. comps rose 1.3%. GAAP operating margin of 14.3% and gross margin of 33.7% both printed above the sealed medians. The company reaffirmed the same full-year frame the models already expected, so the quarter’s earnings surprise is not absorbed by a raise.
01 · Surprise scorecard
Reported minus our sealed number
Positive means the company reported above our forecast. The six-model median was fixed at 20:13:05Z on 2026-08-17, before this 8-K was accepted at 06:10:33Z.
| Metric | Reported | Our number | Surprise | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 47,861 | 46,900 | +961 · +2.0% | inside 45,750–48,000 |
| Adjusted EPS | 4.92 | 4.61 | +0.32 · +6.8% | above 4.44–4.78 |
| GAAP EPS | 4.79 | 4.48 | +0.32 · +7.0% | no aggregate band |
| GAAP gross margin | 33.67% | 32.99% | +0.68 pt | above |
| GAAP operating margin | 14.29% | 13.79% | +0.50 pt | above |
| Capex ($M) | 880 | 1,050 | −170 · −16.2% | less spend |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4,510 | 3,895.5 | +614.5 | inside 3,125–4,775 |
Sources: 8-K Ex. 99.1, blocks b0000041, b0000053 and b0000066 · Q1 cash lines from prior Ex. 99.1 b0000052 · sealed pre-print manifest
02 · Calibration
Where actuals landed in the aggregate ranges
03 · Forward signal
The year guide did not move
FY2026 sales growth
Reaffirmed. The six-model aggregate already expected a $168.8B–$172.1B year, the dollar equivalent of that same growth frame off the cited FY2025 sales of $164,683M. No quarterly sales guide was issued.
FY2026 adjusted EPS
Reaffirmed as flat to +4.0% from $14.69. That is exactly the $14.69–$15.28 range the sealed aggregate expected. First-half adjusted EPS is $8.35, so the implied second half is about $6.34–$6.93.
04 · Model scoreboard
GPT‑5.6 Sol was closest on sales and adjusted EPS; Grok 4.6 on cash
Error below is forecast minus reported. Every model was low on sales and adjusted EPS. Free cash flow split: two models were high, four were low.
| Model | Revenue | Error $M | Adj. EPS | Error | FCF $M | Error $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 | 47,300 | −561 | 4.57 | −0.35 | 4,936 | +426 |
| Gemini 3.7 Flash | 46,400 | −1,461 | 4.70 | −0.22 | 3,650 | −860 |
| GPT‑5.6 Sol | 47,450 | −411 | 4.82 | −0.10 | 3,650 | −860 |
| Grok 4.6 | 47,100 | −761 | 4.49 | −0.43 | 4,141 | −369 |
| Kimi K3 | 46,700 | −1,161 | 4.64 | −0.28 | 2,700 | −1,810 |
| Muse Spark 1.2 | 46,408 | −1,453 | 4.55 | −0.37 | 5,120 | +610 |
Open all six sealed model forecasts · machine-readable scorecard
05 · Operating read-through
Ticket carried the comparable-sales print
U.S. comps +1.3% · year-ago +1.0%
transactions −1.0% · average ticket $92.50
+26 bp vs 33.41% a year ago
8-K Ex. 99.1 · b0000005 and b0000041
06 · Earnings quality
The GAAP/non-GAAP gap is the acquired-intangible add-back
on 996M diluted shares
$0.18 acquired-intangible amortization; $0.05 tax
+5.1% vs $4.68 a year ago
8-K Ex. 99.1 · b0000041, b0000053 and b0000066 · Q1 Ex. 99.1 b0000052
07 · What changed
Thesis update
Demand cleared the tougher compare.
Q2 sales of $47,861M were 5.7% above last year’s $45,277M, with comps +1.7% after Q1’s +0.6%. Ticket, not traffic, did the work: comparable transactions fell 1.0% while comparable average ticket rose 2.8%.
The earnings beat is larger than the sales beat.
Adjusted EPS of $4.92 is 6.8% above the sealed $4.61 median and above the 4.44–4.78 band. Gross margin of 33.67% printed above both the $32.99 median and last year’s 33.41%.
The year guide was not the release’s surprise.
Management reaffirmed +2.5% to +4.5% sales growth and flat-to-+4% adjusted EPS from $14.69. That is the same frame sealed in the pre-print. A raise would have been a separate fact; it is not on this page.
Cash conversion held inside the band.
Derived quarterly free cash flow of $4,510M is $614.5M above the $3,895.5 median and inside 3,125–4,775. Capex of $880M was $170M below the $1,050 median.
8-K · b0000005, b0000012, b0000023, b0000041, b0000053 and b0000066
08 · Next checks
What would strengthen or break the read
Strengthens
- The 9 a.m. ET call keeps the year guide intact and does not walk back the Q2 margin print.
- A later 10-Q that confirms the 8-K sales, EPS, and cash figures without restatement.
- Q3 comparable sales still positive, with ticket not reversing the Q2 gain.
Weakens
- A cut to the +2.5% sales-growth floor or to the flat adjusted-EPS floor.
- Gross margin falling back toward or below the 33.1% year guide after this 33.67% quarter.
- An 8-K/A or 10-Q that revises the Q2 figures used on this page.
09 · Evidence status
Release complete; call context not yet available
| Evidence | Time held / available | Digest or status |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K Ex. 99.1 | accepted 06:10:33Z · fetched 10:18:19Z | b0d505e6…6cb6a0c9 |
| Q1 Ex. 99.1 (cash bridge) | already-filed Q1 exhibit | CFO 6,032 · capex 844 |
| genuine-forward pre-print v1 | published 2026-08-17 20:13:05Z | 884c2553…ac12993 |
| Live corpus ingest | not performed on this copy | one live machine writes data/; this agent parsed fetched bytes only |
Figures were extracted with the repo HTML content extractor. Owner spot-verification has not been recorded. IR posted a Q2 release PDF and a non-GAAP reconciliation PDF; those bytes were not used as a numerical source.