RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T193553116220Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY26 net sales
41,765
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS
3.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY26 adjusted diluted EPS
3.43
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY26 operating income
4,981
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000058
Q1 FY26 cash flow from operations
6,032
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000052
Q1 FY26 quarter-end cash
1,601
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000047
FY26 guidance: total sales growth low end (approximately 2.5% to 4.5%)
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
FY26 guidance: gross margin ~33.1%
33.1
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014
FY26 guidance: operating margin low end (approximately 12.4% to 12.6%)
12.4
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015
FY26 guidance: effective tax rate ~24.3%
24.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000017
FY26 guidance: adjusted diluted EPS flat to +4% from $14.69
14.69
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022
FY26 guidance: capex ~2.5% of total sales
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023
Q2 FY25 net sales (prior-year quarter)
45,277
0000354950-25-000217 · 0000354950-25-000217:hd-20250803.htm:b0000065
Q2 FY25 gross profit (prior-year quarter)
15,125
0000354950-25-000217 · 0000354950-25-000217:hd-20250803.htm:b0000065
Q2 FY25 operating income (prior-year quarter)
6,555
0000354950-25-000217 · 0000354950-25-000217:hd-20250803.htm:b0000065
Q2 FY25 net earnings (prior-year quarter)
4,551
0000354950-25-000217 · 0000354950-25-000217:hd-20250803.htm:b0000065
FY2025 total net sales
164,683
0001628280-26-019436 · 0001628280-26-019436:hd-20260201.htm:b0000545
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 47,300 | +13.3% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 31,762 | +13.5% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,538 | +12.7% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,226 | +3.4% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 865 | +2.9% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 9,091 | +3.3% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,447 | +29.4% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -12 | +71.4% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 612 | +0.2% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 600 | -0.7% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 5,847 | +33.6% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,421 | +30.6% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,426 | +34.6% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 995 | +0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 4 | +34.4% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 997 | +0.1% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.44 | +34.5% |
Bridge: net income 4,426 + acquired_intangible_asset_amortization 175 + income_tax_impact_of_adjustment -43 = non-GAAP net income 4,558 ÷ 997M shares = 4.57 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,426 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 925 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 175 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 160 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | 300 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 5,986 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -1,050 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -100 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 20 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -1,130 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | -1,200 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 30 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -1,400 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 40 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | 0 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,325 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | -80 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -4,935 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | -79 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 5 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | -74 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 1,527 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 6,700 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 26,200 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,650 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 36,077 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 28,050 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,300 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,530 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,110 |
| Other assets | 804 | 810 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 106,877 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 2,303 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 13,600 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,300 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 900 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,700 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 400 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 4,800 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,500 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,613 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 33,116 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 43,860 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,190 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,930 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 2,570 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 90,666 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 15,105 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,607 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -620 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -95,971 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 16,211 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,300 | 41,500–43,100 | 3.74 | 33.2% | 12.6% | -1,150 | 2,450 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 39,000 | 38,300–39,700 | 3.05 | 33.1% | 11.3% | -1,200 | 3,200 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 42,800 | 42,000–43,600 | 3.69 | 33.1% | 12.2% | -1,000 | 5,300 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 48,500 | 47,500–49,500 | 4.88 | 33.3% | 13.9% | -1,150 | 5,350 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 170,365 | 168,900–171,800 | 14.80 | 14.55–15.10 | -4,244 | 15,774 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 175,400 | 171,000–179,500 | 15.90 | 15.00–16.80 | -4,400 | 16,800 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 181,500 | 175,500–187,500 | 17.20 | 16.00–18.40 | -4,500 | 17,800 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 188,800 | 181,000–196,500 | 18.50 | 17.00–20.00 | -4,700 | 18,900 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of total sales in fiscal 2026
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023 · horizon fiscal 2026
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, quarterly_path.fq3_26.capex, quarterly_path.fq4_26.capex
Approximately 15 new stores in fiscal 2026, supplementing comparable sales growth of flat to +2.0%
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013 · horizon fiscal 2026
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_26.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_26.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue
Fiscal 2026 operating margin of approximately 12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted 12.8% to 13.0%) with gross margin of approximately 33.1%
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015 · horizon fiscal 2026
flows into: income_statement.operating_income, income_statement.gross_profit, horizons.fy0.operating_income, horizons.fy0.gross_profit
Adjusted diluted EPS guidance excludes ~$0.50/share after-tax acquired intangible amortization (SRS/GMS deal amortization continues)
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000068 · horizon fiscal 2026
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, cash_flow.intangible_amortization, headline.eps_adjusted
Net interest expense of approximately $2.3B, reflecting post-GMS deleveraging priority; share repurchases remain suspended while debt is paid down
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000018 · horizon fiscal 2026
flows into: income_statement.interest_expense, cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.short_term_debt_repayments, cash_flow.long_term_debt_repayments, balance_sheet.long_term_debt
Continued dividend payments (~$2.3B per quarter paid in Q1 FY26)
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000052 · horizon ongoing
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy1.cff
Q2 FY26 comparable sales accelerate above +1.5% with U.S. comps positive, driving revenue above $47.6B while gross margin holds at or above 33.0%
checkable at: Q2 FY26 8-K earnings release (August 2026)
FY26 adjusted operating margin tracking to 12.9%+ (op income >$6.5B in Q2) alongside reiterated or raised adjusted EPS guidance
checkable at: Q2 FY26 8-K and Q3 FY26 10-Q (November 2026)
Debt paydown of $2B+ in the quarter (short-term plus long-term repayments) putting leverage on track to resume buybacks by FY27, with CFO above $6.0B
checkable at: Q2 FY26 10-Q cash flow statement (September 2026)
Pro comp outperformance sustained: SRS/GMS-driven non-comp revenue contribution above $1.7B in Q2 with no goodwill/intangible impairment
checkable at: Q2 FY26 10-Q segment/revenue disclosures
Q2 FY26 comparable sales negative (below -0.5%) or revenue below $46.5B, signaling demand deterioration beyond housing-lock-in effects
checkable at: Q2 FY26 8-K earnings release (August 2026)
Gross margin below 32.6% in Q2 FY26, indicating tariff cost pass-through failure or adverse GMS mix beyond plan
checkable at: Q2 FY26 8-K income statement
FY26 adjusted EPS guidance cut below $14.69 (negative growth) at the Q2 or Q3 print
checkable at: Q2/Q3 FY26 8-K guidance sections
Inventory above $27.5B at Q2-end (up YoY ex-acquisitions) combined with CFO below $5.0B, signaling working-capital stress into H2
checkable at: Q2 FY26 10-Q balance sheet and cash flow
What must be true: Housing turnover stays depressed but stable (no further leg down in big-ticket discretionary), GMS integration continues to add ~$1.6-1.7B of quarterly revenue at only modestly dilutive margins until it laps in September, tariff costs remain absorbable within the ~33.1% gross margin framework, and free cash flow (~$15.8B FY26) comfortably funds the ~$9.3B dividend plus $4-5B of debt reduction so buybacks can resume in FY27.
HD reports fiscal Q2 2026 (ended Aug 2) with guidance reaffirmed at Q1 and management signaling demand 'relatively similar to fiscal 2025.' We model sales of $47.3B (+4.5% YoY), carried by the final full quarter of inorganic GMS contribution (~$1.6-1.7B) plus ~+1% comps, before growth decelerates to ~2% in H2 as GMS laps in September. Three things matter. First, comps composition: Q1 showed transactions -1.3% offset by ticket +2.2% (tariff-linked pricing); watch whether big-ticket (>$1,000) stabilizes as mortgage rates ease. Second, gross margin: we model 32.85% vs 33.41% LY, reflecting GMS mix and tariff absorption—the FY 33.1% guide requires no slippage here. Third, the deleveraging cadence: buybacks remain paused; we expect ~$2.6B of combined debt paydown on ~$6.0B CFO, keeping FY27 repurchase resumption on track. We forecast GAAP EPS of $4.44 and adjusted EPS of $4.57 (-2.4% YoY), slightly better sequential trajectory than Q1's -3.7% adjusted decline. FY26 guidance (sales +2.5-4.5%, adjusted EPS flat to +4% from $14.69) should be reaffirmed; a guidance narrowing toward the midpoint would be taken well. The reaction hinges on U.S. comps sign and gross margin: positive U.S. comps with GM ≥33.0% likely re-rates the pro-ecosystem thesis; negative comps or GM below 32.6% reopens the FY26 EPS-cut debate. Balance sheet watch: inventory (~$26.2B expected, down seasonally) and short-term debt reduction below $2.5B.
Anchored on filed Q1 FY26 actuals (sales $41,765M, +4.8% with comps +0.6%, implying ~$1.67B non-comp/GMS contribution) and prior-year Q2 FY25 base ($45,277M sales, $15,125M gross profit, $6,555M operating income, $4,551M net income). Q2 FY26 revenue = base +1.0% comps (+$450M) + ~$1.6B GMS/new stores = $47.3B. Gross margin 32.85% (down ~56bps YoY on GMS mix/tariffs, consistent with Q1's -77bps and the 33.1% FY guide). SG&A +5.9% YoY consistent with Q1's +5.7% (GMS opex included), yielding operating income $6,447M (13.6% margin, -85bps YoY vs Q1's -100bps). Net interest $600M per the ~$2.3B FY guide; tax 24.3% per guidance. NI $4,426M, diluted EPS $4.44; adjusted EPS $4.57 adding $175M intangible amortization less $43M tax. Cash flow: CFO $5,986M (Q2 seasonal strength, modest WC tailwind), capex $1,050M ramping toward 2.5% of sales, no buybacks (post-GMS deleveraging), dividends $2,325M, ~$2.6B debt paydown leaving cash at $1,527M. Balance sheet rolls forward from Q1 FY26 with seasonal inventory/AP declines. Quarterly path embeds GMS lapping in Q3 (growth ~2.3%) and FY26 landing at $170.4B (+3.5%, guide midpoint), operating margin 12.4%, GAAP EPS ~$14.27, adjusted ~$14.80—low half of guidance given soft comps. FY27-FY29 assume comp recovery (2-3%) as rate cuts unlock housing turnover, margin rebuild toward 13%, buyback resumption in FY27 funding EPS growth to ~$18.50 adjusted by FY29.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T193553116220Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T193553116220Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.