RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T193105819138Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Net Sales
41,765
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Gross Profit
13,781
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Operating Income
4,981
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Net Earnings
3,289
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Diluted EPS
3.3
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 Fiscal 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS
3.43
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000007
Fiscal 2026 Guidance Gross Margin Target
33.1
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014
Fiscal 2026 Guidance Effective Tax Rate
24.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000017
Fiscal 2026 Guidance Net Interest Expense
2.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000018
Fiscal 2026 Guidance New Stores
15
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013
Fiscal 2026 Guidance CapEx Percent of Sales
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 46,400 | +11.1% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 30,902 | +10.4% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,498 | +12.5% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,060 | +1.3% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 850 | +1.1% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 8,910 | +1.2% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,588 | +32.3% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -20 | +185.7% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 595 | -2.6% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 575 | -4.8% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 6,013 | +37.4% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,461 | +34.3% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,552 | +38.4% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 994 | +0.0% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 5 | +38.4% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 996 | +0.0% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.57 | +38.5% |
Bridge: net income 4,552 + acquired_intangible_amortization 171 + tax_effect_of_adjustments -42 = non-GAAP net income 4,681 ÷ 996M shares = 4.70 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,552 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 915 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 171 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 175 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | -1,213 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 4,600 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -950 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -50 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 20 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -980 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | -1,500 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 50 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -250 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 30 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | 0 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,320 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | -100 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -4,090 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | -470 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 0 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | -470 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 1,131 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 6,500 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 26,800 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,700 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 36,131 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 28,000 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,300 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,600 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,200 |
| Other assets | 804 | 883 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 107,114 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 2,003 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 13,800 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,300 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 750 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,650 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 800 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 5,178 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,484 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,400 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 33,365 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 44,628 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,150 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,900 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 1,900 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 90,943 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 14,972 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,738 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -658 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -95,971 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 16,171 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,000 | 41,200–42,800 | 3.85 | 33.4% | 12.8% | -950 | 4,150 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 39,300 | 38,500–40,100 | 3.05 | 33.2% | 11.5% | -1,000 | 3,800 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 43,400 | 42,500–44,300 | 3.62 | 33.0% | 12.2% | -950 | 5,350 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 48,200 | 47,200–49,200 | 4.95 | 33.5% | 14.4% | -1,000 | 3,900 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 169,465 | 167,500–171,500 | 15.03 | 14.80–15.25 | -3,744 | 16,788 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 176,200 | 173,000–179,500 | 16.00 | 15.60–16.40 | -4,200 | 17,600 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 184,500 | 180,000–189,000 | 17.25 | 16.70–17.80 | -4,500 | 18,900 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 193,000 | 187,000–199,000 | 18.60 | 17.90–19.30 | -4,800 | 20,200 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Capital expenditures target of approximately 2.5% of total net sales
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023 · horizon FY2026
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex
Gross margin target of approximately 33.1% for full year fiscal 2026
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014 · horizon FY2026
flows into: income_statement.gross_profit, horizons.fy0.gross_profit
Adjusted diluted EPS growth of approximately flat to 4.0% over FY2025 base ($14.69)
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022 · horizon FY2026
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, horizons.fy0.eps_adjusted
U.S. comparable store sales acceleration exceeding 2.0% YoY
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q
SRS and professional pro segment organic revenue growth exceeding 6.0% YoY
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q
Gross margin contraction below 32.8% driven by promotional pressure or supply chain headwinds
checkable at: Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q
Operating cash flow conversion failing to exceed $18,000M on a trailing 12-month basis
checkable at: FY2026 Form 10-K
What must be true: Home Depot must maintain resilient ticket sizes and stable DIY/Pro demand despite elevated mortgage rates, while seamlessly extracting synergies from SRS and GMS distribution integrations without gross margin erosion.
Home Depot enters Q2 fiscal 2026 facing a balanced macro backdrop characterized by persistent housing turnover headwinds offset by solid spring seasonal execution and incremental accretion from SRS Distribution. Investors will closely watch comparable store sales trends, Pro customer backlog stability, and gross margin discipline against tariff and freight volatility. We anticipate a solid print landing near the midpoint of full-year guidance ranges.
Q2 is seasonally Home Depot's highest revenue and earnings quarter. We forecast net sales of $46.40 billion (+2.5% YoY) with gross margin stabilizing at 33.4%, delivering GAAP diluted EPS of $4.57 and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.70. Working capital normalizes following spring inventory build, generating robust operating cash flow and free cash flow.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T193105819138Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T193105819138Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.