RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T193257369495Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales
41,765
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 fiscal 2026 comparable-sales growth percent
0.6
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000005
Q1 fiscal 2026 gross profit
13,781
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 fiscal 2026 operating income
4,981
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 fiscal 2026 net earnings
3,289
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 fiscal 2026 GAAP diluted EPS
3.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000006
Q1 fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS
3.43
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000007
Q1 fiscal 2026 operating cash flow
6,032
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000052
Fiscal 2026 total-sales growth guidance low percent
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
Fiscal 2026 total-sales growth guidance high percent
4.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
Fiscal 2026 gross-margin guidance percent
33.1
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014
Fiscal 2026 GAAP operating-margin guidance low percent
12.4
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015
Fiscal 2026 GAAP operating-margin guidance high percent
12.6
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015
Fiscal 2026 adjusted operating-margin guidance low percent
12.8
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000016
Fiscal 2026 adjusted operating-margin guidance high percent
13
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000016
Fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS baseline
14.69
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022
Fiscal 2026 capital-expenditure guidance percent of sales
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023
Prior-year Q2 net sales
45,277
0000354950-25-000195 · 0000354950-25-000195:hd_exhibit991x08032025.htm:b0000040
Prior-year Q2 adjusted diluted EPS
4.68
0000354950-25-000195 · 0000354950-25-000195:hd_exhibit991x08032025.htm:b0000065
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 47,450 | +13.6% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 31,790 | +13.6% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,660 | +13.6% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,018 | +0.7% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 900 | +7.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 8,918 | +1.3% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,742 | +35.4% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -10 | +42.9% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 590 | -3.4% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 580 | -4.0% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 6,162 | +40.8% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,497 | +37.6% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,665 | +41.8% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 995 | +0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 5 | +41.7% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 997 | +0.1% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.68 | +41.8% |
Bridge: net income 4,665 + acquired_intangible_asset_amortization_after_tax 140 = non-GAAP net income 4,805 ÷ 997M shares = 4.82 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,665 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 950 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 180 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 115 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | -1,210 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 4,700 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -1,050 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -80 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 30 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -1,100 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | -300 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 50 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -50 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 120 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | 0 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,325 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | 5 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -2,500 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | 1,100 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 5 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | 1,105 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 2,706 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 6,500 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 26,500 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,700 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 37,406 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 28,500 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,250 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,480 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,100 |
| Other assets | 804 | 764 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 108,500 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 3,203 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 13,500 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,400 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 850 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,700 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 1,000 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 5,000 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,500 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,700 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 34,853 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 44,000 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,100 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,900 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 2,140 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 91,993 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 15,142 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,846 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -600 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -95,971 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 16,507 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,900 | 42,300–43,500 | 3.80 | 33.1% | 12.6% | -1,000 | 3,200 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 39,100 | 38,400–39,800 | 2.85 | 33.0% | 10.5% | -1,200 | 1,800 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 43,200 | 42,400–44,000 | 3.65 | 33.0% | 12.0% | -950 | 5,150 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 49,000 | 48,000–50,000 | 5.10 | 33.1% | 14.5% | -1,100 | 3,900 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 171,215 | 169,000–173,400 | 14.90 | 14.45–15.35 | -4,100 | 13,800 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 176,500 | 172,000–181,000 | 16.05 | 15.25–16.85 | -4,200 | 14,800 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 183,000 | 176,000–190,000 | 17.25 | 16.15–18.35 | -4,300 | 15,700 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 190,000 | 181,000–199,000 | 18.60 | 17.15–20.05 | -4,500 | 17,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Management plans to invest approximately $4 billion in fiscal 2026 capital expenditures across new and existing stores, the interconnected experience, and the Pro strategy.
0001628280-26-019436:hd-20260201.htm:b0000438 · horizon Fiscal 2026
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, balance_sheet.net_property_equipment
The company does not plan to resume share repurchases in fiscal 2026 while it reduces outstanding debt.
0001628280-26-019436:hd-20260201.htm:b0000433 · horizon Fiscal 2026
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, balance_sheet.treasury_stock, horizons.fy0.cff
The quarterly dividend was increased to $2.33 per share, subject to future Board declarations.
0001628280-26-019436:hd-20260201.htm:b0000439 · horizon Fiscal 2026 and beyond
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy1.cff
Fiscal 2026 guidance includes approximately 15 new stores.
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013 · horizon Fiscal 2026
flows into: horizons.fy0.revenue, horizons.fy0.capex, quarterly_path.fq3_26.revenue
Management expects GMS to enhance SRS through complementary product categories, capabilities, and customer relationships.
0001628280-26-019436:hd-20260201.htm:b0000377 · horizon Fiscal 2026-2029
flows into: horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.gross_profit, horizons.fy3.operating_income
Reported Q2 comparable-sales growth of at least 2.0%, gross margin of at least 33.2%, and adjusted diluted EPS of at least $4.95.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Q2 earnings release and Form 10-Q.
Fiscal 2026 guidance raised to total-sales growth above 4.5% or adjusted diluted EPS above $15.28 without a lower operating-margin outlook.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Q2 or Q3 earnings release.
Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow reaches at least $18.5 billion while annualized capital expenditures remain near $4.0 billion.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K.
Reported Q2 comparable sales are negative, gross margin is below 32.8%, or adjusted diluted EPS is below $4.60.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Q2 earnings release and Form 10-Q.
Fiscal 2026 adjusted operating-margin guidance falls below 12.8% or adjusted diluted EPS guidance falls below $14.69.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Q2 or Q3 earnings release.
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow is below $16.0 billion while inventory grows faster than sales and net debt is not reduced.
checkable at: Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K.
What must be true: Small-project demand must remain positive despite housing-affordability pressure; GMS and SRS must add sales without causing gross margin to fall materially below 33%; tariff and wage pressure must be offset by pricing, sourcing, shrink improvement, and productivity; and the pause in repurchases must translate into visible debt reduction and stronger equity.
Home Depot enters Q2 with a favorable seasonal setup but a mixed quality-of-growth debate. I forecast $47.45 billion of sales, up roughly 4.8%, supported by GMS annualization, new locations, positive ticket, and modestly positive core demand. The key issue is margin: acquired distribution revenue carries a lower gross margin, while tariffs, labor and continued Pro investments limit flow-through. I therefore model a 33.0% gross margin and 14.2% GAAP operating margin, producing $4.68 of GAAP diluted EPS and $4.82 adjusted. Three items should determine the reaction. First is comparable sales and whether transactions stabilize as smaller projects offset weak housing turnover and financing-sensitive remodels. Second is gross-margin execution against the 33.1% full-year framework, especially evidence that pricing, sourcing and shrink benefits are absorbing tariff pressure. Third is guidance: I expect the company to retain its existing sales and adjusted-EPS ranges rather than raise them materially. A print near my revenue estimate but below $4.70 of adjusted EPS would indicate poor acquisition mix or cost control. Conversely, at least 2% comparable-sales growth, gross margin above 33.2%, and adjusted EPS near $5 would demonstrate improving underlying demand and operating leverage.
The forecast starts with Q1 sales of $41.765 billion, 0.6% comparable-sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.43, then applies normal Q2 seasonality to the prior-year Q2 base of $45.277 billion. Revenue growth remains near Q1 because GMS is incremental versus the prior-year quarter, while the core business benefits from modest price and small-project activity but remains constrained by affordability and low housing turnover. Gross margin is modeled below the prior-year quarter due primarily to the greater mix of lower-margin SRS and GMS distribution sales. SG&A leverage improves sequentially with seasonal volume, but acquisition-related amortization keeps GAAP EPS below adjusted EPS. Cash flow reflects Q2 working-capital normalization, approximately $1.05 billion of quarterly capital spending, no buybacks, the $2.33 quarterly dividend, and modest debt reduction. Longer term, the model assumes low-single-digit organic growth, continued Pro share gains, gradual margin recovery, sustained capital investment near $4 billion annually, and declining leverage.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T193257369495Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T193257369495Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.