RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T194811441991Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY26 net sales ($M)
41,765
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY26 net earnings ($M)
3,289
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS ($)
3.3
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY26 adjusted diluted EPS ($)
3.43
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000007
Q1 FY26 comparable sales growth (%)
0.6
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000005
Q1 FY26 cash ($M)
1,601
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000056
Q1 FY26 acquired intangible amortization ($M)
171
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000058
FY26 sales-growth guidance low (%)
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
FY26 sales-growth guidance high (%)
4.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
FY26 gross-margin guidance (%)
33.1
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014
FY26 operating-margin guidance low (%)
12.4
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015
FY26 net-interest-expense guidance ($M)
2,300
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000018
FY26 adj-EPS growth guidance vs $14.69
4.0
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022
FY26 capex guidance (% of sales)
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023
FY25 net sales ($M)
164,683
0000354950-26-000026 · 0000354950-26-000026:hd_exhibit991x02012026.htm:b0000013
FY25 adjusted diluted EPS ($)
14.69
0000354950-26-000026 · 0000354950-26-000026:hd_exhibit991x02012026.htm:b0000015
Q2 FY25 net sales ($M)
45,277
0000354950-25-000195 · 0000354950-25-000195:hd_exhibit991x08032025.htm:b0000040
Q2 FY25 adjusted diluted EPS ($)
4.68
0000354950-25-000195 · 0000354950-25-000195:hd_exhibit991x08032025.htm:b0000007
Quarterly dividend per share ($)
2.33
0000354950-26-000026 · 0000354950-26-000026:hd_exhibit991x02012026.htm:b0000020
Share-repurchase pause remaining authorization ($M)
11,700
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000189
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 47,100 | +12.8% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 31,628 | +13.0% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,472 | +12.3% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,266 | +3.9% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 870 | +3.4% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 9,136 | +3.8% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,336 | +27.2% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -15 | +114.3% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 590 | -3.4% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 575 | -4.8% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 5,761 | +31.6% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,411 | +29.7% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,350 | +32.3% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 995 | +0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 4 | +32.0% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 997 | +0.1% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.36 | +32.1% |
Bridge: net income 4,350 + acquired_intangible_amortization_net_of_tax 129 = non-GAAP net income 4,479 ÷ 997M shares = 4.49 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,350 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 930 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 171 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 140 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | -400 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 5,191 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -1,050 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -80 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 15 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -1,115 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | -1,200 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 0 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -150 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 80 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | 0 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,325 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | -80 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -3,675 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | 401 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 5 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | 406 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 2,007 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 7,050 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 26,800 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,720 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 37,577 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 28,050 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,350 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,530 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,093 |
| Other assets | 804 | 810 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 108,410 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 2,303 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 14,200 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,350 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 850 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,750 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 400 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 5,050 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,510 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,550 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 33,963 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 44,600 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,220 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,940 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 2,590 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 92,313 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 15,097 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,531 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -650 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -95,971 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 16,097 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,800 | 41,200–44,400 | 3.88 | 33.2% | 12.9% | -1,100 | 3,300 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 38,900 | 37,400–40,500 | 3.08 | 33.3% | 11.3% | -1,170 | 3,030 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 42,600 | 41,000–44,200 | 3.55 | 33.2% | 12.1% | -900 | 4,900 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 48,200 | 46,500–50,000 | 4.70 | 33.2% | 13.7% | -1,100 | 4,300 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 170,565 | 167,500–173,800 | 14.87 | 14.40–15.40 | -4,164 | 15,659 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 176,500 | 171,000–182,000 | 16.00 | 15.20–16.90 | -4,400 | 16,100 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 183,200 | 176,000–190,500 | 17.20 | 16.20–18.30 | -4,600 | 17,200 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 190,500 | 181,000–200,000 | 18.50 | 17.20–19.90 | -4,800 | 18,400 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Open approximately 15 new stores and 40-50 new SRS locations in fiscal 2026
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013 and Q1 FY26 prepared remarks page 6 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.revenue, cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy0.revenue
Capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of total sales in fiscal 2026
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, headline.fcf
Comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2.0% and total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, including GMS, new stores, branches and tuck-ins; SRS mid-single-digit organic growth
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011 and Q1 FY26 prepared remarks page 6 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.revenue, headline.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_26.revenue
Gross margin of approximately 33.1% for fiscal 2026, with mix pressure from GMS
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.gross_profit, horizons.fy0.gross_profit
Operating margin 12.4% to 12.6% and adjusted operating margin 12.8% to 13.0%
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.operating_income, horizons.fy0.operating_income
Net interest expense of approximately $2.3 billion
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000018 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.interest_expense, income_statement.interest_other_net_expense
Adjusted diluted EPS to grow approximately flat to 4.0% from $14.69, excluding ~$0.50 after-tax acquired-intangible amortization
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022 · horizon fy0
flows into: bridge.adjustments.acquired_intangible_amortization_net_of_tax, bridge.non_gaap_net_income, headline.eps_adjusted, horizons.fy0.eps_adjusted
Quarterly dividend of $2.33 per share (annual $9.32); 156th consecutive quarter paid
0000354950-26-000026:hd_exhibit991x02012026.htm:b0000020 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, balance_sheet.retained_earnings, horizons.fy0.cff
Share repurchases remain paused; $11.7 billion remains on the August 2023 authorization
0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000189 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, balance_sheet.treasury_stock
Complete store operations-experience / interconnected-fulfillment transition by end of fiscal 2026 and continue Pro digital workspace and complex-order delivery investments
Q1 FY26 prepared remarks pages 3-4 (ir:acca82e3e118bef4b9cf0a2c2a6ad9b38b95bd8d5ed1ed9a71d56efa98343235) · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.selling_general_admin, cash_flow.capex, quarterly_path.fq3_26.revenue
Q2 comparable sales at or above +1.5% with comparable transactions no worse than -0.5%
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K / EX-99.1 (expected mid-to-late August 2026)
Q2 gross margin at or above 32.9% despite a full quarter of GMS mix
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K income statement
Q2 operating income at or above $6.5 billion (seasonal operating margin ≥13.5%)
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K
Fiscal 2026 guidance held or raised and first-half comps imply the 2.0% high end of the comps range is still live
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K guidance section
Q3 FY26 gross margin recovers to ≥33.2% as GMS begins to anniversary
checkable at: Q3 FY26 10-Q and earnings release
Q2 comparable sales negative, or comparable transactions worse than -2.0%
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K selected sales data
Q2 gross margin below 32.5%, implying GMS plus core mix/tariff pressure beyond the 75 bp Q1 hit
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K income statement
Company cuts fiscal 2026 total-sales growth below 2.5% or adjusted EPS growth below flat
checkable at: Q2 FY26 earnings 8-K guidance section
Merchandise inventories still above $27 billion at Q2 end with inventory turns below 4.1x
checkable at: Q2 FY26 10-Q balance sheet and MD&A
Q4 FY26 or FY26 full-year operating margin prints below 12.2%, missing the 12.4–12.6% commitment
checkable at: Q4 FY26 / FY26 year-end 8-K
What must be true: Housing stays pressured but does not worsen: existing-home turnover remains low, yet repair-and-remodel and Pro maintenance hold, so comps stay in the 0–2% band rather than turning lastingly negative. GMS is a sales adder, not a structural margin problem — the ~70 bp mix hit fades as it anniversaries in Q3/Q4 and SRS organic growth stays mid-single digit. Ticket growth from mix and modest inflation continues to offset negative transactions. Interconnected fulfillment and Pro tools convert the double-digit digital growth into share without another 20+ bp opex delever. Capex stays near 2.5% of sales, buybacks stay paused, and the $2.33 dividend is covered by FCF above $15 billion for the year.
Home Depot reports Q2 FY26 (quarter ended August 2) against a $45.3B / $4.68 adj-EPS year-ago print that did not include GMS. The Q1 infographic already framed a demand tape that is “in line”: $41.8B sales, +0.6% comps, $3.30 GAAP / $3.43 adj EPS, with management reaffirming 2.5–4.5% sales and flat-to-4% adj EPS. Three things decide the print and the reaction. First, comps: Q1 was ticket (+2.2%) over negative transactions (−1.3%); Q2 is the outdoor/project peak, so a second quarter of negative traffic or a weather miss would undermine the 2H bridge. Second, mix: Q1 GM was 33.0% (−75 bp), almost all GMS; a full GMS quarter in Q2 should keep GM near 32.8–33.0% versus 33.4% last year — any 32.5% handle is a miss versus the 33.1% year guide. Third, the outlook: we expect a reaffirm, not a raise. We model $47.1B sales (+4.0% reported, ~+0.8% comps plus GMS), 32.85% GM, $6.34B EBIT, $4.49 adj EPS and $4.1B FCF, with CP paydown and the $2.33 dividend absorbing cash and buybacks still paused. Comps ≥1% and GM no worse than ~32.8% with a reaffirm is constructive; a guide cut or negative comps plus sub-32.5% GM is the downside catalyst.
The Q1 FY26 infographic and 8-K/10-Q pin the jumping-off point at $41,765M sales, 33.0% GM, 11.9% OM, $3.30/$3.43 EPS, $6,032M CFO and $1,601M cash, with FY26 guide of 2.5–4.5% sales, comps 0–2%, 33.1% GM, 12.4–12.6% OM, $2.3B net interest, capex 2.5% of sales and adj EPS flat to +4% from $14.69. Q2 is the seasonal peak (FY25 Q2 was $45,277M, +1.0% comps, 33.41% GM, $4.68 adj EPS) and the first full GMS-in-Q2 compare (GMS closed 4 Sep 2025, so it is incremental in Q1 and Q2 FY26). I apply a 0.8% core comp plus ~$1.45B of GMS and a small new-store add to get $47,100M (+4.0% reported), which sits in the middle of the year-guide run-rate after the $41.8B Q1. GM is marked at 32.85% (FY25 Q2 33.41% less a ~55–70 bp GMS mix hit, slightly better than Q1’s −75 bp because outdoor mix is richer), producing $15,472M gross profit. Opex is levered on the seasonal sales spike but still carries GMS SG&A and ~$870M of D&A, for $6,336M EBIT (13.45% OM — Q2 is always the high-water mark and still leaves FY OM at 12.44% after softer Q3/Q4). Tax at 24.5% and $575M net interest yield $4,350M NI / $4.36 GAAP / $4.49 adj after $129M after-tax intangibles. Cash: Q2 CFO $5,191M after a modest WC use following Q1’s AP rebuild; capex −$1,050M; FCF $4,141M; ~$1.2B CP paydown and the $2.33 dividend dominate CFF; buybacks stay at zero. I do not take the high end of guide — Q1 comps were only +0.6%, April was negative, transactions are still down, and housing affordability has not eased — so FY26 lands at $170.6B / $14.87 adj EPS, a reaffirm not a raise. Out-years assume 3.5–4.0% sales, gradual GM/OM recovery as GMS mixes in and Pro tools convert digital growth, with FCF funding a rising dividend and, later, a modest buyback restart.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T194811441991Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T194811441991Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.