RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T194212845131Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY2026 net sales (USD millions)
41,765
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY2026 net earnings (USD millions)
3,289
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS (USD)
3.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS, non-GAAP (USD)
3.43
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY2026 comparable sales growth (%)
0.6
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000005
FY2026 guidance: total sales growth approximately 2.5% to 4.5% (low end, %)
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
FY2026 guidance: adjusted diluted EPS growth flat to +4% off FY2025 base of $14.69 (USD)
14.69
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022
FY2026 guidance: capex approximately 2.5% of total sales (%)
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023
Q1 FY2026 net cash provided by operating activities (USD millions)
6,032
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000052
Q1 FY2026 acquired intangible asset amortization (USD millions)
171
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000058
Cash and cash equivalents at May 3, 2026 (USD millions)
1,601
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000047
FY2026 planned capital expenditures (~$4 billion, USD millions)
4,000
0001628280-26-038247 · 0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000289
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 46,700 | +11.8% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 31,300 | +11.8% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,400 | +11.7% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,087 | +1.6% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 865 | +2.9% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 8,952 | +1.7% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,448 | +29.5% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -15 | +114.3% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 610 | -0.2% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 595 | -1.5% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 5,853 | +33.7% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,353 | +24.4% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,500 | +36.8% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 995 | +0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 5 | +36.6% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 997 | +0.1% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.51 | +36.7% |
Bridge: net income 4,500 + acquired_intangible_asset_amortization 170 + income_tax_impact_of_non_gaap_adjustment -45 = non-GAAP net income 4,625 ÷ 997M shares = 4.64 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,500 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 920 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 170 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 185 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | -2,025 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 3,750 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -1,050 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -75 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 25 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -1,100 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | 1,500 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 10 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -65 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 30 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | 0 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,323 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | -110 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -958 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | 1,692 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 8 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | 1,700 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 3,301 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 6,350 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 25,300 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,500 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 36,451 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 28,110 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,350 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,520 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,080 |
| Other assets | 804 | 810 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 107,321 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 2,003 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 13,500 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,400 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 850 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,780 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 250 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 5,110 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,505 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,300 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 32,698 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 44,835 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,230 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,900 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 2,570 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 91,233 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 14,940 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,683 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -654 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -95,971 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 16,088 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,900 | 42,000–43,800 | 3.62 | 33.1% | 12.1% | -1,075 | 2,425 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 37,900 | 37,000–38,800 | 2.56 | 33.0% | 10.0% | -1,075 | 3,525 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 41,900 | 41,100–42,700 | 3.42 | 33.1% | 11.7% | -1,075 | 4,825 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 45,600 | 44,600–46,600 | 4.45 | 33.3% | 13.8% | -1,150 | 2,950 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 169,265 | 166,800–171,600 | 14.25 | 13.80–14.70 | -4,200 | 13,682 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 174,300 | 169,500–179,000 | 15.55 | 14.60–16.50 | -4,400 | 14,100 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 180,900 | 175,500–186,500 | 16.90 | 15.80–18.00 | -4,600 | 15,200 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 188,100 | 181,500–195,000 | 18.38 | 17.10–19.60 | -4,800 | 16,200 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Invest approximately $4 billion in capex in fiscal 2026, ~2.5% of net sales, across new stores, existing stores, interconnected experience and Pro initiatives (10-Q MD&A and Q1 FY26 release)
0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000289 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex
Pay and grow the dividend (raised 1.3% to $2.33/share quarterly in February 2026); dividends are the second priority of capital allocation after investing in the business
0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000290 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, horizons.fy0.cff
Share repurchases paused since March 2024 with no plans to resume in fiscal 2026 while reducing outstanding debt; $11.7B authorization remains
0001628280-26-038247:hd-20260503.htm:b0000285 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.long_term_debt_repayments, cash_flow.short_term_debt_repayments
Adjusted diluted EPS excludes acquired intangible asset amortization (~$0.50 after-tax for FY2026; $171M pre-tax in Q1), from SRS and GMS deals
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000068 · horizon fy0
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, income_statement.depreciation_amortization
Approximately 15 new stores in fiscal 2026, extending the ~2,361-store footprint, plus over 1,280 SRS locations driving distribution growth
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013 · horizon fy1
flows into: horizons.fy0.revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_26.revenue
Total comparable sales at or above +2.0% with comparable customer transactions inflecting positive (vs -1.3% in Q1 FY26)
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 earnings 8-K (November 2026)
Gross margin back at or above 33.2% for the quarter as GMS mix dilution is lapped and tariff costs are passed through
checkable at: Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q (November 2026)
H2 FY2026 adjusted operating margin run-rate at or above 13.0%, evidencing SRS/GMS synergy capture
checkable at: Q4 FY2026 earnings 8-K (February 2027)
Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow at or above $18B with capex held near 2.5% of sales, funding dividend growth and debt paydown
checkable at: FY2026 Form 10-K (March 2027)
Total comparable sales turn negative in the quarter, breaking the stabilization thesis embedded in the flat-to-+2% comp guide
checkable at: Q2 FY2026 earnings 8-K (August 2026)
FY2026 guidance cut: total sales growth low end below 2.5% or adjusted diluted EPS growth below 0% (below $14.69)
checkable at: Q2 FY2026 earnings 8-K (August 2026)
SG&A deleverage persists: SG&A above 19.5% of net sales with comps below +1%, signaling structural cost pressure from SRS/GMS
checkable at: Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q (August/September 2026)
Inventory growth exceeds sales growth by more than 300bp (inventory turnover below 4.0x), signaling demand miss and margin risk
checkable at: Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q (August/September 2026)
Buyback pause extended into fiscal 2027 alongside stalled debt reduction (long-term debt plus current installments above ~$50B)
checkable at: Q4 FY2026 earnings 8-K (February 2027)
What must be true: Housing turnover remains depressed but repair-and-remodel demand stays resilient, keeping comps modestly positive; SRS and GMS integration sustains mid-single-digit distribution revenue growth and ramps synergies so operating margin stabilizes near 12% GAAP by H2 FY2026; tariff pass-throughs lift ticket without crushing transactions; no consumer recession; interest expense stays near $2.3-2.4B annually as maturing notes are refinanced at similar coupons; capex holds near 2.5% of sales and the buyback pause continues, directing free cash flow to dividends and deleveraging.
HD reports Q2 FY26 (quarter ended Aug 2) against its toughest compare and peak spring selling season. The setup: Q1 printed comps of +0.6% (US +0.4%) with adjusted EPS down 3.7% to $3.43, and management reaffirmed FY26 guidance of +2.5-4.5% total sales and flat-to-+4% adjusted EPS. Three factors decide the print. First, comp trajectory: Q2 laps last year's +1.0% total comp with GMS now in the base for the full quarter; FX adds ~50-60bp and tariff-related ticket inflation helps, but housing turnover remains the ceiling on big-ticket demand. Second, margin: GMS dilution and SRS integration drove the 100bp Q1 operating-margin decline; watch whether gross margin holds ~33% and whether SG&A leverage improves on the larger sales base. Third, guidance: with one soft quarter in the books, any trim to the comp or EPS range resets the year. We model revenue of $46.7B (+3.2%), adjusted EPS of $4.64 (down ~1% YoY), and free cash flow of ~$2.7B as seasonal working capital reverses. The reaction hinges on comps and the guide: a hold with comps >= +1.5% is fine; a cut is not.
Anchors are taken from the Q1 FY2026 8-K/10-Q: sales $41,765M, net earnings $3,289M, GAAP diluted EPS $3.30, adjusted EPS $3.43, CFO $6,032M, cash $1,601M, and reaffirmed FY26 guidance (sales +2.5-4.5%, comps flat to +2%, gross margin ~33.1%, operating margin 12.4-12.6% GAAP / 12.8-13.0% adjusted, tax ~24.3%, net interest ~$2.3B, capex ~2.5% of sales, ~15 new stores). For Q2 FY26 I start from the year-ago quarter (sales $45,277M, gross profit $15,125M, op income $6,555M, net income $4,551M, adjusted EPS $4.68 implied by reported $4.55 GAAP plus $0.13 amortization) and apply: GMS annualization already in the base, +3.2% total sales growth (comps ~+1.2%, FX ~+50bp, ~15 new stores), gross margin of 33.0% (down ~40bp YoY on GMS mix, consistent with Q1's 80bp decline moderating as distribution annualizes), SG&A deleverage of ~10bp, and D&A up with the larger asset base. That yields GAAP operating income of $6,448M (-1.6% YoY), net income of $4,500M at a 23.1% tax rate, GAAP diluted EPS of $4.51 and adjusted EPS of $4.64 (adding back $170M pre-tax / $125M after-tax acquired intangible amortization), modestly below guidance-implied growth and below last year's $4.68 adjusted. Cash flow reflects the normal Q2 seasonal working-capital reversal (inventory down ~$1B, payables down ~$1.9B from the Q1 peak), capex of $1,050M tracking the ~$4B FY plan, dividends of $2,323M ($2.33 x ~997M shares), no buybacks per the stated pause, and commercial paper rebuilt by ~$1.5B after Q1 debt maturities, lifting cash to ~$3.3B. The balance sheet rolls forward cleanly with retained earnings +$2,177M and equity rising to ~$16.1B. Out-quarters fade SRS acquisition tailwinds (GMS annualizes September 2026), hold comps near +1-2%, and recover operating margin toward 13%+ by FY2028-29 as synergies ramp; FY2026 EPS lands below the flat-to-+4% guide at ~$14.25 adjusted, which I treat as the reason guidance risk is to the downside at this print. I expect guidance to be reaffirmed at this release (revenue $168.8-172.1B, adjusted EPS $14.69-15.28) with trimming risk pushed to Q3. Corrections in this version: eps_adjusted p50 set to 4.64 (= non-GAAP net income $4,625M / 997M diluted shares), the sales-growth guidance anchor now cites the 2.5% figure that appears in the referenced block, and all thesis flows_into entries reference forecast lines present in this reply.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T194212845131Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T194212845131Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.