RptdFinFcst · v5 forward slate · sealed snap-354950-20260817T193131763568Z
Fiscal 2026 Q2 (quarter ended August 2, 2026), reporting August 18 before the open; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-17T12:00:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY26 Net sales
41,765
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY26 Gross profit
13,781
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY26 Net earnings
3,289
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000040
Q1 FY26 Diluted EPS (GAAP)
3.3
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000006
Q1 FY26 Net cash provided by operating activities
6,032
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000052
Q1 FY26 Cash and cash equivalents
1,601
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000047
FY26 Guidance Total sales growth low
2.5
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000011
FY26 Guidance Gross margin
33.1
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014
FY26 Guidance Adjusted diluted EPS growth from 14.69
14.69
0000354950-26-000101 · 0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000022
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 41,765 | 46,408 | +11.1% |
| Cost of sales | 27,984 | 30,995 | +10.8% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 13,781 | 15,413 | +11.8% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 7,959 | 8,160 | +2.5% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 841 | 860 | +2.3% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 8,800 | 9,020 | +2.5% |
| Operating income ✓ | 4,981 | 6,393 | +28.3% |
| Interest income and other, net | -7 | -12 | +71.4% |
| Interest expense | 611 | 585 | -4.3% |
| Interest and other, net expense | 604 | 573 | -5.1% |
| Earnings before provision for income taxes ✓ | 4,377 | 5,820 | +33.0% |
| Provision for income taxes | 1,088 | 1,414 | +30.0% |
| Net earnings ✓ | 3,289 | 4,406 | +34.0% |
| Basic weighted average common shares | 994 | 993 | -0.1% |
| Basic earnings per share | 3 | 4 | +34.1% |
| Diluted weighted average common shares | 996 | 994 | -0.2% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 3.30 | 4.43 | +34.2% |
Bridge: net income 4,406 + acquired_intangible_amortization 150 + tax_effect_intangible -36 = non-GAAP net income 4,520 ÷ 994M shares = 4.55 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net earnings | 3,289 | 4,406 |
| Depreciation and amortization, excluding amortization of intangible assets | 910 | 925 |
| Intangible asset amortization | 171 | 150 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 178 | 120 |
| Working-capital and other operating adjustments, net (residual) | 1,484 | 499 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 6,032 | 6,100 |
| Capital expenditures | -844 | -980 |
| Payments for businesses acquired, net | -286 | -100 |
| Other investing activities | 21 | 15 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -1,109 | -1,065 |
| Repayments of short-term debt, net | -961 | -400 |
| Proceeds from long-term debt, net of discounts | 69 | 30 |
| Repayments of long-term debt | -1,425 | -1,200 |
| Proceeds from sales of common stock | 33 | 20 |
| Repurchases of common stock | 0 | -350 |
| Cash dividends | -2,320 | -2,330 |
| Other financing activities | -109 | -110 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -4,713 | -4,340 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents before exchange-rate effects ✓ | 210 | 695 |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | 2 | 5 |
| Net change in cash and cash equivalents including exchange-rate effects ✓ | 212 | 700 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,601 | 2,301 |
| Receivables, net | 6,624 | 6,100 |
| Merchandise inventories | 27,280 | 26,023 |
| Other current assets | 1,667 | 1,700 |
| Total current assets ✓ | 37,172 | 36,124 |
| Net property and equipment | 27,930 | 27,985 |
| Operating lease right-of-use assets | 9,275 | 9,300 |
| Goodwill | 22,479 | 22,579 |
| Intangible assets, net | 10,244 | 10,094 |
| Other assets | 804 | 810 |
| Total assets ✓ | 107,904 | 106,892 |
| Short-term debt | 3,503 | 3,103 |
| Accounts payable | 14,373 | 13,000 |
| Accrued salaries and related expenses | 2,237 | 2,450 |
| Sales taxes payable | 800 | 750 |
| Deferred revenue | 2,682 | 2,700 |
| Income taxes payable | 851 | 600 |
| Current installments of long-term debt | 5,178 | 5,200 |
| Current operating lease liabilities | 1,484 | 1,500 |
| Other accrued expenses | 4,472 | 4,500 |
| Total current liabilities ✓ | 35,580 | 33,803 |
| Long-term debt, excluding current installments | 44,828 | 43,606 |
| Long-term operating lease liabilities | 8,164 | 8,180 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,898 | 2,958 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2,560 | 2,600 |
| Total liabilities ✓ | 94,030 | 91,147 |
| Common stock | 90 | 90 |
| Paid-in capital | 14,907 | 15,047 |
| Retained earnings | 95,506 | 97,582 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | -658 | -653 |
| Treasury stock, at cost | -95,971 | -96,321 |
| Total stockholders' equity ✓ | 13,874 | 15,745 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2026 Q3 (ending late October or early November 2026) | 42,500 | 41,600–43,400 | 3.94 | 33.2% | 12.7% | -900 | 4,100 |
| fiscal 2026 Q4 (ending late January or early February 2027) | 39,500 | 38,600–40,400 | 3.08 | 33.2% | 11.1% | -1,000 | 3,800 |
| fiscal 2027 Q1 (ending early May 2027) | 43,500 | 42,600–44,400 | 3.60 | 33.2% | 12.0% | -950 | 5,250 |
| fiscal 2027 Q2 (ending early August 2027) | 48,000 | 47,000–49,000 | 4.79 | 33.2% | 14.0% | -1,000 | 5,500 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2027) | 170,173 | 168,500–171,800 | 15.00 | 14.70–15.30 | -3,724 | 18,208 |
| fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2028) | 175,500 | 172,000–179,000 | 15.85 | 15.30–16.40 | -4,300 | 19,200 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2029) | 181,000 | 176,000–186,000 | 16.60 | 16.00–17.20 | -4,500 | 20,500 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending January 2030) | 187,000 | 181,000–193,000 | 17.40 | 16.80–18.00 | -4,700 | 21,800 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Gross margin of approximately 33.1% for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000014 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.gross_profit, horizons.fy0.gross_profit
Operating margin approximately 12.4% to 12.6% GAAP, 12.8% to 13.0% adjusted for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000015 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.operating_income, horizons.fy0.operating_income
Effective tax rate approximately 24.3% for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000017 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.income_tax, horizons.fy0.net_income
Net interest expense approximately $2.3 billion for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000018 · horizon fy0
flows into: income_statement.interest_expense, income_statement.interest_other_net_expense
Capital expenditures approximately 2.5% of total sales for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000023 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.capex, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy0.fcf
Approximately 15 new stores in FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000013 · horizon fy0
flows into: balance_sheet.net_property_equipment, balance_sheet.operating_lease_assets
Adjusted diluted EPS excludes ~$0.50 after-tax acquired intangible amortization for FY26
0000354950-26-000101:hd_exhibit991x05032026.htm:b0000068 · horizon fy0
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, headline.eps_adjusted
Q2 total comparable sales >2.0% and revenue >47.0B (beat vs 4.8% Q1 total growth) with gross margin >=33.2% in 10-Q for quarter ended Aug 2 2026
checkable at: FY26 Q2 10-Q (August 2026) filing
Q2 FCF (cfo+capex) >5.5B and net_change_cash positive >500M despite tariff headwinds in Q2 cash flow statement
checkable at: FY26 Q2 10-Q cash flow statement
FY26 operating margin recovers to >=13.5% in Q3 and adjusted EPS guides to high end ~15.28 in Q2 press release update
checkable at: FY26 Q2 8-K Exhibit 99.1 guidance update
Q2 gross profit margin <33.0% (<15.3B on 46.4B sales) or cost_of_sales deleverage >6% YoY in Q2 income statement
checkable at: FY26 Q2 10-Q income statement
Q2 comparable sales <=0% or total sales growth <2% YoY (revenue <=46.1B) signaling housing demand stall in Q2 10-Q MD&A
checkable at: FY26 Q2 10-Q MD&A comparable sales disclosure
Q2 CFO <5.2B or working-capital other_operating negative (<0) and inventory >27B despite sales slowdown in Q2 balance sheet/cash flow
checkable at: FY26 Q2 10-Q balance sheet and cash flow
What must be true: Q2 seasonal lift to ~46.4B (2.4% YoY, ~1% comps) must hold despite housing affordability and tariff uncertainty flagged in May - demand similar to H2 2024/H1 2025 but not worsening. Gross margin must stabilize near 33.2% (tariff mitigation via supply chain diversification) not collapse below 33%. SG&A leverage must improve sequentially from Q1 19.1% to ~17.6% as SRS/GMS integration anniversaries. That yields operating margin ~13.8% vs 11.9% in Q1, scaling to full-year ~12.5% guided. FY capex at 2.5% of sales must fund ~15 new stores without breaking FCF >5B in Q2 and >18B for year. If comps slip negative or tariffs push cost_of_sales >31B, thesis breaks.
Setup: HD beat Q1 sales (+4.8% to $41.8B) but missed on margin - operating income -3% to $4.98B, operating margin 11.9% vs 12.9% LY, EPS $3.30/$3.43 adjusted. Guidance reaffirmed for FY26 at 2.5-4.5% sales, flat to +2% comps, 33.1% gross, 12.4-12.6% operating (12.8-13.0% adj). The bar is low after 18 months of housing drag. What matters for Q2: 1) Does spring/summer seasonal demand hold? Q2 is 55% of H1 - we model 46.4B (+2.4% YoY, comps ~1%) vs Q2 LY 45.3B. 2) Margin defense against tariffs: Q1 gross 33.0% already 10bp below guide; Q2 needs 33.2% to stay on track. 3) SRS/GMS anniversary - SG&A was +8.7% YoY in Q2 LY; lapping should ease opex growth to ~5% and let operating margin recover to ~13.8% from 14.5% LY. FCF seasonal pop to ~5.1B will be watched. Beat on comps + gross recapture = relief rally; miss on either confirms consumer is pulling back on big-ticket.
Anchored Q1 actuals from filed 8-K/10-Q (sales 41,765 gross 13,781 op inc 4,981 net 3,289 EPS 3.30 adj 3.43, CFO 6,032, cash 1,601, balance sheet 107,904). FY26 guide reaffirmed May 19: sales +2.5-4.5%, comps flat to +2%, gross ~33.1%, op margin 12.4-12.6% (adj 12.8-13.0%), tax 24.3%, interest 2.3B, capex 2.5%, 15 stores. Macro: housing turnover still depressed, rates high, consumer uncertainty elevated (Decker commentary), but HD noted demand stable vs 2025 and share gains; SRS/GMS boost now lapped. Q2 LY baseline 45,277 sales, 1.0% comps, 33.4% gross, 14.5% op margin. Tariffs cited as forward risk in 2026 filings - expect 10-20bp gross pressure but offset by ticket (+2.2% in Q1) and mix. Model sequential sales lift 11% Q1->Q2 vs 13.6% LY reflecting softer transactions (-1.3% comps Q1). SG&A assumed 8,160 (+4.9% YoY vs +8.7% LY) showing leverage improvement; D&A 860 stable. Interest ~573, tax 24.3% => net 4,406 GAAP 4.43; add 150 intangible less 36 tax => adj 4.55 down ~3% YoY mirroring Q1 trend but better than guide's flat implies H2 recovery. CFO 6.1B seasonal, capex 0.98B (2.1% sales low vs guide but Q1 also low), FCF 5.12B. Balance sheet rolled: cash +700 to 2,301, inventory down 1.26B seasonally, payables down, equity build via retained less dividends/buybacks 350M. Future quarters trajectory to FY 170.2B revenue (3.3% YoY) and adj EPS 15.00 within guide, with slow 3% CAGR thereafter housing normalization, margins rebuilding to ~13-14% op by FY28.
Sealed as snap-354950-20260817T193131763568Z over corpus manifest 4678dd1f… (278 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-354950-20260817T193131763568Z. Prompt v5.6. Nothing here is investment advice.