# MU Quarter forecast · Q1 FY27 > Micron Technology reports Q1 FY27 in December. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 30 September 2026, 17:31 ET and do not change. Canonical: https://pricedin.markets/mu/fq1-2027/preview/ cutoff 30 September 2026, 17:31 ET Micron Technology reports Q1 FY27 in December. Date not yet set. Our numbers below have a cutoff of 30 September 2026, 17:31 ET and do not change. MU · earnings preview · our forecast as of 2026-09-30 17:31:46 ET · 5 AI forecasters · 80% ranges, 1 in 10 to 9 in 10 ## MU reports Q1 FY27 The report date is not in the calendar yet. Next report · Q1 FY27 Sales $63.0B vs $61.5B outlook +2% Adjusted EPS $39.05 +717% on Q1 FY26 Quarter after · Q2 FY27 Sales $69.7B +192% on Q2 FY26 Adjusted EPS $44.00 +261% on Q2 FY26 ### Q1 FY27 · the quarter MU reports ##### Sales PricedIn **$63.0B** $59.8B – $67.4B $59.8B $63.0B $67.4B ##### adjusted EPS PricedIn **$39.05** $36.38 – $42.56 $36.38 $39.05 $42.56 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. All five sit at or above the company's outlook: Grok takes it exactly at $61.5B, while Opus, at $64.5B, leans hardest on the record of beats. Sales of about $63.0B, a little above Micron's own outlook, because the company has beaten its outlook every quarter of the boom. Sales **$63.0B** $59.8B – $67.4B · +361% on Q1 FY26 ($13.6B) Adjusted EPS **$39.05** $36.38 – $42.56 · +717% on Q1 FY26 ($4.78) #### Investment and cash generation Base case Capital spending **$12.2B** Free cash flow **$36.1B** Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. Micron closed fiscal 2026 with fourth-quarter sales of $54.2B, up 31% on the quarter before, a gross margin of 87% and adjusted earnings of $33.42 a share. Every result beat the top of the company's outlook, though growth slowed from 74% the quarter before, and most of the gain came from higher prices rather than more chips shipped. For the quarter ending in early December 2026, Micron guides sales to $61.5B, plus or minus $1.5B, a gross margin of about 86.25% and earnings of $38.15 a share. It calls this quarter the low point for gross margin this year, held back by roughly a billion dollars of extra costs, mostly incentive pay that was absorbed into inventory. Four of the five models sit above the outlook's midpoint, betting on another beat; the average is $63.0B, up 16% on the fourth quarter. Grok takes the company's figure as given. Opus is highest at $64.5B but notes the latest beat was the smallest. The average of $39.05 a share rests on a gross margin near 86%, operating costs of about $2.06B, a 15.5% tax rate and about 1.15 billion shares, since larger buybacks start only after December 9. #### Outlook against result Q3 FY25 +5.7% $8.8B → $9.3B Q4 FY25 +5.7% $10.7B → $11.3B Q1 FY26 +9.1% $12.5B → $13.6B Q2 FY26 +27.6% $18.7B → $23.9B Q3 FY26 +23.7% $33.5B → $41.5B Q4 FY26 +8.5% $50.0B → $54.2B Q1 FY27 +2.4% $61.5B → $63.0B Each outlook is the one the company gave before the quarter. The last row is the models' forecast. #### The quarter forecast, line by line | Line | Q4 FY26 reported | Q1 FY26 reported | Q1 FY27 forecast | Q2 FY26 reported | Q2 FY27 forecast | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | $54.2B | $13.6B | $63.0B | $23.9B | $69.7B | | Sales growth, year on year | +379% | +57% | +361% | +196% | +192% | | Cost of goods sold | $7.18B | $6.00B | $8.75B | $6.11B | $9.15B | | Gross margin | $47.0B | $7.6B | $54.2B | $17.8B | $60.6B | | Gross margin | 86.8% | 56.0% | 86.1% | 74.4% | 86.9% | | Research and development | $1.91B | $1.17B | $1.71B | $1.25B | $1.83B | | Selling, general, and administrative | $859M | $337M | $589M | $344M | $652M | | Restructure and asset impairments | — | — | $0 | — | $0 | | Other operating (income) expense, net | −$524M | −$2M | −$26M | −$26M | −$16M | | Operating income | $43.8B | $6.1B | $51.9B | $16.1B | $58.0B | | Operating margin | 80.7% | 45.0% | 82.4% | 67.6% | 83.3% | | Interest income | $0.57B | $0.14B | $0.90B | $0.15B | $1.00B | | Interest expense | — | $74.0M | $9.0M | $32.0M | $9.0M | | Other non-operating income (expense), net | −$88M | −$140M | −$61M | −$98M | −$65M | | Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in net income (loss) of equity method investees | $44.2B | $6.1B | $52.7B | $16.2B | $59.0B | | Income tax (provision) benefit | $6.58B | $0.83B | $8.17B | $2.37B | $9.14B | | Tax rate | 14.9% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 15.5% | | Equity in net income (loss) of equity method investees | $46.0M | $8.0M | $10.0M | −$4.0M | $10.0M | | Net income | $37.7B | $5.2B | $44.6B | $13.8B | $49.8B | | Diluted (in shares) | 1.15B | 1.14B | 1.15B | 1.14B | 1.14B | | Adjusted EPS | $33.42 | $4.78 | $39.05 | $12.20 | $44.00 | The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments. #### What it rests on **Sales outlook** $61.5B, plus or minus $1.5B, a record “We expect fiscal Q1 revenue to be a record $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Earnings per share outlook** $38.15, plus or minus $1, on about 1.15 billion shares “Based on a share count of approximately 1.15 billion shares, we expect EPS to be $38.15 per share, plus or minus $1.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Gross margin floor** This quarter expected to be the year's low point for gross margin “We anticipate fiscal Q1 to be the floor for gross margins in fiscal 2027.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **One-off extra costs** Roughly a billion dollars of higher cost this quarter “And in total, these factors in the first quarter are roughly a billion dollars of higher cost in Q1.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Last quarter's sales** $54.2B, against $41.5B the quarter before “Revenue of $54.23 billion versus $41.46 billion for the prior quarter and $11.32 billion for the same period last year” September 30, 2026 earnings release **Free cash flow** Expected significantly higher than the fourth quarter's $33B “you will see free cash flow is significantly higher than the $33 billion we reported in fiscal Q4.” September 30, 2026 earnings call #### Low and high Base $63.0B sales, $39.05 adjusted EPS: the story above. **$12.2B** Capital spending **$36.1B** Free cash flow Cash walk not supplied by every model. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$59.8B** sales · −5% vs base **$36.38** EPS · −7% vs base Sales would come in near $59.8B, below the bottom of the outlook range, with earnings near $36.38 a share. That needs price increases to stall within weeks, customers to trim the memory they put in each system, and the extra costs from incentive pay to weigh more than planned. Growth already slowed to 31% in the fourth quarter, from 74% the quarter before. - **Price increases stall sooner than management expects *3 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** memory prices flatten or fall - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Memory price increases fade earlier than management expects. - **Grok 4.7** Prices stop rising within a quarter or two and then fall - **Customers trim memory in each system *3 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** customers cut memory content per system - **GLM 5.3** Customers cutting memory content per server and per device - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Slower customer spending and less memory per device - **AI buyers pause their spending *2 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** AI infrastructure spending pause - **GLM 5.3** A pause in AI infrastructure spending among a small group of hyperscalers The five lows run from $59.0B (GLM 5.3) to $61.0B (Opus 5.5). First sign Sales for the quarter ending December 3, 2026 below the outlook's range, reported in December. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$67.4B** sales · +7% vs base **$42.56** EPS · +9% vs base Sales would reach about $67.4B, far above the top of the outlook, with earnings near $42.56 a share. That needs prices to keep rising quickly as customers ask for more supply than Micron can build, and the gross margin to beat the company's 86.25% guide. Fourth-quarter sales of $54.2B beat the company's $50.0B outlook. - **Shortage deepens and prices keep rising fast *3 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** prices keep rising through 2027 and barely ease after - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Persistent shortages and stronger pricing - **Grok 4.7** so price increases do not slow as much as in the base case - **Customers ask for more supply than exists *3 of 5*** - **Grok 4.7** Customers keep asking for more supply than Micron can build - **MiMo-V2.6-Pro** Customer upside requests keep demand above supply with no line of sight to balance - **GLM 5.3** More than three quarters of 2027 output already committed, with customers asking for more supply The five highs run from $65.0B (GLM 5.3) to $71.5B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro). First sign Sales above $67B for the quarter ending December 3, 2026, reported in December, with gross margin above the guided floor. #### Watch The report on the quarter ending December 3, 2026: sales above $63.0B and a next-quarter outlook above $72.0B point higher; sales below $60.0B or an outlook below about $66.0B point lower. ### Q2 FY27 · the quarter after ##### Sales PricedIn **$69.7B** $64.1B – $76.4B $64.1B $69.7B $76.4B ##### adjusted EPS PricedIn **$44.00** $39.22 – $49.28 $39.22 $44.00 $49.28 **Middle** the forecast **80% range** 1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number. All five expect growth on the first quarter; Glm sees only 6.7%, reaching $66.5B, while Opus and Mimo see $72.0B. Sales of about $69.7B as growth continues every quarter and higher prices for high-bandwidth memory start in January. Sales **$69.7B** $64.1B – $76.4B · +192% on Q2 FY26 ($23.9B) Adjusted EPS **$44.00** $39.22 – $49.28 · +261% on Q2 FY26 ($12.20) #### Investment and cash generation Capital spending: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: not supplied by every model Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending. Micron expects fiscal 2027 to be another record year with sales rising every quarter, though prices should rise more slowly than in fiscal 2026. It expects gross margins to improve after the first quarter, but says the second quarter still carries extra costs, because a lighter drag from last year's incentive pay is offset by higher pay this year. The company has agreed most of its 2027 supply of high-bandwidth memory, the stacked chips used in AI processors, at significant price increases that take effect in January, inside this quarter. More than 75% of 2027 output is already committed, and larger buybacks begin on December 9, 2026. The models' average is up 11% on the first quarter. Glm is lowest at $66.5B, with growth of just 6.7%, while Opus and Mimo both reach $72.0B. The average of $44.00 a share, up 13% on the first quarter, comes from higher sales at a gross margin near 87%, a tax rate near 16% and slightly fewer shares as buybacks begin. #### What it rests on **Growth every quarter** Fiscal 2027 expected to be a record, with sales up every quarter “We expect fiscal 2027 to be another record year with sequential revenue growth each quarter.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Margins after first quarter** Higher gross margins after the first quarter, with more moderate price increases “We expect higher gross margins beyond fiscal Q1 for the remainder of fiscal 2027, with a more moderate rate of price increases.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Second-quarter pay costs** Less leftover incentive pay, offset by higher incentive pay for fiscal 2027 “Fiscal Q2 benefits from less of this fiscal Q4 related compensation expense. But this benefit is offset by the impact of higher fiscal 2027 incentive compensation.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **High-bandwidth memory prices** Most 2027 supply agreed at significant price increases over the year before “We have completed agreements for the vast majority of our calendar 2027 HBM bid supply with significant price increases year over year, narrowing the gross margin gap with conventional DRAM.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Output committed** More than 75% of 2027 output already committed “I'll tell you that 2027, more than 75% of our output is already committed for 2027.” September 30, 2026 earnings call **Buybacks step up** Capital return to increase from December 9, 2026 “As noted previously, we intend to increase our capital return from December 9, 2026, the second anniversary of the signature of our definitive CHIPS agreements.” September 30, 2026 earnings call #### Low and high Base $69.7B sales, $44.00 adjusted EPS: the story above. Low about 1 chance in 10 of worse **$64.1B** sales · −8% vs base **$39.22** EPS · −11% vs base Sales would grow only about 1.8% on the first quarter to roughly $64.1B, with earnings near $39.22 a share. Price increases would have to stop early in the year while incentive pay and new-factory costs stay high, so margins fail to recover. Micron's sales fell 7.5% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, before the boom took hold. - **Price increases fade sooner than management expects *3 of 5*** - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Memory price increases fade earlier than management expects. - **Grok 4.7** Prices stop rising within a quarter or two and then fall - **Opus 5.5** memory prices flatten or fall - **Customers use less memory per system *2 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** customers cut memory content per system - **Grok 4.7** Customers cut memory content or delay server orders because memory is a very large share of system cost. - **Pay and new-factory costs stay high *2 of 5*** - **Grok 4.7** Incentive pay and new-factory costs do not fall as fast as sales. - **MiMo-V2.6-Pro** Rising cost per bit (new technology nodes, factory start-up costs, incentive pay) squeezes margins as prices fall The five lows run from $62.5B (GLM 5.3) to $65.5B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro). First sign An outlook for this quarter below about $66.0B, given with the December 2026 results. High about 1 chance in 10 of better **$76.4B** sales · +10% vs base **$49.28** EPS · +12% vs base Sales would jump about 21% on the first quarter to roughly $76.4B, with earnings near $49.28 a share. That needs high-bandwidth memory to reprice sharply from January, customers to keep asking for more supply, and buybacks to cut the share count quickly. In the middle of fiscal 2026, sales grew 75% and then 74% a quarter. - **High-bandwidth memory prices step up from January *3 of 5*** - **Grok 4.7** High-bandwidth memory prices for calendar 2027 rise enough to close most of the margin gap with other memory. - **GLM 5.3** HBM growing faster than conventional DRAM through 2028 at sharply higher prices - **Opus 5.5** HBM repricing for calendar 2027 - **Demand outruns all new supply *3 of 5*** - **Opus 5.5** AI demand outruns all new capacity - **MiMo-V2.6-Pro** Customer upside requests keep demand above supply with no line of sight to balance - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Persistent shortages and stronger pricing - **Faster buybacks shrink the share count *2 of 5*** - **GPT-6.1 Sol** Faster return of excess cash through repurchases - **Grok 4.7** A much larger buyback, once the December 2026 restriction lifts, cuts the share count. The five highs run from $70.5B (GLM 5.3) to $82.0B (MiMo-V2.6-Pro). First sign An outlook for this quarter above $72.0B, given with the December 2026 results. #### Watch The December 2026 report sets this quarter's outlook: above $72.0B points higher, below about $66.0B points lower. Also watch whether gross margin rises past the first-quarter floor, and how large the new buyback authorization is.