PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY27 revenue (income statement)
81,615
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000065
Q2 FY27 revenue guidance ($91.0B ±2%)
91,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000038
Q2 FY27 GAAP opex guidance
8,500
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000041
Q1 FY27 total assets
259,474
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000067
Q1 FY27 net cash provided by operating activities
50,344
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000069
Q1 FY27 non-GAAP diluted EPS
1.87
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000005
Dividend raised to $0.25/qtr; +$80B buyback authorization
80,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000035
Q1 FY27 revenue guidance issued with Q4 FY26 (beaten by $3.6B)
78,000
0001045810-26-000019 · 0001045810-26-000019:q4fy26cfocommentary.htm:b0000043
Q1 FY27 Data Center revenue
75,246
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000008
Q1 FY27 payments related to repurchases of common stock
19,312
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000071
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 95,000 | +16.4% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,750 | +16.1% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 71,250 | +16.5% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 7,120 | +12.6% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,430 | +10.0% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,550 | +12.2% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 62,700 | +17.1% |
| Interest income | 540 | 540 | +0.0% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -105 | +2.9% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 4,000 | -74.9% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 4,435 | -72.9% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 67,135 | -4.0% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 11,077 | -4.4% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 56,058 | -3.9% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,350 | -0.2% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.30 | -3.8% |
Bridge: net income 56,058 + acquisition_related_and_other_costs 300 + other_oie_items 25 + gains_losses_from_equity_securities_net -4,000 + income_tax_impact_of_adjustments 700 = non-GAAP net income 53,083 ÷ 24,350M shares = 2.18 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 56,058 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,150 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | 800 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,100 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | -4,000 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -19,500 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 36,608 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,200 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -13,800 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -16,000 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -15,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,075 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -1,900 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -22,975 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | -2,367 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 10,870 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 287,130 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 298,000 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 67,000 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 231,000 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 108,000 | 101,000–114,000 | 2.46 | 74.5% | 65.6% | -2,500 | 52,500 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 120,000 | 110,000–128,000 | 2.75 | 74.5% | 65.8% | -2,800 | 57,200 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 128,000 | 113,000–140,000 | 2.90 | 74.2% | 65.5% | -3,000 | 59,000 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 136,000 | 117,000–150,000 | 3.08 | 74.3% | 65.4% | -3,200 | 56,800 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 404,600 | 393,000–418,000 | 9.25 | 8.75–9.75 | -9,300 | 192,700 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 545,000 | 480,000–605,000 | 12.40 | 10.50–14.20 | -13,500 | 246,500 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 660,000 | 540,000–780,000 | 15.00 | 12.00–18.00 | -18,000 | 312,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 740,000 | 560,000–900,000 | 16.70 | 12.50–21.00 | -22,000 | 353,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Annual product cadence — Blackwell Ultra now, Vera Rubin/NVIDIA Photonics in 2026, Rubin Ultra/Kyber in 2027 — 'annual rhythm for the world to build out AI infrastructure'
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A slides (IR-OBSERVED, sha256 9ebefdde...a5924, page 3, inspected via read_visual) · horizon FY27–FY29
flows into: quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, quarterly_path.fq1_28.revenue, horizons.fy1.gross_profit
Q2 FY27 outlook: revenue $91.0B ±2% with zero China DC compute; GAAP GM 74.9%, GAAP opex $8.5B; FY27 tax rate 16–18%
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000038, b0000039, b0000041, b0000042 · horizon Q2 FY27
flows into: income_statement.revenue, income_statement.cost_of_revenue, income_statement.total_operating_expenses, income_statement.income_tax
$119.0B supply commitments and inventory 'secured to meet demand beyond the next several quarters'
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000031 · horizon FY27–FY28
flows into: quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, cash_flow.other_operating
Dividend raised to $0.25/qtr and $80B added to buyback authorization, without expiration
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000035 · horizon FY27 onward
flows into: cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.buybacks, horizons.fy1.cff
Substantial increase in Q2 cash taxes; DSO expected to return to more normal levels next quarter
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000030 and b0000033 · horizon Q2 FY27
flows into: cash_flow.other_operating, cash_flow.cfo, headline.fcf
Heavy strategic investment program ($18.6B non-marketable purchases in Q1; $30B multi-year cloud commitments) alongside $500B enterprise-IT and $50T physical-AI TAM claims
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000069; q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000032; GTC slides page 3 · horizon FY27–FY30
flows into: cash_flow.other_investing, horizons.fy2.cfi, income_statement.other_income_expense
Q2 FY27 revenue ≥ $95B with Data Center ≥ $88B and non-GAAP gross margin ≥ 75.0%, plus a Q3 FY27 revenue guide ≥ $105B — confirms Blackwell Ultra/Rubin cadence outrunning supply constraints
checkable at: Q2 FY27 8-K/press release (late Aug 2026)
FY27 CFO ≥ $200B with H2 quarterly CFO/revenue conversion back above 50% after the Q2 cash-tax catch-up
checkable at: Q3 FY27 10-Q and FY27 10-K
ACIE (AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise) sub-market sustains >25% q/q growth for two more quarters, evidencing customer diversification beyond top-4 hyperscalers
checkable at: Q2 and Q3 FY27 CFO commentary segment tables
Q2 FY27 revenue < $91B (miss vs. own guide) or Q3 FY27 revenue guide < $98B — first evidence the beat-and-raise cadence is breaking
checkable at: Q2 FY27 8-K/press release
Non-GAAP gross margin < 73.5% or GAAP opex growth > 15% q/q for two consecutive quarters (memory/input-cost pressure or ramp inefficiency)
checkable at: Q3 FY27 CFO commentary and 10-Q
Inventory plus supply commitments rising while revenue growth decelerates below 10% q/q, with DSO > 60 days (channel or AI-cloud customer financing strain)
checkable at: Q3 FY27 10-Q balance sheet and CFO commentary
What must be true: Hyperscale and sovereign AI-factory capex keeps compounding through the $1T computing inflection NVIDIA laid out at GTC; Blackwell Ultra→Vera Rubin transitions execute on annual cadence without margin-destroying ramp costs; secured supply ($119B commitments) converts to shipped systems; China DC compute stays a pure option (zero in guides); and the customer base keeps diversifying so that receivables, vendor-financing and circular-investment risk stay contained while ~75% gross margins and >45% FCF margins persist.
NVDA reports Q2 FY27 against a $91.0B ±2% guide that embeds zero China data-center compute. The pattern is well-established: the last two prints beat guidance by ~$3.2–3.6B (Q1: $81.6B vs. $78B guide), Blackwell Ultra is fully ramped, networking is compounding (+199% y/y), and management says supply is secured beyond the next several quarters. We model $95.0B revenue (+16% q/q, +103% y/y), 75.0% gross margin at guide, non-GAAP EPS ~$2.18, and a Q3 guide of ~$105B. Three factors decide the reaction. First, the Q3 guide: with Vera Rubin launching into 2H, anything ≥$105B validates the FY28 trajectory; <$100B breaks the cadence narrative. Second, gross margin against elevated memory costs — a hold at 75% ±50bp keeps the earnings algorithm intact; slippage below 74% would signal ramp friction. Third, cash flow optics: management pre-flagged a substantial cash-tax catch-up and DSO normalization, so CFO (~$37B vs. $50B in Q1) will look weak — the market should look through it, but bears will seize on receivables and the widening circle of strategic investments ($18.6B of non-marketable purchases last quarter, $30B cloud commitments). Watch the new Hyperscale vs. ACIE split for diversification evidence and any commentary on China re-entry, which remains free upside not in guidance. GAAP EPS will again be distorted by equity-security marks; non-GAAP (now including SBC) is the clean read.
Anchor: Q1 FY27 printed $81,615M revenue, 74.9% GAAP GM, $53,536M operating income, GAAP EPS $2.39, non-GAAP EPS $1.87, CFO $50,344M; Q2 guide is $91.0B ±2%, GM 74.9%/75.0%, GAAP opex $8.5B, FY tax 16–18%. NVDA has beaten its guide by ~4.5–5% in consecutive quarters ($78B→$81.6B; $65B→$68.1B), with supply secured and GB300/networking ramping, so I model a ~$4B beat: revenue $95.0B. GM at guide (75.0%) → gross profit $71,250M; opex slightly above guide ($8,550M GAAP) → operating income $62,700M. OI&E: interest income flat ($540M), interest expense −$105M, and +$4.0B of equity-security marks (marketable equity $30.2B plus $43.4B non-marketable book after Q1's $18.6B investments; May–July AI-asset marks likely positive but far below Q1's $15.9B). Tax 16.5% → GAAP NI $56,058M, EPS $2.30 on 24,350M shares. Non-GAAP strips equity gains (−$4,000M), adds back acquisition costs (+$300M) and other (+$25M) with +$700M tax impact → NGNI $53,083M, EPS $2.18. Cash flow: management flagged a substantial Q2 cash-tax catch-up and DSO normalization off an abnormal 45 days; I embed ~$19.5B of working-capital/tax drag → CFO $36,608M, capex −$2,200M, FCF $34,408M. Investing continues heavy strategic purchases (−$13.8B other investing); financing carries the new $0.25 dividend (−$6,075M), −$15B buybacks, −$1.9B other → cash falls $2,367M to $10,870M. Balance sheet grows to $298B on retained earnings and investment marks; equity $231B, liabilities $67B. Path: Q3 guide ~$105B, print ~$108B; Q4 ~$120B as Rubin ships; FY27 revenue ~$404.6B, non-GAAP EPS ~$9.25, FCF ~$193B. FY28 ~$545B on Rubin/Rubin Ultra cadence and ~$600B+ hyperscaler capex; growth decelerates to ~21% (FY29 ~$660B) and ~12% (FY30 ~$740B) as the AI build-out matures, with GM easing toward 72.5–74% and cash increasingly recycled into buybacks, dividends, and strategic investments. Distributions are widened at longer horizons to reflect AI-capex cycle risk in both directions.
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T100113322564Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T100113322564Z. Nothing here is investment advice.