PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY2027 Revenue
81,615
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000014
Q2 FY2027 Revenue Outlook
91,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000018
Q2 FY2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin Outlook
75.0
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000019
Q2 FY2027 GAAP Operating Expenses Outlook
8,500
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000020
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 93,500 | +14.6% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,375 | +14.3% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 70,125 | +14.7% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 7,050 | +11.5% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,450 | +11.5% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,500 | +11.5% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 61,625 | +15.1% |
| Interest income | 540 | 550 | +1.9% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -100 | -2.0% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 50 | -99.7% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 500 | -96.9% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 62,125 | -11.1% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 10,250 | -11.5% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 51,875 | -11.1% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,350 | -0.2% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.13 | -10.9% |
Bridge: net income 51,875 + acquisition_related_cogs 50 + acquisition_related_opex 200 + tax_effect -40 = non-GAAP net income 52,085 ÷ 24,350M shares = 2.14 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 51,875 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,100 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | 1,200 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,050 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | 0 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -4,225 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 52,000 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,000 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -26,000 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -28,000 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -20,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,087 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -1,500 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -27,587 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | -3,587 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 9,650 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 277,350 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 287,000 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 66,000 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 221,000 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 102,000 | 98,000–106,000 | 2.35 | 75.0% | 66.0% | -2,200 | 53,800 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 111,000 | 106,000–116,000 | 2.58 | 75.0% | 66.2% | -2,400 | 58,600 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 119,000 | 113,000–125,000 | 2.78 | 75.0% | 66.2% | -2,600 | 62,400 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 127,000 | 120,000–134,000 | 2.97 | 75.0% | 66.2% | -2,800 | 67,200 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 388,115 | 375,000–400,000 | 8.94 | 8.60–9.25 | -8,357 | 210,987 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 515,000 | 480,000–550,000 | 12.10 | 11.20–13.00 | -12,000 | 273,000 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 610,000 | 560,000–660,000 | 14.40 | 13.10–15.70 | -15,000 | 325,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 710,000 | 640,000–780,000 | 16.80 | 15.00–18.50 | -18,000 | 377,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Supply-related commitments of $119.0 billion to secure manufacturing and packaging capacity beyond the next several quarters.
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000031 · horizon fy0 through fy1
flows into: income_statement.cost_of_revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_27.gross_profit, quarterly_path.fq4_27.gross_profit, horizons.fy0.gross_profit, horizons.fy1.gross_profit
Multi-year cloud service commitments of $30.0 billion to support expanding research and development efforts.
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000032 · horizon fy0 through fy2
flows into: income_statement.research_development, income_statement.total_operating_expenses, quarterly_path.fq3_27.operating_income, horizons.fy0.operating_income, horizons.fy1.operating_income
Capital return commitments including an expanded $80.0 billion share repurchase authorization and higher quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000009 · horizon fy0 through fy1
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.cff, horizons.fy0.cff, horizons.fy1.cff
Data Center sequential revenue growth exceeding 15% in Q3 FY27 accompanied by non-GAAP gross margins sustained at or above 75.0%
checkable at: Q3 FY2027 Form 10-Q (ending October 2026)
Hyperscale and ACIE enterprise segment revenue growing >20% sequentially with Spectrum-X and InfiniBand networking exceeding $18B quarterly
checkable at: Q4 FY2027 Form 10-K (ending January 2027)
Non-GAAP gross margin dipping below 73.5% indicating packaging yield bottlenecks or pricing pressure on Blackwell NVL systems
checkable at: Q3 FY2027 Form 10-Q (ending October 2026)
Operating cash flow conversion dropping below 85% of net income excluding discrete tax timing items over two consecutive quarters
checkable at: Q4 FY2027 Form 10-K (ending January 2027)
What must be true: Blackwell 300 series and NVL rack-scale systems must maintain strong production ramp and customer delivery schedules without severe packaging or liquid cooling supply bottlenecks, while hyperscale and sovereign AI cluster demand continues unabated into next-generation Vera Rubin architectures.
NVIDIA heads into its Q2 FY27 print with exceptional Blackwell momentum and expanding enterprise AI adoption. Management guided Q2 revenue to $91.0B +/- 2% with ~75.0% non-GAAP gross margin. We forecast revenue to outperform at $93.5B and adjusted EPS of $2.14, driven by accelerated Blackwell Ultra/300 deployments and strong networking attach rates. Key reaction drivers include Q3 FY27 guidance, Vera Rubin roadmap updates, and gross margin trajectory.
Our forecast anchors on the Q1 FY27 print and management guidance of $91.0B revenue and 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin. We project a modest revenue beat to $93.5B driven by accelerated Blackwell system deployments and networking demand, with operating expenses aligned to the guided $8.5B GAAP / $8.3B non-GAAP level. Cash flow incorporates higher cash tax disbursements indicated in prior commentary, and the forward path models continued multi-year data center demand expansion through Vera Rubin architectures.
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T111836684377Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T111836684377Z. Nothing here is investment advice.