PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY2027 revenue
81,615
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000014
Q1 FY2027 Data Center revenue
75,246
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000008
Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow
50,344
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000069
Q1 FY2027 total assets
259,474
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000067
Q2 FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint
91,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000018
Q2 FY2027 GAAP gross-margin guidance
74.9
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000019
Q2 FY2027 GAAP operating-expense guidance
8,500
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000020
Supply-related commitments at April 26, 2026
119,000
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000218
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 93,000 | +13.9% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,157 | +13.2% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 69,843 | +14.2% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 7,050 | +11.5% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,450 | +11.5% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,500 | +11.5% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 61,343 | +14.6% |
| Interest income | 540 | 550 | +1.9% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -110 | +7.8% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 8,000 | -49.8% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 8,440 | -48.4% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 69,783 | -0.2% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 11,724 | +1.2% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 58,059 | -0.4% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,250 | -0.6% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.2% |
Bridge: net income 58,059 + equity_security_gains_and_other_exclusions_after_tax -7,500 + acquisition_related_and_other_costs_after_tax 300 = non-GAAP net income 50,859 ÷ 24,250M shares = 2.10 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 58,059 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,200 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | -500 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,100 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | -8,000 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -12,000 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 40,859 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,500 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -12,000 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -14,500 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -25,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,050 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -2,000 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -33,050 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | -6,691 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 6,546 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 285,454 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 292,000 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 70,000 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 222,000 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 100,000 | 95,000–105,000 | 2.25 | 75.0% | 66.0% | -2,800 | 55,200 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 110,000 | 103,000–117,000 | 2.45 | 75.0% | 66.1% | -3,000 | 62,000 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 118,000 | 109,000–127,000 | 2.63 | 75.0% | 65.7% | -3,200 | 63,800 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 126,000 | 115,000–137,000 | 2.79 | 75.0% | 65.5% | -3,500 | 68,500 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 384,615 | 365,000–402,000 | 8.67 | 8.05–9.28 | -11,000 | 209,000 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 520,000 | 465,000–575,000 | 11.60 | 10.10–13.10 | -14,500 | 275,500 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 650,000 | 550,000–755,000 | 14.20 | 11.70–17.10 | -19,000 | 336,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 780,000 | 630,000–950,000 | 16.60 | 13.00–20.80 | -24,000 | 391,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Manufacturing, supply and capacity commitments were $119 billion, including $95 billion payable during the remainder of fiscal 2027, reflecting data-center-scale production and longer ordering horizons.
0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000218 · horizon FY2027 through FY2031
flows into: quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue, cash_flow.other_operating
Multi-year cloud-service commitments were $30 billion and are primarily intended to support research and development.
0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000219 · horizon FY2027 through FY2032 and thereafter
flows into: income_statement.research_development, horizons.fy1.operating_income, horizons.fy2.operating_income
NVIDIA expects Rubin to start shipping in the second half of fiscal 2027.
0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000306 · horizon Second half of FY2027
flows into: quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_27.gross_profit
The company expects to commence leases carrying $32.4 billion of future obligations, primarily for R&D data centers.
0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000277 · horizon FY2027 through FY2033
flows into: horizons.fy1.capex, horizons.fy2.capex, horizons.fy3.capex, horizons.fy3.operating_income
Q2 FY2027 revenue of at least $95 billion with GAAP gross margin at or above 75.0% and Q3 revenue guidance midpoint of at least $101 billion.
checkable at: Q2 FY2027 earnings release and Form 10-Q
Rubin-driven quarterly revenue reaches at least $110 billion while gross margin remains at or above 74.5%.
checkable at: Q4 FY2027 earnings release and Form 10-K
FY2028 operating cash flow reaches at least $300 billion with free cash flow of at least $280 billion.
checkable at: FY2028 Form 10-K
Q2 FY2027 revenue below $88.5 billion or GAAP gross margin below 74.0%.
checkable at: Q2 FY2027 earnings release and Form 10-Q
Q3 FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint below $95 billion or sequential Data Center revenue growth below 5%.
checkable at: Q2 FY2027 earnings release and subsequent Q3 Form 10-Q
Any FY2028 quarter reports free cash flow below $50 billion while revenue exceeds $110 billion, indicating a material deterioration in cash conversion.
checkable at: Each FY2028 earnings release and Form 10-Q
What must be true: AI infrastructure spending must remain supply- and deployment-constrained rather than demand-constrained; Blackwell 300 and networking must sustain the near-term ramp, Rubin must ship during the second half of FY2027 without a material transition pause, and gross margin must remain near 75% despite increasingly complex systems, tariffs and substantial supply commitments.
We forecast Q2 FY2027 revenue of $93.0 billion, 2.2% above NVIDIA's $91.0 billion outlook, with GAAP gross margin of 75.1% and adjusted EPS of $2.10. The principal upside driver is continued Blackwell 300 system volume, augmented by networking demand after Q1 networking revenue grew substantially faster than compute. We assume no material China Data Center compute revenue, consistent with the company's outlook. The critical debate is less Q2 demand than conversion: customer power and data-center availability, system integration, and supply-chain execution determine how much of the substantial backlog can ship. Cash conversion should be temporarily weaker because Q2 contains two scheduled federal tax payments, while the new $0.25 quarterly dividend materially increases financing outflows. The reaction should be decided primarily by Q3 guidance and evidence that the Rubin transition will expand rather than interrupt the revenue trajectory. Our expected Q3 guidance is $98-$102 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.18-$2.32. A midpoint above $101 billion with gross margin near 75% would indicate continuing upside; guidance below $95 billion or transition-related margin pressure would challenge the acceleration thesis.
The latest reported quarter established an $81.615 billion revenue base, including $75.246 billion from Data Center, with 74.9% GAAP gross margin. The attached native visual pack was inspected directly, including the GTC page presenting Blackwell full production, an annual architecture rhythm, Rubin, photonics and the broader AI-infrastructure buildout. The forecast assumes the Q1 Blackwell 300 and networking ramp continues, producing approximately 14% sequential revenue growth versus management's 11.5% outlook. Gross margin is held near guidance because higher scale and networking mix offset system complexity and inventory provisions. Adjusted earnings remove estimated equity-security gains and acquisition-related items under NVIDIA's revised non-GAAP definition, which no longer excludes stock compensation. Cash flow is deliberately below the earnings run rate because NVIDIA disclosed that Q2 includes two tax payments; working capital also rises with the shipment ramp. The balance sheet incorporates lower cash from taxes, repurchases, the enlarged dividend and strategic investment spending, while retained earnings increase total equity. Longer-term forecasts assume Rubin ships in the second half of FY2027, annual product cadence persists, and AI infrastructure demand broadens beyond hyperscalers, with progressively slower growth as the revenue base expands.
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T113646479478Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T113646479478Z. Nothing here is investment advice.