PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY27 revenue
81,615
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000053
Q1 FY27 cash and cash equivalents
13,237
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000069
Q1 FY27 cash from operations
50,344
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000084
Q2 FY27 revenue guidance midpoint
91,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000038
Q1 FY27 non-GAAP diluted EPS
1.87
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000005
Q1 FY27 Data Center revenue
75,246
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000008
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 93,500 | +14.6% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,468 | +14.7% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 70,032 | +14.5% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 7,015 | +11.0% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,435 | +10.4% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,450 | +10.9% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 61,582 | +15.0% |
| Interest income | 540 | 560 | +3.7% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -100 | -2.0% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 1,000 | -93.7% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 1,460 | -91.1% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 63,042 | -9.8% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 10,311 | -11.0% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 52,731 | -9.6% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,300 | -0.4% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.17 | -9.2% |
Bridge: net income 52,731 + acquisition_related_and_other_costs 280 + equity_securities_gains_exclusion -1,000 + tax_impact_of_adjustments 234 = non-GAAP net income 52,245 ÷ 24,300M shares = 2.15 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 52,731 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,100 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | -1,500 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,100 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | -1,000 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -7,500 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 45,931 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,200 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -12,000 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -14,200 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -20,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,055 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -2,000 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -28,055 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | 3,676 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 16,913 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 268,887 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 285,800 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 62,000 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 223,800 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 104,500 | 94,000–115,000 | 2.38 | 74.6% | 65.5% | -2,600 | 49,400 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 118,000 | 105,000–133,000 | 2.72 | 74.6% | 65.7% | -3,000 | 56,000 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 124,000 | 108,000–142,000 | 2.85 | 74.5% | 65.3% | -3,300 | 57,700 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 134,000 | 115,000–155,000 | 3.08 | 74.5% | 65.3% | -3,600 | 62,400 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 397,615 | 355,000–445,000 | 9.12 | 8.00–10.40 | -9,557 | 197,718 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 545,000 | 450,000–660,000 | 12.15 | 8.50–15.00 | -15,000 | 255,000 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 670,000 | 520,000–850,000 | 14.50 | 10.00–18.50 | -18,000 | 302,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 780,000 | 580,000–1,020,000 | 16.20 | 11.00–22.00 | -22,000 | 333,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Blackwell in full production; fastest ramp in company history, with 3.6M Blackwell GPUs shipped to the top 4 US CSPs
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A slide (IR 9ebefdde... page 3) and Q1 FY27 CFO commentary · horizon FY27
flows into: income_statement.revenue, headline.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue
Vera Rubin / NVIDIA Photonics as the annual rhythm for the world to build out AI infrastructure; Vera Rubin in full production as of the June 2026 annual meeting
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A page 3; 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders page 13; Q1 FY27 press release Vera Rubin platform announcement · horizon FY28-FY29
flows into: quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue
$1T computing inflection point as data-center capex and NVIDIA DC revenue scale together
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A page 3 · horizon FY27-FY30
flows into: horizons.fy0.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue
AI infrastructure for $500B enterprise IT (new compute, networking, storage, software) and physical AI for a $50T industrial/robotics TAM
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A page 3 · horizon FY28-FY30
flows into: horizons.fy1.revenue, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue
No Data Center compute revenue from China assumed in the Q2 FY27 outlook
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000038 · horizon Q2 FY27
flows into: income_statement.revenue, headline.revenue
Additional $80B share-repurchase authorization and quarterly dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25 per share
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000035 · horizon FY27-FY28
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.cff, quarterly_path.fq3_27.cff, horizons.fy0.cff
$119B manufacturing/supply commitments ($95B payable in the remainder of FY27) plus $30B multi-year cloud-service commitments and $32.4B of data-center leases commencing Q2 FY27-FY33
0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000218 and b0000277 · horizon FY27-FY30
flows into: cash_flow.capex, income_statement.research_development, horizons.fy0.capex, horizons.fy1.capex, balance_sheet.other_assets
Full-year FY27 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates expected between 16% and 18%
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000042 · horizon FY27
flows into: income_statement.income_tax, income_statement.net_income, bridge.non_gaap_net_income
Q2 FY27 revenue at or above $93.0B with GAAP gross margin at or above 74.5%
checkable at: Q2 FY27 8-K earnings release (expected late August 2026)
Q2 FY27 free cash flow (CFO plus capex) at or above $40B even after the flagged cash-tax step-up
checkable at: Q2 FY27 10-Q condensed cash-flow statement
Q3 FY27 Data Center sequential growth remaining positive and Q3 revenue guide midpoint at or above $101B
checkable at: Q2 FY27 8-K outlook section and Q3 FY27 8-K
Q2 FY27 revenue below $89.2B (the company's own -2% guide floor) or GAAP gross margin below 73.5%
checkable at: Q2 FY27 8-K earnings release
Q3 or Q4 FY27 Data Center revenue declining sequentially, or FY27 full-year revenue below $360B
checkable at: Q3 FY27 8-K, Q4 FY27 8-K, and FY27 10-K
CFO falling below 70% of GAAP net income for two consecutive quarters, indicating working-capital or cash-tax absorption that breaks the FCF engine
checkable at: Q2 FY27 and Q3 FY27 10-Q cash-flow statements
What must be true: Blackwell remains supply-unconstrained enough to print a mid-teens sequential revenue step in Q2 without China DC compute; networking (NVLink/Spectrum-X) and ACIE continue to diversify mix so gross margin holds near 75%; Vera Rubin ramps in 2H FY27/FY28 on the advertised annual cadence; hyperscaler and ACIE capex does not digest; and NVIDIA converts 70%+ of net income into CFO after the Q2 cash-tax bulge so the $80B buyback and $0.25 dividend are funded from operations rather than the securities portfolio.
NVIDIA reports Q2 FY27 against a $91B +/- 2% guide that already assumes ~12% sequential growth and zero China data-center compute. Q1 printed $81.6B, 20% q/q, 74.9% GAAP GM, $50.3B CFO, and a $16B equity-mark windfall that will not repeat. The tape will turn on three items. First, whether Blackwell plus NVLink/Spectrum-X again outrun the 2% band: Q1 networking was +35% q/q and ACIE +31%, and the GTC pack shows 3.6M Blackwell GPUs already into the top four CSPs. We model $93.5B and $2.15 non-GAAP EPS (SBC now in non-GAAP). Second, cash-tax quality: $10.6B of taxes payable and a flagged Q2 federal/state cash-tax step-up mean FCF will lag the Q1 $48.6B print even if operations are fine. Third, the Q3 guide and any Rubin timing; a sub-$100B midpoint or GM below 74% would be the first digestion signal. The new $0.25 dividend (~$6.1B/qtr) and $80B buyback authorization are supportive but secondary to the AI-factory run-rate.
Q1 FY27 ($81,615M revenue, 74.9% GAAP GM, $53,536M operating income, $58,321M GAAP NI / $45,548M non-GAAP NI, $50,344M CFO, $13,237M cash) is the base; company Q2 guide is $91.0B +/- 2%, 74.9%/75.0% GM, ~$8.5B/$8.3B opex, 16-18% FY tax, no China DC compute. NVDA beat the Q1 $78B guide by ~4.6%; I assume a smaller 2.7% beat to $93.5B because the base is larger, China stays zero, and gaming/PC remains memory-constrained, while Blackwell full production, $119B of secured supply, and still-ramping networking/ACIE support another double-digit sequential step. GAAP GM held at the 74.9% guide; opex $8,450M slightly under the $8.5B guide, matching the Q1 under-spend pattern. Other income is modeled at only $1.0B versus Q1’s $15.9B equity marks, so GAAP EPS falls to $2.17 while non-GAAP EPS (SBC included, equity marks and acquisition costs excluded) rises 15% to $2.15 with revenue. Q2 CFO is cut to $45.9B by the flagged cash-tax payment (deferred tax -$1.5B, other operating -$7.5B) even as operations scale; FCF $43.7B. Dividend cash jumps to $6,055M on the $0.25 rate; buybacks stay ~$20B against the new $80B authorization. Path assumes ~11-13% sequential through the 14-week Q4 FY27 (53-week year) as Rubin begins to ship, then high-single-digit sequential in FY28, taking FY27 to $398B and FY28 to $545B, with GM compressing only slowly (75%→71%) as systems/networking mix and competition rise. p10/p90 span roughly +/-6-8% on the quarter to cover China optionality, supply slips, and a demand air-pocket without pretending a 20% miss is a 10th-percentile event given locked-in commitments.
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T113053411865Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T113053411865Z. Nothing here is investment advice.