PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY27 (ended Apr 26, 2026) revenue, as filed in 10-Q
81,615
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000053
Q1 FY27 net cash provided by operating activities, as filed in 10-Q
50,344
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000084
Q1 FY27 total assets at Apr 26, 2026, as filed in 10-Q
259,474
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000069
Q1 FY27 non-GAAP net income ($45,548M; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.87)
45,548
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000015
Q2 FY27 guidance: revenue expected $91.0 billion plus or minus 2%, no China Data Center compute revenue assumed
91
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000018
Q2 FY27 guidance: GAAP operating expenses approximately $8.5 billion (non-GAAP $8.3 billion)
8.5
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000020
FY2027 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate guidance, low end of 16.0%-18.0% range
16.0
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000021
Q1 FY27 net cash used in financing activities, $(21,283)M as parenthesized in filing (buybacks $(19,312)M, dividends $(243)M); change in cash +$2,632M; ending cash $13,237M
21,283
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000071
Capital return: $80.0 billion additional share repurchase authorization; quarterly dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25 per share
80
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000004
Q1 FY27 weighted average diluted shares (millions), as filed in 10-Q
24,391
0001045810-26-000052 · 0001045810-26-000052:nvda-20260426.htm:b0000053
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 92,500 | +13.3% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,125 | +13.0% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 69,375 | +13.4% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 6,950 | +10.0% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,450 | +11.5% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,400 | +10.2% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 60,975 | +13.9% |
| Interest income | 540 | 560 | +3.7% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -100 | -2.0% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 2,500 | -84.3% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 2,960 | -81.9% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 63,935 | -8.5% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 10,741 | -7.3% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 53,194 | -8.8% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,250 | -0.6% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.19 | -8.4% |
Bridge: net income 53,194 + acquisition_related_and_other_costs 250 + gains_losses_from_equity_securities_net -2,500 + other_non_gaap_items 25 + income_tax_impact_of_adjustments 400 = non-GAAP net income 51,369 ÷ 24,250M shares = 2.12 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 53,194 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,100 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | 800 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,100 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | -2,500 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -8,000 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 46,694 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,200 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -12,000 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -14,200 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -20,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,050 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -1,800 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -27,850 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | 4,644 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 17,881 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 267,137 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 285,018 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 59,800 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 225,218 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 100,000 | 95,000–105,000 | 2.30 | 74.8% | 66.0% | -2,500 | 52,710 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 106,000 | 100,000–112,000 | 2.44 | 74.5% | 65.8% | -2,800 | 56,664 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 112,000 | 105,000–119,000 | 2.59 | 74.5% | 65.9% | -3,000 | 59,150 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 118,000 | 110,000–126,000 | 2.74 | 74.3% | 65.8% | -3,200 | 61,840 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 380,115 | 368,000–392,000 | 8.69 | 8.35–9.05 | -9,257 | 202,455 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 484,000 | 450,000–520,000 | 11.31 | 10.30–12.40 | -14,000 | 256,000 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 570,000 | 500,000–645,000 | 13.54 | 11.80–15.40 | -16,000 | 304,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 655,000 | 540,000–770,000 | 15.74 | 13.20–18.30 | -18,000 | 350,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Vera Rubin NVL144 platform ships in second half of calendar 2026 (annual product rhythm: Blackwell -> Rubin -> Rubin Ultra 2H27 -> Feynman 2028), 3.3x GB300 NVL72 inference performance
IR-OBSERVED GTC deck, ir:e6ee627f0c8652f426d5140b1e3fea6919560fa0a56af1bcdb0232c034125156 page-34/35; Q1 FY27 PR Vera Rubin announcement (0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000025) · horizon fq3_27 through fy3
flows into: quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, quarterly_path.fq4_27.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
$80.0 billion additional share repurchase authorization (no expiration) on top of $38.5B remaining, and quarterly dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25 per share, first paid June 26, 2026
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000004 and b0000009 · horizon Q2 FY27 onward
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.dividends, quarterly_path.fq3_27.cff, horizons.fy0.cff
Strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems; Aug 17, 2026 SB Energy PORTS campus partnership securing ~4.25GW IT load with residual-value guaranties capped at $105B (ready-for-service expected beginning 2028) plus $1.5B SB Energy investment
0001045810-25-000228:q3fy26pr.htm:b0000026; 0001045810-26-000069:nvda-20260817.htm:b0000033 · horizon fy1-fy3
flows into: horizons.fy1.cfi, horizons.fy2.revenue, horizons.fy3.revenue
Total supply-related commitments of $119.0 billion and multi-year cloud service commitments of $30.0 billion to secure inventory and capacity beyond the next several quarters
0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27cfocommentary.htm:b0000031 and b0000032 · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: cash_flow.other_operating, horizons.fy0.cfo, horizons.fy1.total_assets
Blackwell in full production, fastest ramp in company history; top-4 US CSPs deploying 3.6M Blackwell GPUs in 2025 vs 1.3M Hopper in 2024; computing at $1T inflection point
IR-OBSERVED GTC Financial Analyst Q&A, sha256 9ebefdde0a0460f186de2591ce6bae4802ead3bd3519ab98844712804c9a5924 page 3 (visually inspected) · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, horizons.fy0.revenue
Data Center revenue growth re-accelerates above ~10% q/q with both Hyperscale and ACIE sub-markets growing sequentially
checkable at: Q2 FY27 earnings 8-K/EX-99.1 (late Aug 2026) and each subsequent quarterly 8-K
Non-GAAP gross margin held at or above 75.0% during the Rubin ramp (no yield-driven dilution)
checkable at: Q3 FY27 10-Q (Nov 2026)
Quarterly free cash flow (CFO less capex) sustained at or above $45B while capex stays below $3B
checkable at: Q2 FY27 10-Q (Aug/Sep 2026)
Inventory growth slows to low single digits q/q while revenue keeps growing, confirming $119B supply commitments convert to revenue not stockpiles
checkable at: Q3 FY27 10-Q (Nov 2026)
Data Center revenue q/q growth falls below 5% absent a product-transition quarter
checkable at: Any quarterly 8-K/10-Q beginning Q3 FY27 (Nov 2026)
Non-GAAP gross margin below 72% for two consecutive quarters
checkable at: Q3 FY27 and Q4 FY27 10-Qs
Operating cash flow below 60% of GAAP net income for two consecutive quarters (receivables/inventory air-pocket signal)
checkable at: Q3 FY27 10-Q onward
Realized/unrealized losses on strategic equity investments exceeding $5B in a quarter in other income, or impairment of OpenAI-linked commitments
checkable at: Any 10-Q/10-K; guaranty exposure detailed in Q2 FY27 10-Q exhibits
Full-year tax-rate guidance raised above 18% or new export-license charges against Data Center inventory
checkable at: Any quarterly 8-K outlook section
What must be true: Hyperscaler and AI-cloud capex stays on a multi-year ramp (top-4 CSP GPU deployments nearly tripling year over year), Vera Rubin ramps on schedule in 2H26 without margin-dilutive yield problems, China Data Center compute revenue remains excluded with no incremental export-control shock to the $119B supply chain, and NVDA's strategic-investment portfolio (OpenAI, SB Energy, Intel) funds demand rather than impairments. Under those conditions revenue compounds from $81.6B in Q1 FY27 to ~$118B/qtr by mid-FY28 at ~74-75% gross margin, and free cash flow funds ~$110B+/yr of buybacks and the new $0.25 dividend.
NVDA reports Q2 FY27 (July quarter) after a record Q1: $81.6B revenue (+20% q/q), 74.9% GAAP gross margin, and a new Data Center/Edge platform split with Hyperscale at ~50% of DC revenue. The setup: guidance is $91.0B +/-2% with zero China compute assumed, so the print hinges on (1) Blackwell 300 and networking momentum inside ACIE (+31% q/q in Q1) versus law-of-large-numbers deceleration, (2) gross margin holding ~75% as Vera Rubin (2H26) approaches ramp, and (3) cash taxes - management flagged a substantial Q2 cash-tax payment that will mask otherwise strong conversion. Watch the first full quarter of the $0.25 dividend (~$6B) and buyback pace against the fresh $80B authorization, plus any color on Rubin qualification and the OpenAI/SB Energy 4.25GW commitment. The reaction will be decided less by the beat size - NVDA's post-guide beat cadence is well understood - than by the Q3 guide: anything at or above ~$100B with >=75% non-GAAP GM keeps the ramp narrative intact; a sub-$96B guide or margin slippage would feed the peak-capex debate.
Anchors are the filed Q1 FY27 results (10-Q 0001045810-26-000052; 8-K exhibits 0001045810-26-000051): revenue $81,615M, GAAP NI $58,321M (inflated by $15.9B equity gains), non-GAAP NI $45,548M, CFO $50,344M, ending cash $13,237M, total assets $259,474M. Guidance: $91.0B +/-2% revenue, 74.9%/75.0% GM, ~$8.5B/$8.3B opex, 16-18% FY27 tax rate. My Q2 p50 revenue of $92.5B sits +1.6% above the guide midpoint, inside NVDA's historical 1-4% beat cadence, supported by ACIE diversification (+31% q/q), networking (+35% q/q), and the CSP deployment ramp shown in the inspected GTC materials; China compute stays at zero per guidance, leaving upside tail. GM held at 75.0% (Blackwell majority of revenue, no H20-type charge). Opex $8.4B, just under guide per NVDA's typical opex discipline. GAAP other income modeled at +$2.5B equity gains - far below Q1's $15.9B - making GAAP EPS ($2.19) converge toward non-GAAP ($2.12); the bridge removes equity gains and ~$250M acquisition-related costs per NVDA's new non-GAAP definition that now includes SBC. Cash flow reflects the flagged Q2 cash-tax surge and DSO normalization (other_operating -$8B), first $0.25 dividend (~$6.05B paid June 26), sustained ~$20B buybacks, and continued strategic investing ($12B net). The quarterly path ramps revenue to ~$118B by mid-FY28 on the Rubin NVL144 2H26 launch and Rubin Ultra 2H27, with GM easing ~20-70bps on new-platform mix; FY27 sums to $380B revenue and $8.69 adjusted EPS, decelerating to ~15-18% growth by FY29-30 as the $1T computing-inflection thesis matures. Balance sheet rolls forward cleanly: cash builds to ~$17.9B at Q2-end, equity compounds through retained earnings net of ~$26B/quarter of capital return.
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T103550196884Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T103550196884Z. Nothing here is investment advice.