PRICEDIN.MARKETS · MODEL DETAIL · SEALED AUG 26, 2026, BEFORE THE PRINT
Fiscal 2027 Q2 (quarter ended July 26, 2026), reports August 26 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific; results unreleased at the cutoff 2026-08-26T09:50:00Z. Three statements, a two-year quarterly path, and a thesis with falsifiable triggers — every identity re-added at intake, the balance sheet rolled from the model's own cash flow.
Each cites its filing; every anchor value was verified against the cited source at intake.
Q1 FY27 Revenue (record $81.6B)
81,615
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Q1 FY27 Net income (GAAP)
58,321
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000065
Q1 FY27 Cash and cash equivalents
13,237
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000067
Q2 FY27 Revenue outlook $91.0B +/-2%
91,000
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000018
Q2 FY27 GAAP gross margin outlook 74.9% +/-50bp
74.9
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Q2 FY27 GAAP opex outlook $8.5B
8,500
0001045810-26-000051 · 0001045810-26-000051:q1fy27pr.htm:b0000020
Prior quarter as filed · forecast · change. ✓ = identity enforced at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81,615 | 92,500 | +13.3% |
| Cost of revenue | 20,458 | 23,217 | +13.5% |
| Gross profit ✓ | 61,157 | 69,283 | +13.3% |
| Research and development | 6,321 | 7,050 | +11.5% |
| Sales, general and administrative | 1,300 | 1,450 | +11.5% |
| Total operating expenses ✓ | 7,621 | 8,500 | +11.5% |
| Operating income ✓ | 53,536 | 60,783 | +13.5% |
| Interest income | 540 | 560 | +3.7% |
| Interest expense | -102 | -110 | +7.8% |
| Other income (expense), net | 15,929 | 250 | -98.4% |
| Total other income, net ✓ | 16,367 | 700 | -95.7% |
| Income before income tax ✓ | 69,903 | 61,483 | -12.0% |
| Income tax expense | 11,582 | 10,329 | -10.8% |
| Net income ✓ | 58,321 | 51,154 | -12.3% |
| Weighted average diluted shares (millions) | 24,391 | 24,280 | -0.5% |
| Diluted earnings per share (GAAP) ✓ | 2.39 | 2.11 | -11.7% |
Bridge: net income 51,154 + acquisition_related_and_other_costs_net_of_tax 260 + equity_securities_gains_loss_exclusion_net_of_tax -190 = non-GAAP net income 51,224 ÷ 24,280M shares = 2.11 adjusted EPS.
As-reported sign conventions; free cash flow = CFO + capex; ✓ totals re-added at intake.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | 58,321 | 51,154 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | 1,928 | 2,050 |
| Deferred income taxes | 1,584 | 400 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 997 | 1,100 |
| (Gains) losses from equity securities, net | -15,936 | -250 |
| Other non-cash and working-capital items, net (residual) | 3,450 | -2,500 |
| Net cash provided by operating activities ✓ | 50,344 | 51,954 |
| Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets | -1,757 | -2,100 |
| Other investing activities, net (residual) | -24,672 | -18,000 |
| Net cash used in investing activities ✓ | -26,429 | -20,100 |
| Payments related to repurchases of common stock | -19,312 | -16,000 |
| Dividends paid | -243 | -6,070 |
| Other financing activities, net (residual) | -1,728 | -2,000 |
| Net cash used in financing activities ✓ | -21,283 | -24,070 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents ✓ | 2,632 | 7,784 |
End of quarter. Cash rolls from the model's own cash flow; retained earnings roll from net income, dividends, and buybacks.
| Line ($M) | Prior as filed | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,237 | 21,021 |
| All other assets (residual) | 246,237 | 273,979 |
| Total assets ✓ | 259,474 | 295,000 |
| Total liabilities | 64,000 | 68,000 |
| Shareholders' equity ✓ | 195,474 | 227,000 |
Beyond the guided quarter the model is modeling, not retrieving.
| Quarter | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | GM | OM | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal 2027 Q3 (ending late October 2026) | 101,500 | 98,000–104,500 | 2.35 | 75.0% | 66.1% | -2,400 | 54,600 |
| fiscal 2027 Q4 (ending late January 2027) | 108,000 | 103,500–112,500 | 2.51 | 75.0% | 66.2% | -2,600 | 58,400 |
| fiscal 2028 Q1 (ending late April 2027) | 112,000 | 107,000–117,000 | 2.62 | 75.0% | 66.1% | -2,800 | 61,200 |
| fiscal 2028 Q2 (ending late July 2027) | 118,000 | 113,000–123,000 | 2.77 | 75.0% | 66.1% | -3,000 | 65,000 |
| Fiscal year | Rev p50 ($M) | Rev band | Adj EPS p50 | EPS band | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fiscal year 2027 (ending late January 2027) | 383,615 | 378,000–389,000 | 8.85 | 8.40–9.30 | -8,857 | 211,441 |
| fiscal year 2028 (ending late January 2028) | 488,000 | 470,000–506,000 | 11.10 | 10.40–11.80 | -12,000 | 268,000 |
| fiscal year 2029 (ending late January 2029) | 582,000 | 555,000–610,000 | 13.40 | 12.30–14.50 | -15,000 | 320,000 |
| fiscal year 2030 (ending late January 2030) | 670,000 | 635,000–710,000 | 15.50 | 14.00–17.00 | -18,000 | 367,000 |
Every commitment cites a source and names the forecast lines it flows into; every trigger is an observable reported fundamental with its check date. Triggers are re-served to the next run for review.
Blackwell in full production - fastest ramp in company history; Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin on annual rhythm
GTC Financial Analyst Q&A Slides - Blackwell in Full Production / Vera Rubin Annual Rhythm · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: income_statement.revenue, income_statement.cost_of_revenue, income_statement.gross_profit, cash_flow.capex, balance_sheet.other_assets
NVIDIA transitioning to two market platforms Data Center (Hyperscale + ACIE) and Edge Computing for agentic/physical AI
Q1 FY27 press release: transition to new reporting framework · horizon fy0-fy3
flows into: income_statement.revenue, quarterly_path.fq3_27.revenue, horizons.fy1.revenue
$119B supply-related commitments and $30B multi-year cloud commitments + inventory $25.8B strategically secured
Q1 FY27 CFO Commentary: Inventory and supply commitments · horizon fy0-fy1
flows into: cash_flow.other_operating, cash_flow.capex, balance_sheet.total_assets, balance_sheet.total_liabilities
Board approved additional $80B repurchase authorization and dividend increase to $0.25/share
Q1 FY27 press release and CFO Commentary May 18 2026 · horizon fy0
flows into: cash_flow.buybacks, cash_flow.dividends, cash_flow.cff, balance_sheet.total_equity
Non-GAAP no longer excludes SBC; free cash flow defined as operating cash less PPE/intangible purchases + principal payments
Q1 FY27 press release Non-GAAP Measures · horizon fy0-fy3
flows into: bridge.non_gaap_net_income, cash_flow.stock_based_comp
Q2 FY27 revenue >= $94B with GAAP gross margin >=74.5% and Data Center networking > $16B (10-Q segment split)
checkable at: Q2 FY27 10-Q filing (period ended July 26 2026)
Operating cash flow >= $52B and free cash flow >= $49B in Q2 (cash flow statement)
checkable at: Q2 FY27 earnings press release and 10-Q cash flow
Inventory turns improving while supply commitments remain >$115B and DSO normalizes to ~50 days (balance sheet + commentary)
checkable at: Q2 FY27 10-Q balance sheet and CFO commentary
Q2 revenue <= $89B (below guidance low) or sequential Data Center decline >5% vs Q1 $75.2B
checkable at: Q2 FY27 earnings release segment revenue
GAAP gross margin <73.5% (-140bp vs guide) indicating Blackwell yield/cost pressure
checkable at: Q2 FY27 press release income statement
Operating expenses > $8.9B GAAP (+5% above guide $8.5B) without revenue upside, or CFO < $44B due to working capital surge
checkable at: Q2 FY27 income statement and cash flow statement
Free cash flow < $42B and buybacks < $10B (capital return slowdown despite $80B authorization)
checkable at: Q2 FY27 cash flow statement and 10-Q share repurchase footnote
What must be true: Blackwell 300 ramp and Dynamo inference uplift sustain 75% gross margins while Hyperscale stays ~50% of Data Center and ACIE diversification funds the $119B supply commitments without margin degradation; Edge recovers as Blackwell workstations offset PC weakness; large equity-security unrealized gains do not recur, so GAAP and non-GAAP converge and cash taxes normalize after Q2 spike, allowing ~$50B quarterly FCF to fund $16B+ buybacks and $6B dividends.
Setup: NVDA printed record $81.6B (+20% QoQ, +85% YoY) on Blackwell 300 ramp, Data Center $75.2B. Guide for Q2 is $91B +/-2% at 74.9% GAAP margin and $8.5B opex, assuming zero China compute. What matters: (1) Blackwell supply - $119B purchase commitments and $25.8B inventory are pre-built for 2H; beat requires converting that to >$92.5B sales, led by networking ($14.8B record in Q1). (2) Margin - Q1 flat at 74.9% despite mix shift; any gross miss signals yield/discount. (3) Cash - DSO 45 days due to pull-forward collections should normalize, and Q2 bears heavy federal/state tax payments; reaction hinges on CFO/FCF staying ~$50B and buyback pace post $80B authorization. We forecast $92.5B revenue, 74.9% margin, $2.11 non-GAAP EPS and $49.9B FCF, modestly above midpoint.
Anchored on filed Q1: revenue 81,615, net 58,321, cash 13,237, opex 7,621, gross 61,157. Guidance 91B/74.9%/8.5B taken as base. Build assumes Blackwell fastest ramp continues, no China, networking remains growth engine, margins stable, equity gains normalize to $0.25B vs Q1 $15.9B, tax 16.8%, opex guided, DSO normalization and tax spike pressures CFO but still ~52B, capex ~2.1B, investing heavy in non-marketables, financing reflects new $0.25 dividend (~6.07B) and sustained buybacks. Distributions calibrated to 80% hit rate (p10-p90 ~6B revenue, ~0.32 EPS, ~5.5B FCF).
Sealed as snap-1045810-20260826T111920103688Z over corpus manifest 8ea65651… (811 filings, five-year window). Replay: python -m rff.filing.snapshot --replay snap-1045810-20260826T111920103688Z. Nothing here is investment advice.