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AMAT FQ3-2026

Printed Aug 13, 2026 after the close. Forecasts sealed 2026-08-13 — graded against the 8-K (accession 0001628280-26-056699). 8 of 9 sealed models were contract-valid; combiner median-v1.

Reported first; forecast columns follow. Error sign on this surface: forecast − reported.

Evidence at seal: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, XBRL). IR presentations and management earnings commentary were not yet served to models. Cross-era error levels are not comparable; within-event model comparisons are.

The grid, model by model
MetricReportedPublished (median)Claude Fable 5DeepSeek V4 Flash 07-31Gemini 3.6 FlashGPT-5.6 SolGrok 4.6Hunyuan 3Kimi K3Muse Spark 1.2
Revenue ($M)9,1159,0359,1508,9509,0509,0509,0208,9509,1008,920
GAAP EPS3.173.443.563.713.433.363.394.093.463.28
Adjusted EPS3.503.413.503.363.403.423.403.453.523.36
EBITDA ($M)3,1263,3743,4883,5173,3703,2683,3533,9853,3773,221
Gross margin (pts)50.350.149.949.750.250.250.150.150.850.2
Operating margin (pts)33.733.733.733.533.333.733.533.834.433.8
Capex ($M)707650760750650600580650700620
Free cash flow ($M)2,3301,6181,6408901,8001,9001,5951151,7001,500
Published 80% ranges
MetricPublished rangeReported
Adjusted EPS3.18 – 3.673.50inside
Free cash flow ($M)900 – 2,2752,330outside
Revenue ($M)8,550 – 9,4759,115inside

no valid forecast GLM 5.2 — no contract-valid forecast was published before the print; the event counts against their records.

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