Anthropic — sealed pre-print forecasts graded against the as-filed 8-K. Model id: claude-fable-5.
Sign here: error = this model's number − reported, shown as a percent of the reported figure (margins in points). Positive = it was high.
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | −1.46% |
| GAAP EPS | −13.40% |
| Adjusted EPS | −3.28% |
| EBITDA ($M) | −15.97% |
| Gross margin (pts) | −0.4 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | −0.6 pts |
| Capex ($M) | +23.08% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −17.53% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.22 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,300 | 4,120 | 4,900 | 4,996 | outside |
| Revenue ($M) | 16,750 | 17,000 | 17,400 | 17,252 | inside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 17,000–17,200, issued mid 18,100 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 1.20–1.22, issued mid 1.33 (outside its range).
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | +0.38% |
| GAAP EPS | +12.30% |
| Adjusted EPS | +0.00% |
| EBITDA ($M) | +11.58% |
| Gross margin (pts) | −0.4 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | +0.0 pts |
| Capex ($M) | +7.50% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −29.61% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.73 | 3.50 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 700 | 1,640 | 2,450 | 2,330 | inside |
| Revenue ($M) | 8,850 | 9,150 | 9,430 | 9,115 | inside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 9,200–10,200, issued mid 10,250 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 3.55–3.95, issued mid 4.02 (outside its range).