OpenAI — sealed pre-print forecasts graded against the as-filed 8-K. Model id: gpt-5.6-sol.
Sign here: error = this model's number − reported, shown as a percent of the reported figure (margins in points). Positive = it was high.
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | −2.27% |
| GAAP EPS | −13.40% |
| Adjusted EPS | −3.28% |
| EBITDA ($M) | −16.05% |
| Gross margin (pts) | −0.1 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | −0.9 pts |
| Capex ($M) | +28.21% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | +0.08% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.22 | outside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,800 | 5,000 | 6,100 | 4,996 | inside |
| Revenue ($M) | 16,600 | 16,860 | 17,050 | 17,252 | outside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 15,400–15,600, issued mid 18,100 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 1.03–1.05, issued mid 1.33 (outside its range).
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | −0.71% |
| GAAP EPS | +5.97% |
| Adjusted EPS | −2.30% |
| EBITDA ($M) | +4.54% |
| Gross margin (pts) | −0.1 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | −0.0 pts |
| Capex ($M) | −15.13% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −18.45% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 3.18 | 3.42 | 3.62 | 3.50 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,250 | 1,900 | 2,450 | 2,330 | inside |
| Revenue ($M) | 8,550 | 9,050 | 9,500 | 9,115 | inside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 8,900–9,900, issued mid 10,250 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 3.35–3.75, issued mid 4.02 (outside its range).