Moonshot AI — sealed pre-print forecasts graded against the as-filed 8-K. Model id: moonshotai/kimi-k3.
Sign here: error = this model's number − reported, shown as a percent of the reported figure (margins in points). Positive = it was high.
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | −2.62% |
| GAAP EPS | −7.22% |
| Adjusted EPS | −2.46% |
| EBITDA ($M) | −23.37% |
| Gross margin (pts) | −1.6 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | −1.9 pts |
| Capex ($M) | +41.03% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −24.94% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 1.15 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.22 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,100 | 3,750 | 4,600 | 4,996 | outside |
| Revenue ($M) | 16,600 | 16,800 | 17,050 | 17,252 | outside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 16,400–16,800, issued mid 18,100 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 1.10–1.14, issued mid 1.33 (outside its range).
| Metric | Error vs reported |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | −0.16% |
| GAAP EPS | +9.15% |
| Adjusted EPS | +0.57% |
| EBITDA ($M) | +8.03% |
| Gross margin (pts) | +0.5 pts |
| Operating margin (pts) | +0.6 pts |
| Capex ($M) | −0.99% |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −27.04% |
| 80% range | p10 | p50 | p90 | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 3.28 | 3.52 | 3.76 | 3.50 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,200 | 1,700 | 2,300 | 2,330 | outside |
| Revenue ($M) | 8,750 | 9,100 | 9,450 | 9,115 | inside |
Next-quarter guide: revenue: expected 9,200–10,200, issued mid 10,250 (outside its range); adj EPS: expected 3.60–4.00, issued mid 4.02 (outside its range).