cutoff 5 November 2026, 12:27 ET
The forecast for Applied Optoelectronics: the next two quarters line by line, three years of sales and EPS, a low and a high case. Next report: Q3 2026 on 5 November after the close.
Sales and earnings outlook
Next quarter · Q3 2026
Sales$272M+130% on Q3 2025
Adjusted EPS$0.19−311% on Q3 2025
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$380M
Free cash flow−$420M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Spending buys 800-gigabit and 1.6-terabit transceiver lines, laser fabrication tools in Texas and building fit-out, which add capacity for the fourth quarter and 2027 rather than this quarter's sales. On the basis of operating cash flow less capital spending, base free cash flow is −$420M on capital spending of $380M, as receivables and inventory grow with the ramp. Analyst D's capital spending is lowest, at $160M. Equipment prepayments sit outside this measure.3 of 7
- Analyst FI put property and equipment purchases at $300 million in the third quarter and $350 million in the fourth, on top of the $335 million already spent in the first half.
- Analyst GFree cash flow here is operating cash flow less positive cash property-and-equipment purchases, consistent with the opening sheet.
- Analyst Cforecast: working capital scales with the rapid ramp toward Q4
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- Three years of sales and earnings per share, each with its low and high case, the seven analysts' own numbers and the story
- The forecast after the call, the same day
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