experimental vintage — single-model run (fable, prompt postcall-v3); the slate re-run supersedes this page when it lands · transcript 9a076ba422bced84-whisper-llm-v1 · response b1d8e27600e19cd7…
| ✓8-K results, 2026-08-13 | SEC filing · byte-verified · print + new guide |
| ✓Earnings call, 2026-08-13 | self-transcribed webcast replay · lower trust class, every citation checked against it |
| ◷10-Q | not yet filed · this page revises again when it lands |
| metric | our number | company guide | ||||||
| Revenue $M | 10,350 | 10,250 ± 500 | 9,850 10,800 was 9,350 pre-earnings — raised +1,000 on the print, guide, and call | |||||
| Adjusted EPS | 4.10 | 4.02 ± 0.20 | 4 4 was 3.53 pre-earnings — raised +0.57 | |||||
| Free cash flow $M | 2,150 | not guided | 1,500 2,800 | |||||
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| accept | FQ3 delivered the highest quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in company history with record revenue and margins · turn 3 | The 8-K corroborates it directly: $9,115M revenue (+15% seq), 50.3% GM, 33.7% OM, $3.50 adj EPS all reconcile with the transcript figures. |
| amplify | The FQ4 guide of $10.25B / $4.02 represents the realistic outlook · turn 4 | The one graded event in the record shows the company beating its own midpoint on both lines; in a demand-constrained-by-supply regime the guide behaves as a floor, so my p50 sits modestly above mid. |
| discount | Eight-quarter rolling forecasts and visibility to 2030 give high confidence 2027 is another strong growth year · turn 3 | Visibility statements at cyclical peaks are classic interested-party testimony — forecasts and even POs get cancelled (they themselves cite cancellation charges), and semicap base rates say demand surges of this magnitude mean-revert; I underwrite FY27 growth well below the exit-rate extrapolation the guide implies. |
| accept | Semi-systems calendar-2026 growth is now greater than the >30% flagged last quarter, and AMAT will outgrow the market · turn 8 | The reported Q3 (+27% y/y systems) and the FQ4 systems guide of ~$7.9B (+62% y/y) already arithmetically deliver well over 30% calendar growth, so the claim is corroborated by numbers, not just talk. |
| discount | Gross margins will continue to expand from here · turn 10 | The FQ4 guide is flat at 50.4% on +12.5% revenue and the CFO himself called forward improvement 'slow' with ramp-cost headwinds persisting several quarters, so I model only ~20-40bps/yr of expansion, not the value-pricing narrative. |
| accept | Capacity to double quarterly system output by 2028 · turn 4 | Bryce explicitly de-linked it from revenue ('It is more nuanced... It's capacity. So it's not a revenue forecast for 2028'), so I accept the capex commitment but refuse to let it inflate FY28 revenue. |
| discount | China revenue (26% of systems+AGS) will grow this calendar year and next · turn 4 | The call never addressed export-control or policy risk on a 26% China exposure concentrated in 28nm foundry — an unhedgeable exogenous variable I reflect in wider downside tails and lower out-year growth rather than in the p50. |
| discount | AGS grows >20% in CY2026 and mid-teens sustainably long term · turn 3 | The 22% y/y print corroborates the near term, but Bryce conceded the utilization-driven spares surge is one-time ('you can only grow to 100% utilization once'), so I model AGS decelerating to ~12% by FY28 rather than durable mid-teens. |
| discount | ICAPS overall will grow this year and next, digestion expiring · turn 26 | Management said it is 'hopeful' the digestion is expiring — hedged language on the most China-levered, most cyclical piece of the portfolio, so I take partial credit only. |
| accept | Advanced packaging revenue grows more than 70% in calendar 2026 · turn 3 | Corroborated by reported DRAM-including-HBM revenue up 52% y/y to records and consecutive record segment prints in the 8-K quarter. |
| year | revenue $M · EPS | growth, was → now | why it changed |
| FY2026 | 34,387 was 33,222 EPS 13.00 was 12.37 | +17.1% → +22.0% | Q3 beat my p50 by $80M and the FQ4 guide came in $900M above my prior guide expectation of $9,350M; the year is now $24,037M reported plus my $10,350M FQ4, up from my prior $33,222M. I sit ~$100M above the management-implied $34,287M because the sole graded guide event resolved above midpoint — I treat the guide as a floor, not a mean. |
| FY2027 | 40,500 was 38,650 EPS 15.60 was 15.00 | +16.3% → +17.8% | Raised from $38,650M on a higher FY26 base, confirmed sequential growth into the 14-week FQ1, ICAPS returning to growth, and eight-quarter customer commitments; EPS raised to $15.60 despite the tax rate stepping to ~13%. Deliberately below the exit-rate math (FQ4 annualizes to $41B+ before any growth) because I discount peak-cycle visibility claims and assume some CY26 tool pull-in borrowed from CY27; management's 'another strong record year' is directionally accepted but not extrapolated. |
| FY2028 | 43,500 was 42,250 EPS 17.20 was 17.00 | +9.3% → +7.4% | Raised modestly from $42,250M purely on the higher FY26/FY27 base carrying forward; I explicitly do not underwrite the doubled-capacity footprint as demand. Management's capacity-doubling by 2028 would imply ~$14B quarterly systems potential; I hold growth to +7.4% because Bryce himself disclaimed it as a revenue forecast and semicap base rates argue for digestion after two 20%+ years. |
| FY2029 | 45,800 was 45,200 EPS 18.50 was 18.77 | +7.0% → +5.3% | Nudged up from $45,200M only for base effects; nothing in the release or call gives credible FY2029-specific evidence, and 2030 'conversations' are technology roadmap talk, not bookings. I hold trend growth at ~5% versus management's open-ended multi-year AI narrative — silence on cyclical downside and China policy risk is priced here as a lower terminal growth rate. |
| FQ3 reported vs our sealed number (mechanical) | +80 |
| new guide plus call, combined (no pre-call vintage to split them) | +1,085 |
| total revision | +1,165 |