AMAT post-call outlook — pricedin.markets

experimental vintage — six-model median after the FQ3 print and call; combiner median-v1 · fable, gpt-sol, gemini 3.7, grok 4.6, kimi, muse · the 18 Aug single-model page is archived at v1

AMATApplied Materials

current outlook · after the FQ3 FY2026 report and call

🗂 Pre-earnings release→🗂 Post-release→Post-call outlook

House view is the median of six contract-valid seats, taken after the print and the call. Resting state — revises again when new filings land.

What this outlook has seen

✓8-K results, 2026-08-13	SEC filing · byte-verified · print + new guide
✓Earnings call, 2026-08-13	in the visual pack every seat saw · the claim-by-claim pass is on the archived 18 Aug page
◷10-Q	not yet filed · this page revises again when it lands

Next quarter — fiscal Q4 2026

our 80% range, low to high · | our number · company guide · resolves at the fiscal Q4 print

metric

our number

company guide

Revenue $M

10,250

10,250 ± 500

9,775

10,725

was 10,350 on the 18 Aug page — cut -100

Adjusted EPS

4.02

4.02 ± 0.20

was 4.10 on the 18 Aug page — -0.08

Free cash flow $M

2,325

not guided

was 2,150 on the 18 Aug page

CFO $M

3,050

Gross margin

50.4%

Operating margin

34.9%

Capex $M

725

The call layer

This vintage is the six-model median of the post-print slate, not a second pass that dispositioned each management claim. The 18 Aug single-model page did that work and stays archived at outlook/v1.

Fiscal-year path — the shape, re-underwritten full model — every seat, forward →

revenue growth rate by fiscal year, prior published page → now

year	revenue $M · EPS	growth, was → now	why it changed
FY2026	34,287 was 34,387 EPS 12.76 was 13.00	+22.0% → +20.9%	Nine-month reported 24,037 plus FQ4 at the guide midpoint 10,250. Prior published sat $100M above this median (FQ4 $100M over the guide midpoint).
FY2027	44,850 was 40,500 EPS 17.62 was 15.60	+17.8% → +30.8%	Median of six seats with WFE × share behind Semiconductor Systems; replaces the single-model fade path. WFE 140,600 at 22.1% share.
FY2028	49,750 was 43,500 EPS 20.15 was 17.20	+7.4% → +10.9%	Same six-model median, one year on; WFE and share are stated drivers, not an asserted fade. WFE 160,000 at 22.2% share.
FY2029	53,688 was 45,800 EPS 22.60 was 18.50	+5.3% → +7.9%	Same construction. Spread across seats is wide; the published number is the median. WFE 175,400 at 22.8% share.

verdict: acceleratingshape: mixed

Where the FY2026 revenue change came from

single-model FQ4 (10,350) replaced by six-model FQ4 at guide mid (10,250)	-100
total revision vs 18 Aug page	-100

Six seats — FY path

each column is that seat’s p50; the published number is the median

year · rev / EPS	Fable 5	GPT-5.6 Sol	Kimi K3	Muse Spark 1.2	Grok 4.6	Gemini 3.7 Flash
FY2027	44,700 17.75	45,250 17.85	45,400 17.85	35,800 13.05	41,200 16.80	45,000 17.50
FY2028	48,500 20.00	52,000 21.50	51,200 22.40	38,500 14.20	45,800 19.50	51,000 20.30
FY2029	50,500 21.00	58,000 24.80	56,875 26.00	41,000 15.10	49,200 21.80	57,000 23.40

Vintages: sealed 2026-08-13 · post-call 2026-08-18 (archived) · six-model slate 2026-08-19 · next on the 10-Q. Every prior state archived.

Mechanical gates: six of six roster seats contract-valid · combiner median-v1 · FY2026 = 24,037 reported + 10,250 Q4 = 34,287