Q3 2026 · the quarter BAC reports
Sales
PricedIn$30.4B$29.4B – $31.4B
$29.4B$30.4B$31.4B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.09$0.97 – $1.21
$0.97$1.09$1.21
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All six build the quarter on the chief executive's September fee guide; middles sit between $30.1B and $30.6B, differing mainly on how much wealth fees and interest income offset softer trading.
Third-quarter sales slip to about $30.4B as deal and trading fees cool from a record second quarter, while interest income keeps growing.
Sales$30.4B$29.4B – $31.4B · +5% on Q3 2025 ($29.0B)
Adjusted EPS$1.09$0.97 – $1.21
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Bank of America had a record second quarter: sales of $31.6B, up 15% on a year earlier, with interest income of $16.0B and fee income of $15.6B lifted by trading and deal-making. Trading alone brought in $7.1B.
In mid-September the chief executive warned that the third quarter would cool: investment banking fees of $1.6B to $1.8B, trading flat on last year's strong third quarter, wealth fees up 10 to 15%, and expenses holding near $18.6B, which he said makes the quarter tough.
The models take that guide at face value. On average they see fee income falling to about $14.0B while interest income rises to about $16.4B, helped by loan growth and older loans and bonds repricing at higher rates. Sales land near $30.4B, 3.7% below the second quarter but above the $29.0B of a year earlier.
Profit follows the dip. With expenses flat at $18.6B and credit losses steady at $1.4B, income before taxes falls to about $10.4B from $11.6B, and net income to about $8.3B from $9.1B.
The spread is narrow. Grok sits lowest at $30.1B, taking the middle of the fee range and holding trading at last year's level; Gemini and Muse Wonder sit highest at $30.6B. Sol allows the widest range, from $28.9B to $31.5B, because late-quarter deals could swing the result.
Earnings per share of about $1.09, against $1.21 in the second quarter, come from net income near $8.3B less preferred dividends, spread over a share count that buybacks cut every quarter.
Sales by quarter
Q1 2025$28.2B
Q2 2025$27.4B
Q3 2025$29.0B
Q4 2025$28.4B+7%
Q1 2026$30.3B+7%
Q2 2026$31.6B+15%
Q3 2026$30.4B+5%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
Trading revenue by quarter
Third quarter 2025$5.40B
Fourth quarter 2025$4.50B
Second quarter 2026$7.10B
Where each number comes from
- Third quarter 2025
Sales and trading revenue up 9% to $5.4 billion including net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) gains of $14 million. Excluding net DVA, up 8%.(E) 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
- Fourth quarter 2025
Sales and trading revenue of $4.5 billion, up 10%, including and excluding net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $17 million.(E) 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
- Second quarter 2026
Sales and trading revenue of $7.1 billion, incl. net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $57 million. Up 33% incl. and excl. net DVA.(E) 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
Trading dropped at the end of 2025, then hit a record in the second quarter; the third quarter is guided flat on last year's level.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter deal fees
- Investment banking $1.6B to $1.8B, trading flat on last year
investment banking $1.6B to $1.8B and sales and trading flat.
Chief executive, September 14 conference - Wealth fees
- Asset management fees up 10 to 15% in the third quarter
Investment management AUM fees up 10 to 15% which is good news. And then you're back into loans and
Chief executive, September 14 conference - Quarterly expenses
- Bouncing around $18.6B a quarter
about the rest of the company. And then expenses are bouncing around at the $18.6B level, which makes
Chief executive, September 14 conference - Interest income outlook
- 2026 growth at the upper end of 6% to 8%
at the upper end of that 6% to 8% range, supported by anticipated loan and deposit growth, fixed rate asset
July 14 earnings call - Credit losses
- Provision and net charge-offs both about $1.4B in the second quarter
approximately $1.4 billion. Net charge-offs were also $1.4 billion, and both were largely unchanged from Q1.
July 14 earnings call
Low and high
Base $30.4B sales, $1.09 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$29.4Bsales · −3% vs base
$0.97EPS · −11% vs base
Sales near $29.4B, 3.3% below the base and 6.9% under the second quarter. Investment banking fees would land under the $1.6B bottom of the guided range, trading would fall below last year rather than stay flat, and expenses would hold at $18.6B while revenue drops. Earnings per share would fall to about $0.97. Sol's low is deepest at $28.9B; GLM's is shallowest at $29.9B.
Third-quarter sales were $29.0B a year earlier, and sales fell 2.8% from the first to the second quarter of 2025, so a quarterly drop of this size has precedent.
Deal fees and trading fall below the guide4 of 6
- Gemini 3.8 FlashCapital markets activity slows markedly with investment banking fees falling below $1.6 billion and sales and trading contracting
- Muse Wonderinvestment banking fees slip below the guided range and do not recover in the fourth quarter
- Opus 5.5investment banking and trading revenue falling
- Grok 4.7Capital markets revenue stays well below the first-half pace
Expenses stay fixed while revenue drops3 of 6
- Opus 5.5expenses sticky while revenue slows
- Muse WonderExpenses stay near the current run rate while revenue falls, removing operating leverage
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSticky noninterest expenses failing to flex down with lower revenue leading to negative operating leverage
Credit losses start rising3 of 6
- Opus 5.5credit losses rising from a weaker consumer
- Grok 4.7Credit losses rise as unemployment drifts higher and fuel stays expensive
- Muse WonderProvision for credit losses rises with charge-offs
The six lows run from $28.9B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $29.9B (GLM 5.3).
First signThe third-quarter release in October: investment banking fees under $1.6B, or trading below last year's third quarter.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$31.4Bsales · +3% vs base
$1.21EPS · +10% vs base
Sales near $31.4B, 3.2% above the base and nearly level with the second quarter, just 0.6% below it. Deal fees would beat $1.8B, trading would rise on last year rather than stay flat, wealth fees would reach the top of the 10 to 15% range, and interest income would top about $16.5B. Earnings per share would reach about $1.21. Muse Wonder's high is the most generous at $31.8B; Opus and GLM stop at $31.0B.
The second quarter brought $31.6B, a record, with sales up 15% on a year earlier, so the high case only asks the bank to hold most of that pace.
Trading and deal fees beat the September guide4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Trading and investment banking stronger than the September indication
- Muse WonderInvestment banking above 1.8 billion dollars and sales and trading up year over year
- Gemini 3.8 FlashContinued strength in fixed income and equities trading outperforming flat guidance
- GPT-6.1 SolTrading and investment banking rebound from the third-quarter slowdown
Wealth fees lifted by record stock markets3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Wealth fees lifted by higher markets
- Gemini 3.8 FlashBuoyant wealth management asset management fees propelled by equity markets reaching record highs
- Muse WonderAsset management fees up 10 to 15 percent with market gains
Interest income grows faster on higher rates3 of 6
- Opus 5.5faster net interest income growth from higher rates
- Grok 4.7Faster net interest income from further rate increases and fixed-rate repricing
- GLM 5.3asset sensitivity pays as the Fed hikes, about $1 billion of net interest income per 100 basis points
The six highs run from $31.0B (GLM 5.3) to $31.8B (Muse Wonder).
First signThe third-quarter release in October: trading up on last year's third quarter, or investment banking fees above $1.8B.
Watch
The third-quarter release in October. Higher: interest income above about $16.5B, deal fees above $1.8B, trading up on last year. Lower: deal fees under $1.6B, trading down on last year, or credit provisions climbing above about $1.6B.
Q4 2026 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$30.7B$29.2B – $32.1B
$29.2B$30.7B$32.1B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.16$0.97 – $1.31
$0.97$1.16$1.31
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Five of six see a small rise; GLM and Muse Wonder bet on a trading rebound to $31.3B and $31.4B, while Gemini alone sees a dip to $30.2B.
Fourth-quarter sales edge up to about $30.7B as interest income keeps climbing and trading partly recovers from a weak quarter a year earlier.
Sales$30.7B$29.2B – $32.1B · +8% on Q4 2025 ($28.4B)
Adjusted EPS$1.16$0.97 – $1.31
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The fourth quarter of 2025 was soft: sales of $28.4B, 2.3% below the third quarter, with trading of only $4.5B and investment banking fees of $1.7B. That leaves an easy comparison for the end of 2026.
The company points to support. Its banking book gains about $1B of yearly interest income for each one-point rise in rates, and the Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.88% on September 17. The chief executive says deal pipelines are staying full.
On average the models put fourth-quarter interest income near $16.7B and fee income flat at about $14.0B, with expenses at $18.6B and credit losses at $1.4B. Sales reach about $30.7B, 1.0% above the third quarter.
They split on trading. GLM and Muse Wonder expect a rebound, with GLM building trading near $5.7B and deal fees near $1.9B, reaching $31.3B and $31.4B. Opus sees almost no growth because fourth quarters are seasonally weak for trading, and Gemini alone sees a dip, to $30.2B.
The year's arithmetic frames it: $61.8B of 2026 sales is already booked, so the fourth quarter is what the full-year forecast leaves after the third.
About $1.16, 5.7% above the third quarter: net income near $8.5B, lighter fourth-quarter preferred dividends lifting income to common shareholders to about $8.2B, and a smaller share count.
What it rests on
- Year-ago trading
- Fourth-quarter 2025 trading revenue of $4.5B
Sales and trading revenue of $4.5 billion, up 10%, including and excluding net debit valuation adjustment (DVA) losses of $17 million.(E) 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release - Year-ago deal fees
- Investment banking fees of $1.7B in fourth quarter 2025
Total Corporation investment banking fees (excl. self-led) of $1.7 billion, up 1%
Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release - Deal pipelines
- Pipelines staying full; deals still need financing
now we're seeing it solid in the pipelines are staying full and the deals got to get financed and get done. It
Chief executive, September 14 conference - Rate rise sensitivity
- About $1B more interest income per one-point rise
parallel shift above the forward curve is expected to increase NII by $1 billion over the next 12-month period.
July 14 earnings call - Federal Reserve rate
- Raised to 3.88% on September 17
2026-09-17 3.88
Federal Reserve data
Low and high
Base $30.7B sales, $1.16 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$29.2Bsales · −5% vs base
$0.97EPS · −16% vs base
Sales near $29.2B, 4.8% below the base and 3.8% under the third-quarter average. Deal fees and trading would stay weak for a second quarter, deposit costs would catch up with loan yields, and credit losses would start to climb, pulling earnings per share down to about $0.97. Grok's low is deepest at $28.4B; GLM's is shallowest at $30.3B.
The fourth quarter of 2025 came in at $28.4B, 2.3% below the quarter before, so a weak year-end has happened recently.
Trading and deal fees stay weak past September3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Trading and investment banking stay soft past this quarter
- Muse Wonderinvestment banking fees slip below the guided range and do not recover in the fourth quarter
- GPT-6.1 SolThe third-quarter fee slowdown persists
Deposit costs catch up with asset yields3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Deposit costs reprice faster than loans and securities
- Gemini 3.8 FlashRising deposit competition compressing net interest margin gains despite higher benchmark rates
- Muse Wonderhigher long-term rates curb loan demand while deposit costs catch up
Credit losses begin rising3 of 6
- Grok 4.7push card and commercial losses up
- Opus 5.5credit losses rising from a weaker consumer
- GPT-6.1 SolHigher credit provisions and slower share repurchases hurt per-share earnings
The six lows run from $28.4B (Grok 4.7) to $30.3B (GLM 5.3).
First signThe October third-quarter release: deal fees below $1.6B, or management pointing fourth-quarter interest income below about $16.7B.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$32.1Bsales · +5% vs base
$1.31EPS · +14% vs base
Sales near $32.1B, 4.6% above the base and 5.7% above the third quarter. The deal pipeline would close in the fourth quarter, trading would rebound from the September lull, and another rate rise would lift interest income faster than deposit costs. Earnings per share would reach about $1.31. Sol's high is the boldest at $33.0B; Gemini's stops at $31.4B.
The second quarter of 2026 delivered $31.6B with investment banking fees of $2.1B, so the high case asks the bank to return to that pace and a little beyond.
Deal pipeline closes before year-end3 of 6
- Grok 4.7The investment banking pipeline closes in the fourth quarter
- Opus 5.5investment banking pipeline converting
- Muse Wonderinvestment banking pipelines convert faster than guided
Trading rebounds from the third-quarter lull3 of 6
- Grok 4.7trading rebounds from this quarter's lull
- GPT-6.1 SolTrading and investment banking rebound from the third-quarter slowdown
- GLM 5.3a normal fourth quarter of 2026 (trading near $5.7 billion, investment banking near $1.9 billion on strong pipelines)
Another rate rise lifts interest income2 of 6
- Grok 4.7Another rate increase lifts net interest income faster than deposit costs
- GLM 5.3asset sensitivity pays as the Fed hikes, about $1 billion of net interest income per 100 basis points
The six highs run from $31.3B (Opus 5.5) to $33.0B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signIn October, a fourth-quarter interest income outlook above $17B; then January results with investment banking fees back above $2B.
Watch
The October third-quarter release and its fourth-quarter interest income outlook, then January results. Higher: interest income pointed above $17B, deal fees back above $2B. Lower: a second weak quarter for deal fees, or credit provisions rising past about $1.6B.