Q4 2026 · the quarter BAC reports
Sales
PricedIn$30.4B$28.9B – $31.9B
$28.9B$30.4B$31.9B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.14$0.92 – $1.32
$0.92$1.14$1.32
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All six middles fall between $30.2B and $31.0B. Opus, at the bottom, will "hold fourth-quarter trading income near the third quarter's weak level". Muse Wonder, at the top, lets "Asset management and other fees grow with client balances". Grok's range is the widest, $28.2B to $33.0B: at its low, "Sales and trading and investment banking stay weak"; at its high, "Trading, investment banking, and wealth fees reaccelerate together".
About $30.4B of sales in the fourth quarter, edging up as interest income keeps rising and trading steadies after a weak summer.
Sales$30.4B$28.9B – $31.9B · +7% on Q4 2025 ($28.4B)
Adjusted EPS$1.14$0.92 – $1.32
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Bank of America's third quarter brought $30.0B of sales, down 5.1% from the second quarter and a little short of our $30.4B forecast. Net interest income, what the bank earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits, reached $16.4B. Trading and deal fees fell after a sharp jump in interest rates. A one-time $1.2B regulatory penalty cut reported profit; adjusted earnings per share were $1.08.
Management still expects net interest income to grow about 8% this year, which needs another step up in the fourth quarter. The finance chief said the third quarter's trading weakness has eased in October and may offset the usual year-end slowdown, and that the bank is back to growing revenue faster than costs.
All six models put fourth-quarter sales between $30.2B and $31.0B. They build it the same way: net interest income near $16.7B, fees of about $13.7B, and costs of about $18.6B now that the penalty is gone. Credit losses stay near $1.3B as card losses and late payments keep improving.
Where they differ is trading. Opus and GLM hold it near the weak third-quarter level, while Muse Wonder, at $31.0B, expects fees to grow with client balances. Grok's range is the widest, from $28.2B to $33.0B, because trading can swing fee income by a couple of billion dollars either way.
Adjusted earnings per share of about $1.14 come from roughly $8.1B of profit for common shareholders, a tax rate near 20%, and buybacks that cut the share count about 1% a quarter.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$27.4B
Q3 2025$29.0B
Q4 2025$28.4B+7%
Q1 2026$30.3B+7%
Q2 2026$31.6B+15%
Q3 2026$30.0B+3%
Q4 2026$30.4B+7%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter interest income
- $16.4B, up 8% on a year earlier
Net Interest Income Up 8% YoY to $16.4 Billion
Third-quarter earnings release - Full-year interest income guide
- About 8% growth in 2026
Still expect to hit that full-year revised NII growth guidance of approximately 8%.
October earnings call, finance chief - Costs without the penalty
- A little over $18.5B, up slightly under 7%
Excluding that charge, adjusted expense was a little more than $18.5 billion, down nearly $100 million from Q2, and up slightly less than 7% from a year ago.
October earnings call, finance chief - Year-end trading
- Third-quarter weakness easing, may offset the usual year-end slowdown
now the fourth quarter obviously has seasonality but those two may offset one another
October earnings call, finance chief - Credit losses
- Provision about $1.3B, lower than the second quarter
Provision expense was approximately $1.3 billion, lower than Q2, and the net charge-off ratio improved to 44 basis points.
October earnings call
Low and high
Base $30.4B sales, $1.14 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$28.9Bsales · −5% vs base
$0.92EPS · −19% vs base
Sales would fall to about $28.9B, 3.4% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.92. That needs trading and deal fees to stay weak or slide further, net interest income to stall as deposit costs rise after the expected December rate rise, and credit losses to climb as fuel and borrowing costs squeeze households. Grok goes furthest, to $28.2B, because it sizes the trading swing biggest: it can "swing fee income by a couple of billion dollars either way".
Fourth quarters can be soft for trading: a year earlier, sales fell 2.3% from the third quarter to $28.4B.
Trading and deal fees stay weak into year-end4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Sales and trading and investment banking stay weak
- Opus 5.5Trading and investment banking stay weak as rates rise
- Muse WonderSales and trading and investment banking fees fail to recover
- GPT-6.1 SolLower investment, trading and wealth-management fees
Credit losses climb as fuel and rates squeeze borrowers4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Credit costs climb as higher fuel prices and borrowing costs pressure households and companies
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAccelerated credit card delinquency rates requiring higher provision build
- Muse WonderProvision for credit losses rises above recent levels
- GLM 5.3The credit cycle: card and commercial charge-offs rising
Deposit costs rise faster than loan yields3 of 6
- Opus 5.5Deposit costs under three more rate rises
- Grok 4.7deposit costs rise faster than asset yields
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower loan growth and more expensive deposits
The six lows run from $28.2B (Grok 4.7) to $29.3B (Gemini 3.8 Flash).
First signFourth-quarter net interest income flat or down from the third quarter's $16.4B in the mid-January 2027 report.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$31.9Bsales · +5% vs base
$1.32EPS · +17% vs base
Sales would reach about $31.9B, 6.6% above the third quarter, with earnings per share near $1.32. Trading would have to rebound toward the first-half pace, deals in a healthy pipeline would have to close, and net interest income would have to top what the 8% full-year guide implies, while costs stay near $18.6B. Grok goes furthest, to $33.0B, on the same trading swing in reverse, sized at "a couple of billion dollars either way".
The second quarter showed the upside: sales reached $31.6B, up 4.2% on the first quarter.
Trading and deal fees rebound after a weak summer4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Trading, investment banking, and wealth fees reaccelerate together
- GPT-6.1 SolTrading recovery and conversion of deal pipelines into fees
- Muse WonderEquities, fixed income trading and investment banking recover from the soft third quarter
- Opus 5.5Investment banking and trading rebound
Interest income beats the full-year guide2 of 6
- Grok 4.7Balance-sheet growth and the rate path push net interest income above 8 percent.
- GLM 5.3Net interest income above the 8% guide as loan growth accelerates
Wealth fees keep rising with markets2 of 6
- Opus 5.5Wealth management fees on high markets
- GPT-6.1 SolStrong wealth-management inflows and investment markets
The six highs run from $31.0B (GLM 5.3) to $33.0B (Grok 4.7).
First signFourth-quarter net interest income above $17.0B in the mid-January 2027 report.
Watch
The mid-January 2027 report: net interest income above $16.7B and trading back toward the first-half pace point higher; flat interest income, rising credit losses or a cut to the 8% guide point lower. Final capital rules, expected this quarter, will set the buyback pace.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$32.1B$30.3B – $33.8B
$30.3B$32.1B$33.8B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.25$1.03 – $1.45
$1.03$1.25$1.45
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Middles run from Grok's $31.8B to Sol's $32.4B. Grok is lowest because deposit costs lag rate rises, so "I do not pass the full asset-sensitivity benefit of three further increases into 2027 net interest income". Sol is highest, expecting "a first-quarter rebound in fee income alongside higher compensation expense". Sol's range is also the widest, $29.3B to $35.3B: "Continued weakness drives the low; a broad recovery drives the high."
About $32.1B of sales in the first quarter of 2027, as seasonal trading strength adds to steadily rising interest income.
Sales$32.1B$30.3B – $33.8B · +6% on Q1 2026 ($30.3B)
Adjusted EPS$1.25$1.03 – $1.45
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The first quarter of 2027 is the one the bank will describe in its January outlook. It follows the December rate rise management assumes, the first of three quarter-point increases it expects through June 2027.
Management expects 2027 net interest income to grow 8% or more, helped by modest loan and deposit growth and fixed-rate assets rolling into higher yields. The chief executive said rates are only a small part of that. The finance chief expects to give fuller 2027 guidance with the fourth-quarter results.
The models put sales at $31.8B to $32.4B, a 5.6% rise on their fourth quarter. They lean on the usual first-quarter pattern: trading is seasonally strongest, fees reach about $15.1B and net interest income about $17.0B. Costs also rise, to about $19.2B, because pay resets peak early in the year.
On January 1, 2027 the extra capital the bank must hold as one of the largest banks rises by half a percentage point. Most models keep buybacks going anyway; Grok and Sol let it slow them in their weaker cases.
Earnings per share near $1.25 rest on profit of about $8.9B for common shareholders, a lower first-quarter tax rate near 19%, and a share count still falling with buybacks.
What it rests on
- 2027 interest income guide
- Growth of 8% or more
And for 2027, we currently expect full-year growth of NII to be 8% or more, higher than 2026, and again higher than our original 5% to 7% range.
October earnings call, finance chief - Rate rises assumed
- Three more: December, March and June
This outlook also assumes 325 basis point rate increases through June of 2027, so in December 26 and March and June of next year.
October earnings call, finance chief - Capital surcharge step-up
- Rises half a point on January 1, 2027
on January 1, 2027, the Corporation’s G-SIB surcharge will increase by 50 bps
Second-quarter quarterly report - Capital cushion
- 10.9% against a 10% minimum
just recognizing that we're at 10.9% CET1 and a reg minimum at 10%.
October earnings call, chief executive - Deposit growth assumed
- Low single digits, with interest-free deposits still growing
we're assuming low single digits for deposit growth broadly
October earnings call, finance chief
Low and high
Base $32.1B sales, $1.25 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$30.3Bsales · −6% vs base
$1.03EPS · −18% vs base
Sales would slip to about $30.3B, 0.4% below the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $1.03. The seasonal trading lift would have to fail, the December rate rise slip or deposit costs catch up, and credit losses rise, while the January capital step-up slows buybacks. Sol goes furthest, to $29.3B, because it treats trading as "the largest near-term source of the revenue range" and adds that "Competition for deposits erodes the benefit of higher loan yields".
First quarters have been strong: sales rose 6.7% from the fourth quarter in both 2025 and 2026.
Seasonal trading lift fails to arrive3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolContinued weakness drives the low
- Muse WonderSales and trading and investment banking fees fail to recover
- Grok 4.7fee businesses stay soft after the third-quarter pause in trading and investment banking
Rate rises slip or turn into cuts3 of 6
- Muse WonderRates do not rise as assumed
- Grok 4.7Rate increases slip, or they arrive while the economy is already slowing.
- Gemini 3.8 Flashunexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts
Capital step-up slows buybacks2 of 6
- Grok 4.7The higher capital buffer and slower buybacks keep the share count from falling
- GPT-6.1 SolLess capital available for share repurchases
The six lows run from $29.3B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $31.3B (GLM 5.3).
First signThe mid-January 2027 outlook trimming the guide of 8% or more for 2027 interest income.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$33.8Bsales · +5% vs base
$1.45EPS · +16% vs base
Sales would reach about $33.8B, 11% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $1.45. Trading and deal fees would need a strong seasonal rebound, the rate rises would have to arrive with deposit costs contained, and credit losses keep falling. Sol goes furthest, to $35.3B, because it expects "Trading recovery and conversion of deal pipelines into fees" together with "Faster profitable loan growth and asset replacement".
Sales reached $31.6B in the exceptional second quarter of 2026, before slipping 5.1% in the third.
Trading and deal fees rebound together3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolTrading recovery and conversion of deal pipelines into fees
- Muse WonderEquities, fixed income trading and investment banking recover from the soft third quarter
- Gemini 3.8 FlashRebound in capital markets driving double-digit increases in investment banking and market making fees
Rate rises arrive with deposit costs contained3 of 6
- Grok 4.7the expected rate increases arrive while deposit costs stay contained
- Opus 5.5Asset-sensitive balance sheet under rising rates
- Muse WonderRate increases arrive as assumed
Credit losses keep falling2 of 6
- Muse WonderProvision falls toward 1 billion dollars a quarter as charge-offs keep improving
- Grok 4.7Credit costs stay near recent lows
The six highs run from $33.0B (GLM 5.3) to $35.3B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signIn mid-January 2027, a 2027 interest-income outlook above 8% and strong fourth-quarter trading.
Watch
Mid-January 2027: the 2027 outlook for interest income and costs, and fourth-quarter trading. A December rate rise and final capital rules easing the January step-up point higher; a skipped rise, faster deposit costs or slower buybacks point lower. The first-quarter report itself comes in mid-April 2027.