Q4 2026 · the quarter BE reports
Sales
PricedIn$1.48B$1.23B – $1.71B
$1.23B$1.37B$1.48B$1.58B$1.71B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.14$0.78 – $1.47
$0.78$0.96$1.14$1.30$1.47
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Five models put the middle at $1.5B; Gemini is lowest at $1.4B and $1.12 a share, expecting results 'near the midpoint of its updated 2026 guidance'. Sol is highest on earnings, $1.17, as 'Lower installation share and scale improve blended margins'. Muse Wonder's range is widest, $1.1B to $1.9B: low if 'Several large deliveries slip past year end', high if 'Customers pull deliveries forward'.
The models expect fourth-quarter sales of about $1.5B, near the top of what the raised full-year outlook leaves, as year-end deliveries land.
Sales$1.48B+91% on Q4 2025 ($0.78B)50% range$1.37B – $1.58B80% range$1.23B – $1.71B
Adjusted EPS$1.14+153% on Q4 2025 ($0.45)50% range$0.96 – $1.3080% range$0.78 – $1.47
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$127M
Free cash flow$90.0M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Bloom Energy makes fuel cell power systems, now sold mostly to AI data centers that need power faster than the grid can supply it. Third-quarter sales reached $1.2B, 16% above the second quarter, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.94. Both beat our earlier forecast of $1.1B and $0.76.
In October the company raised its 2026 sales outlook to $4.4B–$4.6B and its earnings per share outlook to $3.10–$3.40. With $3.1B of sales already booked, the fourth quarter carries the rest. Management said the timing of a small number of year-end deliveries decides where in the range the year lands.
All six models put the middle near $1.5B, about 20% above the third quarter, with earnings per share of about $1.14. They lean a little above the middle of the range because the company beat each earlier outlook this year, and they hold gross margin near the 34% the company guides.
They differ on the edges. Two customers made 43% and 26% of third-quarter sales, so one campus slipping past December 31 can move the quarter by hundreds of millions of dollars. The low averages $1.2B and the high $1.7B.
Earnings per share of about $1.14 rest on gross margin near 34% and operating margin near 20%, with costs growing far slower than sales and almost no income tax thanks to past losses.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$0.40B+20%
Q3 2025$0.52B+57%
Q4 2025$0.78B+36%
Q1 2026$0.75B+130%
Q2 2026$1.07B+166%
Q3 2026$1.24B+138%
Q4 2026$1.48B+91%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter sales
- $1.2B, up 138.1% on a year earlier
Achieved record quarterly revenue of $1,235.8 million, delivering 138.1% year-over-year growth
Third-quarter earnings release - Full-year sales outlook
- $4.4B to $4.6B, raised in October
Raises full year 2026 revenue guidance to $4.4 billion - $4.6 billion, representing 122% year-over-year growth at the midpoint
Third-quarter earnings release - What decides the quarter
- The timing of a small number of deliveries around year-end
With one quarter remaining, the timing of a small number of deliveries around year-end will determine where in the range we land.
Third-quarter earnings call - Customer concentration
- Two customers made 43% and 26% of third-quarter sales
During the three months ended September 30, 2026, revenue from two customers*, the second of which is our related party (see Note 11—Related Party Transactions in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q), accounted for approximately 43% and 26% of our total revenue.
Quarterly report for September 2026 - Gross margin outlook
- About 34% on an adjusted basis for 2026
We are maintaining our most recent non-GAAP gross margin outlook of approximately 34%.
Third-quarter earnings call
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Fourth-quarter sales land near $1.5B, a little above the middle of the company's implied range. The company has raised its 2026 outlook at every report this year and beaten each one.6 of 6
- Grok 4.7Management's raised 2026 outlook, built from signed orders and a probability-weighted pipeline
- Opus 5.5Each raise this year has been beaten, so I put the fourth quarter a little above the midpoint
- GLM 5.3because it has beaten and raised guidance every quarter this year
- Gemini 4 ArgonBloom delivers fourth-quarter results near the midpoint of its updated 2026 guidance
- Muse WonderI centred the current year on the midpoint of that range
- GPT-6.1 SolI use customer acceptance timing, not old seasonality, for the quarter.
Operating costs keep growing far slower than sales, lifting operating margin to about 20%. In the third quarter sales grew 138% while operating expenses grew only 26%.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5operating costs growing much slower than sales
- Grok 4.7Operating costs growing far more slowly than sales, so profit rises faster than revenue
- GLM 5.3Margin expansion from double-digit annual cost reductions and structural operating leverage
- Gemini 4 ArgonStructural operating leverage and double-digit annual product cost reductions driving gross and operating margin expansion
- Muse WonderOperating leverage as revenue grows faster than operating spending
- GPT-6.1 SolImproving product and service economics
Gross margin holds near 34%, as the company guides. Management kept its adjusted gross margin outlook at about 34% in October.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5with gross margin near 34%
- GLM 5.3Gross margin holds near the company's guided 34% (non-GAAP) in 2026
- Muse WonderProduct and service gross margins near the guided level
- GPT-6.1 SolI do not extrapolate the latest product margin gains without startup and expediting costs.
If all of this happens
$1.48Bsales
$1.14adjusted EPS
$127MCapital spending
$90.0MFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
A few large year-end deliveries slip into 2027, taking sales near $1.2B. Management says a small number of deliveries around year-end decides where the year lands.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5timing of a few large campus deliveries
- Grok 4.7Year-end acceptance of a small number of large deliveries decides where 2026 lands
- GLM 5.3A large concentrated customer (the largest was 43% of 2025 revenue) defers deliveries around year-end
- Muse WonderDelivery timing slips at a small number of large sites
- GPT-6.1 SolDelayed equipment acceptance and cash milestones
Ramping new lines and rushing deliveries hold margins down. The factory is doubling capacity this year, and startup and expediting costs rise with it.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5costs of ramping new lines and rushing deliveries
- GPT-6.1 SolFactory startup, supplier and warranty costs
- Muse WonderCapacity ramp and expediting costs pressure gross margin
- Gemini 4 ArgonUnder-absorption of expanded manufacturing capacity alongside tariff and commodity input cost pressures
- GLM 5.3Steel, aluminum and copper tariffs, copper near $14,500 a ton, and scarce rare-earth supply raise product costs faster than price
Permits or financing push campus start dates out. The September quarterly report says even fuel cell projects now face permitting delays.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5permitting delays and data center moratoriums
- Gemini 4 ArgonSpreading state and municipal moratoria and permitting delays on large data center developments
- Grok 4.7Higher borrowing costs and dearer metals can slow project finance and raise product cost
- GPT-6.1 SolTighter project financing and tax-credit qualification
If all of this happens
$1.23Bsales · −17% vs base
$0.78EPS · −32% vs base
Fourth-quarter sales would have to fall to about $1.2B, flat on the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.78. That means a few large campus deliveries slip past December 31 and their sales move into 2027, leaving 2026 below the company's $4.4B floor. Rushing deliveries and starting new production lines would keep margins from rising. Muse Wonder goes furthest, to $1.1B and $0.60 a share, because it alone adds that 'Operating spending continues while revenue is delayed'. Sol's low earnings of $0.65 rest on 'Factory startup, supplier and warranty costs'.
Two customers made 43% and 26% of third-quarter sales. A strong year-end has been followed by a sharp drop before: in the first quarter of 2025 sales fell 43% from the quarter before.
The six lows run from $1.05B (Muse Wonder) to $1.33B (Gemini 4 Argon).
First signWord, before or at the next report, that a large campus acceptance moved past December 31, 2026.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
All year-end deliveries land and in-quarter orders ship, taking sales near $1.7B. The company books and ships some orders within the same year, as it did through 2026.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5gigawatt-scale campus orders converting quickly
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster conversion of orders and urgent new demand
- Muse WonderFaster customer site readiness and pull forward of deliveries
- GLM 5.3Book-and-ship customers keep arriving within the year, as in 2026 when full-year guidance was raised three times
- Grok 4.7Backlog growing faster than sales, with the major United States hyperscalers already validated
- Gemini 4 ArgonAccelerated site readiness and block deliveries for multi-gigawatt hyperscale campuses including Oracle Project Jupiter and American Electric Power projects
Factory capacity stays ahead of orders, so supply never caps the quarter. Management says it is neither order constrained nor capacity constrained.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5capacity added ahead of demand
- GPT-6.1 SolSuccessful modular factory expansion
- Grok 4.7Factory capacity that management says is not the constraint and can be added in months
- GLM 5.3Capacity added in copy-exact increments staying ahead of committed orders, keeping Bloom from being the bottleneck
Product cost cuts outrun startup costs, lifting margins above the base. Product gross margin reached 38.4% in the third quarter even while new lines ramped.3 of 6
- Opus 5.5product margin gains from scale
- GPT-6.1 SolCost reduction and operating leverage
- Muse WonderOperating leverage on a larger revenue base
If all of this happens
$1.71Bsales · +16% vs base
$1.47EPS · +30% vs base
Fourth-quarter sales would have to reach about $1.7B, 39% above the third quarter, with earnings per share near $1.47. That means every planned year-end delivery is accepted and customers who need power within the quarter book and take delivery too, putting 2026 above the top of the $4.6B range. Margins would rise as product cost cuts outrun startup costs. Muse Wonder goes furthest on sales, to $1.9B, holding that 'Customers pull deliveries forward, in year bookings convert at a high rate'. Sol goes furthest on earnings, to $1.78, through 'Cost reduction and operating leverage'.
The company lifted its 2026 sales outlook at each report, from $3.1B–$3.3B in February to $4.4B–$4.6B in October, and results beat each earlier range.
The six highs run from $1.58B (Gemini 4 Argon) to $1.85B (Muse Wonder).
First signNews of large orders shipping before December 31, 2026, or fourth-quarter sales above $1.6B at the next report.
Watch
The next report gives fourth-quarter sales: under $1.4B points lower, above $1.6B higher. Before then, watch for a campus acceptance slipping past December 31, 2026, permitting pauses at data center sites, or new orders shipping inside the quarter.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$1.50B$1.17B – $1.92B
$1.17B$1.34B$1.50B$1.70B$1.92B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.14$0.68 – $1.60
$0.68$0.92$1.14$1.35$1.60
Middlethe forecast50% range1 in 4 chance the result comes in below this bar, 1 in 4 above it. Half the time it lands inside.80% range1 in 10 chance below this line, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Four models see growth on the fourth quarter, two a small dip. Opus is lowest, $1.4B and $1.07, since 'the timing of one or two large campus deliveries can move a quarter by hundreds of millions of dollars'. Sol is highest on earnings, $1.6B and $1.24, using 'a rising delivery run rate rather than a mechanical replay of historical fourth-quarter seasonality'. Muse Wonder's range is widest, $1.0B to $2.2B: low if 'Delivery timing slips at a small number of large sites', high on 'Faster customer site readiness'.
The models see first-quarter 2027 sales of about $1.5B, roughly level with the fourth quarter, as new capacity offsets the usual early-year dip.
Sales$1.50B+100% on Q1 2026 ($0.75B)50% range$1.34B – $1.70B80% range$1.17B – $1.92B
Adjusted EPS$1.14+159% on Q1 2026 ($0.44)50% range$0.92 – $1.3580% range$0.68 – $1.60
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
This is the quarter whose outlook the company will give at its next report, along with its first outlook for 2027. The company guides by year, not by quarter, because its quarterly pace is driven by customer readiness and delivery timing.
In past years the first quarter fell back after a strong year-end: sales dropped 43% in early 2025 and 3.4% in early 2026. The models expect a smaller pause this time, because backlog is growing faster than sales and factory capacity doubles to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026.
The average middle is $1.5B, about 1.4% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share of $1.14. Opus and Grok see a small dip; Sol, GLM, Muse Wonder and Gemini see growth, reading a rising delivery pace into 2027.
The range is wide, $1.2B to $1.9B, because one or two campuses can move a quarter by hundreds of millions of dollars, and because 2027 has no company outlook yet.
Earnings per share of about $1.14 assume gross margin near 34%, operating margin near 20% and a tiny tax charge; stock pay and a slowly rising share count are the main drags.
What it rests on
- Factory capacity plan
- Doubling from 1 to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026
We plan to double our factory capacity from 1 gigawatt to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026.
2025 annual report - Backlog
- Growing faster than sales, across more customers and regions
Our customer pipeline continues to grow, and our backlog is continuing to expand faster than our revenue, with increasing diversity in customers, verticals, and geographies.
Third-quarter earnings call - Customer deposits
- Up $583.1M in nine months on newly signed agreements
The increase in customer deposits of $583.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, was primarily driven by receipt of new deposits associated with recently executed customer agreements and milestone payments on ongoing projects, partially offset by certain deposits becoming non-refundable and reclassified to deferred revenue.
Quarterly report for September 2026 - Customer concentration
- Two customers made 43% and 26% of third-quarter sales
During the three months ended September 30, 2026, revenue from two customers*, the second of which is our related party (see Note 11—Related Party Transactions in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q), accounted for approximately 43% and 26% of our total revenue.
Quarterly report for September 2026
Low and high
Basethe middle forecast
Key assumptions
Sales hold near $1.5B, about level with the fourth quarter, as backlog keeps converting. Backlog is growing faster than sales, so early 2027 need not repeat past first-quarter drops.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5conversion of a fast-growing backlog
- Grok 4.7Product backlog of about 6 billion dollars at the end of 2025, still growing faster than sales
- GLM 5.3Conversion of a product backlog growing faster than revenue
- Gemini 4 ArgonExecution against a rapidly growing multi-gigawatt backlog across hyperscalers, neoclouds, utilities, and industrial customers
- Muse WonderProduct deliveries from backlog and in year bookings
- GPT-6.1 SolBroader data-center and utility equipment deliveries
Factory output keeps rising in steps, so supply does not cap the quarter. Capacity doubles to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026, inside a footprint that can reach 5.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5factory capacity added in steps
- GPT-6.1 SolProduction expansion aligned to customer readiness
- Grok 4.7A factory footprint that can reach 5 gigawatts a year, added in small steps
- GLM 5.3A manufacturing footprint that already supports 5 gigawatts a year
- Gemini 4 ArgonIncremental manufacturing capacity additions in Fremont and Newark
- Muse WonderCapacity added gradually inside and then beyond the present footprint
Operating margin stays near 20% as costs grow slower than sales. In the third quarter sales grew 138% while operating expenses grew only 26%.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5operating costs growing much slower than sales
- Grok 4.7Operating costs growing far more slowly than sales, so profit rises faster than revenue
- GLM 5.3Margin expansion from double-digit annual cost reductions and structural operating leverage
- Gemini 4 ArgonStructural operating leverage and double-digit annual product cost reductions driving gross and operating margin expansion
- Muse WonderOperating leverage as revenue grows faster than operating spending
- GPT-6.1 SolImproving product and service economics
If all of this happens
$1.50Bsales
$1.14adjusted EPS
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
What the low case assumes
Customer sites slip in early 2027, cutting sales to near $1.2B. A few large campuses make most sales, so one delay moves the quarter.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5timing of a few large campus deliveries
- Grok 4.7Year-end acceptance of a small number of large deliveries decides where 2026 lands
- GLM 5.3A large concentrated customer (the largest was 43% of 2025 revenue) defers deliveries around year-end
- Muse WonderDelivery timing slips at a small number of large sites
- GPT-6.1 SolDelayed equipment acceptance and cash milestones
Costlier or tighter project finance slows new starts. Most customers pay over time through financiers, and borrowing costs have risen.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5higher project financing costs
- GPT-6.1 SolTighter project financing and tax-credit qualification
- Grok 4.7Higher borrowing costs and dearer metals can slow project finance and raise product cost
- GLM 5.3Project financing and tax-equity uptake slows with the 10-year Treasury above 5% and high-yield spreads near 3.4%
- Gemini 4 ArgonTighter credit availability and higher financing costs for data center developers and third-party equipment financiers
New lines run below capacity while costs keep rising, squeezing margins. Capacity doubles by the end of 2026, so idle lines weigh if deliveries pause.5 of 6
- Opus 5.5costs of ramping new lines and rushing deliveries
- GPT-6.1 SolFactory startup, supplier and warranty costs
- Muse WonderCapacity ramp and expediting costs pressure gross margin
- Gemini 4 ArgonUnder-absorption of expanded manufacturing capacity alongside tariff and commodity input cost pressures
- GLM 5.3Steel, aluminum and copper tariffs, copper near $14,500 a ton, and scarce rare-earth supply raise product costs faster than price
Data center permits pause in more states. The September quarterly report says moratoriums spread from New York to other states.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5permitting delays and data center moratoriums
- Gemini 4 ArgonSpreading state and municipal moratoria and permitting delays on large data center developments
- Grok 4.7A slowdown in artificial-intelligence data centers, which the company itself flags, would cut demand
- GLM 5.3Hyperscaler and neocloud capital spending cuts push site-ready dates out of quarters and shrink book-and-ship volume
If all of this happens
$1.17Bsales · −22% vs base
$0.68EPS · −41% vs base
Sales would have to drop to about $1.2B, 21% below the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $0.68. That means customers' sites are not ready in early 2027, as in early 2025 when sales fell 43% after a strong year-end, while factory and operating costs keep rising on the expanded lines. Permitting pauses or costlier project finance would delay new starts. Muse Wonder goes furthest, to $1.0B and $0.40 a share, because it holds that 'Operating spending continues while revenue is delayed' and that 'one site delay can hold revenue down sharply'.
First-quarter sales fell 43% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026 from the fourth quarter before. Two customers made 43% and 26% of third-quarter 2026 sales.
The six lows run from $1.00B (Muse Wonder) to $1.33B (GLM 5.3).
First signA first 2027 outlook at the next report, in early 2027, implying a weak start, or news of a large campus delay.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
What the high case assumes
Signed campuses take power early and in-quarter orders ship. Deposits from newly signed agreements jumped, pointing to deliveries ahead.6 of 6
- Opus 5.5gigawatt-scale campus orders converting quickly
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster conversion of orders and urgent new demand
- Muse WonderFaster customer site readiness and pull forward of deliveries
- GLM 5.3Book-and-ship customers keep arriving within the year, as in 2026 when full-year guidance was raised three times
- Grok 4.7Backlog growing faster than sales, with the major United States hyperscalers already validated
- Gemini 4 ArgonAccelerated site readiness and block deliveries for multi-gigawatt hyperscale campuses including Oracle Project Jupiter and American Electric Power projects
Capacity added ahead of orders lets every ready site ship. Management says it will never be the bottleneck to customers getting power.4 of 6
- Opus 5.5capacity added ahead of demand
- GPT-6.1 SolSuccessful modular factory expansion
- Grok 4.7Factory capacity that management says is not the constraint and can be added in months
- GLM 5.3Capacity added in copy-exact increments staying ahead of committed orders, keeping Bloom from being the bottleneck
Financing partners fund projects without delay. Brookfield expanded its financing commitment five-fold to $25B in June 2026.3 of 6
- Grok 4.7A financing shelf, including Brookfield's 25 billion dollar commitment, that can fund projects even if credit is tight
- Gemini 4 ArgonRapid deployment of the $25 billion Brookfield and $2.6 billion Industrial Development Funding project financing shelves
- Muse WonderFinancing partners fund projects without delay
If all of this happens
$1.92Bsales · +28% vs base
$1.60EPS · +40% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $1.9B, 30% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $1.60. That means signed campuses, such as Oracle's up to 2.45 gigawatt block in New Mexico, take power early, orders booked within the quarter ship, and margins climb as new lines mature. Sol and Muse Wonder go furthest, to $2.2B; Sol also reaches $2.05 a share, because 'October's backlog commentary supports continued expansion, not a plateau at the fourth-quarter annualized run rate.'
Customer deposits rose $583.1M in the first nine months of 2026 on newly signed agreements, and the company says its backlog is growing faster than its sales.
The six highs run from $1.64B (Gemini 4 Argon) to $2.20B (Muse Wonder).
First signA first 2027 outlook at the next report, in early 2027, implying strong growth from the start, or new gigawatt orders with near-term delivery.
Watch
The next report brings the first 2027 outlook: a range implying growth near the 2026 pace points higher, a flat start lower. Also watch deposits, campus delivery news and permitting pauses in data center states.