cutoff 4 November 2026, 14:14 ET
The forecast for Coherent: the next two quarters line by line, three years of sales and EPS, a low and a high case. Next report: Q1 FY27 on 4 November after the close.
Sales and earnings outlook
Next quarter · Q1 FY27
Sales$2.36B+49% on Q1 FY26
Adjusted EPS$2.06+77% on Q1 FY26
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$650M
Free cash flow−$530M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Capital spending buys advanced tooling and manufacturing equipment, mainly six-inch indium phosphide laser lines and transceiver assembly, which the company says pays back in about 18 months; little of it lifts this quarter's sales. The middle case has capital spending of $650M against cash from operations of $120M, so free cash flow, defined as cash from operations less capital spending, is −$530M while inventory builds for the ramp.2 of 7
- Analyst FJune-quarter capital spending was $556 million. I model about $650 million a quarter in fiscal 2027 (about $2.6 billion for the year), which keeps free cash flow negative this year.
- Analyst CCapex was $556M in Q4-FY2026 and the CFO said it will increase sequentially again in Q1, with datacenter investments carrying an 18-month payback.
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- Three years of sales and earnings per share, each with its low and high case, the seven analysts' own numbers and the story
- The forecast after the call, the same day
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