The print cleared the band.
The guide cleared the slate.
Cisco printed $17,252M of revenue and $1.22 of adjusted EPS, both above our six-model medians and inside the sealed 80% ranges. Free cash flow of $4,996M printed above its band. The new-quarter guide of $18.0–$18.2B and $1.32–$1.34 sat entirely above the sealed guide expectation.
A beat on the quarter; a larger beat on the next one.
Revenue of $17,252M landed $322M, or 1.9%, above the $16,930M median and $352M above the $16.8B midpoint of Cisco’s own in-force guide. Adjusted EPS of $1.22 sat on the top edge of the aggregate band. The Q1 FY2027 ranges cleared the entire sealed guide forecast.
01 · Surprise scorecard
Reported minus our sealed number
Positive means the company reported above our forecast. The six-model median was sealed at 2026-08-12 00:00:00Z, before the 8-K was accepted at 20:07:06Z.
| Metric | Reported | Our number | Surprise | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 17,252 | 16,930 | +322 · +1.9% | inside 16,660–17,270 |
| Adjusted EPS | 1.22 | 1.18 | +0.04 · +3.4% | inside 1.15–1.22 · top edge |
| GAAP EPS | 0.97 | 0.85 | +0.13 · +14.8% | no aggregate band |
| GAAP gross margin | 64.13% | 63.81% | +0.31 pt | modestly above |
| GAAP operating margin | 24.72% | 23.90% | +0.81 pt | above |
| Capex ($M) | 390 | 465 | −75 · −16.1% | less spend |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4,996 | 4,026 | +970 | above 3,200–4,750 |
Sources: 8-K Ex. 99.1, blocks b0000099, b0000129, b0000150 and b0000156 · graded v5 event · owner-verified 2026-08-17
02 · Calibration
Where actuals landed in the aggregate ranges
03 · Forward signal
The new guide was larger than the print surprise
FQ1 2027 revenue
Our pre-release aggregate expected $16.3B–$16.6B. The reported midpoint is $1.65B, or 10.0%, above our midpoint. Sequential growth implied by the new midpoint versus the just-printed $17,252M is about 4.9%.
FQ1 2027 adjusted EPS
Our aggregate expected $1.10–$1.13. The company’s low end sits $0.195 above our high end. GAAP EPS guidance is $1.08–$1.10.
Resolved Q4 guide
The in-force Q4 revenue guide, from the May 8-K, had a $16.8B midpoint. Reported $17,252M is $452M, or 2.7%, above that midpoint. Non-GAAP EPS guided $1.16–$1.18; reported $1.22.
FY 2027 frame
Full-year non-GAAP EPS guided $5.05–$5.11. This page does not invent a sealed full-year median for FY2027; the graded v5 contract’s next-quarter guide block is the comparison used above.
04 · Model scoreboard
Qwen was closest on revenue; Kimi on adjusted EPS; GPT‑5.6 Sol on cash
Error below is forecast minus reported. Every valid model was low on revenue and adjusted EPS. Only GPT‑5.6 Sol was near free cash flow; the other five were low by $876M to $1,311M.
| Model | Revenue | Error $M | Adj. EPS | Error | FCF $M | Error $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 | 17,000 | −252 | 1.18 | −0.04 | 4,120 | −876 |
| GPT‑5.6 Luna | 16,850 | −402 | 1.18 | −0.04 | 3,975 | −1,021 |
| GPT‑5.6 Sol | 16,860 | −392 | 1.18 | −0.04 | 5,000 | +4 |
| Kimi K3 | 16,800 | −452 | 1.19 | −0.03 | 3,750 | −1,246 |
| Qwen 3.8 Max | 17,100 | −152 | 1.18 | −0.04 | 4,077 | −919 |
| Grok 4.5 | 17,020 | −232 | 1.175 | −0.045 | 3,685 | −1,311 |
Open the graded event · machine-readable scorecard · four sealed models produced no contract-valid forecast and are omitted here
05 · Earnings quality
GAAP and non-GAAP both beat; cash beat harder than the P&L
$0.13 above the $0.85 median
on the top edge of 1.15–1.22
CFO $5,386M less capex $390M
8-K Ex. 99.1 · b0000099, b0000129 and b0000156 · FCF = CFO − capex, same function used on the forecast grid
06 · What changed
Thesis update
The print was a clean beat versus both bars.
Revenue and adjusted EPS cleared the sealed medians and stayed inside the 80% ranges. They also cleared Cisco’s own May guide of $16.7–$16.9B and $1.16–$1.18.
The next-quarter guide is the larger surprise.
Q1 FY2027 revenue of $18.0–$18.2B and adjusted EPS of $1.32–$1.34 sit entirely above the sealed $16.3–$16.6B / $1.10–$1.13 expectation. That is a bigger miss for the slate than the quarter just printed.
Cash conversion ran the other way from the recent pattern.
Free cash flow of $4,996M printed $970M above the median and above the $4,750 top of the band. Five of six models were low. GPT‑5.6 Sol’s $5,000M was the only near print.
This vintage does not re-underwrite the out-years.
FY2027 guided $72.2–$73.4B and $5.05–$5.11. A post-release re-slate would be a separate timestamped vintage. This page grades the already-sealed v5 pre-print only.
8-K · b0000028, b0000099, b0000129 and b0000156 · prior guide 0000858877-26-000075
07 · Next checks
What would strengthen or break the read
Strengthens
- Q1 revenue at or above the $18.1B midpoint with adjusted EPS at or above $1.33.
- Another quarter of free cash flow near or above $5.0B after $390M of capex.
- A later 10-K that confirms the 8-K figures without restatement.
Weakens
- Q1 revenue below the $18.0B guide floor, or adjusted EPS below $1.32.
- Free cash flow falling back toward the $4,026M pre-print median while revenue holds.
- A 10-K or 8-K/A that revises the Q4 figures used on this page.
08 · Evidence status
Release graded; call Q&A is not an input
| Evidence | Time held / available | Digest or status |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K Ex. 99.1 | accepted 2026-08-12 20:07:06Z | 0000858877-26-000106 · exhibit991pressrelease-q4f.htm |
| v5 pre-print, six valid models | sealed 2026-08-12 00:00:00Z | combiner median-v1 · 6 of 10 contract-valid |
| Owner verification | 2026-08-17 | all fourteen actuals figures confirmed against EX-99.1 |