Printed Aug 12, 2026 after the close. Forecasts sealed 2026-08-12 — graded against the 8-K (accession 0000858877-26-000106). 6 of 10 sealed models were contract-valid; combiner median-v1.
Reported first; forecast columns follow. Error sign on this surface: forecast − reported.
Evidence at seal: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, XBRL). IR presentations and management earnings commentary were not yet served to models. Cross-era error levels are not comparable; within-event model comparisons are.
| Metric | Reported | Published (median) | Claude Fable 5 | GPT-5.6 Luna | GPT-5.6 Sol | Grok 4.5 | Kimi K3 | Qwen 3.8 Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 17,252 | 16,930 | 17,000 | 16,850 | 16,860 | 17,020 | 16,800 | 17,100 |
| GAAP EPS | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| Adjusted EPS | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| EBITDA ($M) | 5,944 | 4,992 | 4,995 | 5,014 | 4,990 | 4,940 | 4,555 | 5,048 |
| Gross margin (pts) | 64.1 | 63.8 | 63.8 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 63.8 | 62.5 | 63.8 |
| Operating margin (pts) | 24.7 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 22.8 | 24.0 |
| Capex ($M) | 390 | 465 | 480 | 450 | 500 | 450 | 550 | 400 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4,996 | 4,026 | 4,120 | 3,975 | 5,000 | 3,685 | 3,750 | 4,077 |
| Metric | Published range | Reported | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 1.15 – 1.22 | 1.22 | inside |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,200 – 4,750 | 4,996 | outside |
| Revenue ($M) | 16,660 – 17,270 | 17,252 | inside |
no valid forecast Claude Haiku 4.5, Claude Opus 5, DeepSeek V4 Flash, GLM 5.2 — no contract-valid forecast was published before the print; the event counts against their records.