Q3 2026 · the quarter DAL reports
Sales
PricedIn$19.9B$19.1B – $20.6B
$19.1B$19.9B$20.6B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.63$1.15 – $2.16
$1.15$1.63$2.16
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Four models cut earnings well below guidance, from Grok at $1.30 to GLM at $1.80; Gemini keeps the guidance midpoint of $2.25. Sales agree closely.
September-quarter earnings near $1.63 a share, below Delta's July guidance, because jet fuel ran far above the price it planned on.
Sales$19.9B$19.1B – $20.6B · +19% on Q3 2025 ($16.7B)
Adjusted EPS$1.63$1.15 – $2.16 · −4% on Q3 2025 ($1.70)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$1.34B
Free cash flow$254M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Delta's June quarter brought record sales of $19.8B and earnings of $1.56 a share. In July it guided the September quarter to revenue up mid-teens and earnings of $2.00 to $2.50, assuming fuel at about $3.15 a gallon. Gulf Coast jet fuel then climbed from $2.71 on July 2 to $4.68 at the end of September.
Sales are not in doubt: the models sit between $19.6B and $20.1B, because fares were still rising into the summer and the refinery's outside sales rise with product prices. Earnings are where they part. Four models put the quarter well below guidance: Grok at $1.30, Opus at $1.38, Sol at $1.43 and GLM at $1.80.
Gemini alone takes the company's guidance at face value, at $2.25. The others reason that fares lag fuel by a quarter or two, while lower profit sharing and a bigger refinery benefit give back only part of the extra fuel bill.
Earnings turn on Delta's all-in fuel price, which the models put near $4.00 to $4.13 a gallon against the $3.15 in guidance, softened by a larger refinery benefit and lower profit sharing.
Sales by quarter
Q1 2025$14.0B+2%
Q2 2025$16.6B−0%
Q3 2025$16.7B+6%
Q4 2025$16.0B+3%
Q1 2026$15.9B+13%
Q2 2026$19.8B+19%
Q3 2026$19.9B+19%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Fuel price in guidance
- About $3.15 a gallon for the September quarter, from the July 2 forward curve
This results in a projected all-in fuel price for the quarter of approximately $3.15 per gallon.
July earnings release - Earnings guidance
- $2.00 to $2.50 a share, operating margin 11 to 13 percent
In the September quarter, we expect earnings per share to grow over prior year to $2.00 to $2.50 on an operating margin of 11 to 13 percent
July earnings release - Revenue outlook
- Revenue up mid-teens over the prior year on modest capacity growth
For the September quarter, we expect revenue to grow mid-teens over prior year on modest capacity growth, with unit revenue growth improving sequentially.
July earnings release - June-quarter fuel price
- $3.93 a gallon, up 75% on a year earlier
•Adjusted fuel price of $3.93 per gallon increased 75 percent year-over-year
July earnings release - Jet fuel, September 30
- $4.68 a gallon at the Gulf Coast
2026-09-30 4.677
Government jet fuel price series
Low and high
Base $19.9B sales, $1.63 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$1.34BCapital spending
$254MFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$19.1Bsales · −4% vs base
$1.15EPS · −30% vs base
Fuel stays near September's peak, the refinery helps little and fares stop rising as travelers pull back. Sales slip to about $19.1B, 3.8% under the base, and earnings fall to about $1.15 a share, with Sol as low as $0.65.
In the June quarter fuel cost $3.93 a gallon and Delta still earned $1.56 a share.
Jet fuel staying above $4.50 a gallon4 of 5
- Opus 5.5jet fuel above $4.50 a gallon, or a fare giveback once fuel falls
- GLM 5.3Jet fuel sustained above $4.50 a gallon, or a fresh spike, with no relief in crack spreads
- GPT-6.1 SolPersistent high jet fuel prices and limited refinery relief
- Gemini 3.8 FlashPersistent spike in jet fuel and crude oil prices depressing consumer travel demand
Costs other than fuel keep rising fast4 of 5
- Opus 5.5non-fuel unit costs stay up near 7 percent
- GLM 5.3Non-fuel cost inflation stays near 7% on crew and maintenance
- Grok 4.7Non-fuel costs keep rising faster than flying
- GPT-6.1 SolCrew, airport and maintenance costs stay elevated
Fare increases stall as travelers pull back3 of 5
- Opus 5.5fare increases stall as consumer sentiment weakens
- GPT-6.1 SolTravel demand weakens as fares rise
- GLM 5.3Demand destruction: main-cabin bookings fall as fares rise double digits into a weak consumer
The five lows run from $18.8B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $19.5B (GLM 5.3).
First signDelta's September-quarter report in October showing an all-in fuel price above four dollars a gallon with unit revenue growth slipping.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$20.6Bsales · +4% vs base
$2.16EPS · +32% vs base
Delta's fuel cost lags the market and the refinery earns heavily on wide margins, so the all-in price lands near $3.60 a gallon, while fares rise faster than in spring. Sales reach about $20.6B and earnings about $2.16 a share, back inside the July guidance.
The July guidance of $2.00 to $2.50 a share assumed fuel at about $3.15 a gallon.
Refinery earns far more on wide fuel margins4 of 5
- Opus 5.5refinery benefit of 30 cents a gallon or more
- GLM 5.3Record Trainer refinery profits on wide cracks
- Grok 4.7The refinery runs fully and third-party sales stay high while the refining margin is wide
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster fuel normalization and a fully productive refinery
Fares outrun fuel, airline revenue up near 20 percent2 of 5
- Opus 5.5airline revenue growth near 20 percent
- GLM 5.3the fare recapture overshoots - unit revenue prints above 16% in Q3 and near 20% in Q4
Fuel falls back quickly, as in June2 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel falling back quickly, as it did in June
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSignificant decline in jet fuel crack spreads and crude oil prices
The five highs run from $20.5B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $20.9B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA September-quarter report in October with earnings of $1.90 a share or more.
Watch
Delta's September-quarter report in October: an all-in fuel price under $3.70 a gallon or revenue growth near 20 percent points higher; fuel above four dollars a gallon with slowing unit revenue points lower.
Q4 2026 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$19.3B$18.2B – $20.5B
$18.2B$19.3B$20.5B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.36$0.70 – $2.14
$0.70$1.36$2.14
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Four models put the quarter between Grok's $0.80 and Sol's $1.29; Gemini, holding to the company's earlier guidance, stands apart at $2.55.
December-quarter earnings ease to about $1.36 a share, as fuel entering the quarter stays above $4.30 a gallon.
Sales$19.3B$18.2B – $20.5B · +21% on Q4 2025 ($16.0B)
Adjusted EPS$1.36$0.70 – $2.14 · −12% on Q4 2025 ($1.55)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Delta gives its December-quarter outlook at its October report. In July it said December bookings were coming in strong and that flying would grow 2% to 3%, led by international routes. Since then fuel has stayed high: Gulf Coast jet fuel was $4.34 a gallon on October 6.
The models expect sales of about $19.3B, a little below the September quarter, and earnings of about $1.36 a share. Grok is lowest at $0.80, with GLM at $1.06, Opus at $1.10 and Sol at $1.29; they expect fuel near $4.10 to $4.45 a gallon all-in.
Gemini again follows the company's earlier guidance and sits far above, at $2.55. Sol is the most hopeful on sales, at $20.1B, because it expects more fare recapture to reach bookings.
Earnings rest on how far fares have caught up with fuel near $4 a gallon, partly cushioned by profit sharing trued down from the first half's accrual.
What it rests on
- Jet fuel, October 6
- $4.34 a gallon at the Gulf Coast
2026-10-06 4.342
Government jet fuel price series - December bookings
- Coming in strong, though early, as of July
And while it remains early, December quarter bookings are coming in strong, giving us confidence that this revenue strength will extend through the fourth quarter.
July earnings call - Planned flying growth
- Fourth-quarter capacity up 2% to 3%, led by international
Capacity for the third quarter is up 1%, while fourth quarter planned 2% to 3%, led by international.
July earnings call - Profit sharing so far
- $493 million accrued in the first half
During the six months ended June 30, 2026, we accrued $493 million in profit sharing expense based on the year-to-date performance and current expectations for 2026 profit.
June-quarter report
Low and high
Base $19.3B sales, $1.36 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$18.2Bsales · −6% vs base
$0.70EPS · −48% vs base
Oil keeps climbing, jet fuel stays above $4.50 a gallon through winter and Delta's all-in price tops $4.40, while fares stop catching up. Sales fall to about $18.2B, 5.6% under the base, and earnings to about $0.70 a share.
Gulf Coast jet fuel was still $4.34 a gallon on October 6.
Fuel climbs further through the winter3 of 5
- Opus 5.5jet fuel above $4.50 a gallon, or a fare giveback once fuel falls
- GLM 5.3Jet fuel sustained above $4.50 a gallon, or a fresh spike, with no relief in crack spreads
- GPT-6.1 SolPersistent high jet fuel prices and limited refinery relief
Holiday demand breaks as fares keep rising3 of 5
- Grok 4.7it is why the low end of sales and earnings allows for a break in holiday demand if fares keep rising with fuel
- GLM 5.3Demand destruction: main-cabin bookings fall as fares rise double digits into a weak consumer
- Gemini 3.8 FlashMacroeconomic softening reducing business travel spending and leisure yields
The five lows run from $17.6B (Grok 4.7) to $18.7B (GLM 5.3).
First signDecember-quarter guidance in October with fuel above $4.30 a gallon and revenue growth below mid-teens.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$20.5Bsales · +6% vs base
$2.14EPS · +58% vs base
Fuel falls back in the December quarter the way it did in June, and the whole industry keeps raising fares, so unit revenue grows near 20%. Sales reach about $20.5B and earnings about $2.14 a share.
In July Delta said December-quarter bookings were coming in strong.
Fuel retreats quickly from its September peak3 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel falling back quickly, as it did in June
- Grok 4.7A clear drop in Gulf Coast jet fuel toward $3 a gallon before year-end
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSignificant decline in jet fuel crack spreads and crude oil prices
Industry-wide repricing lifts unit revenue sharply2 of 5
- GLM 5.3unit revenue prints above 16% in Q3 and near 20% in Q4 as the whole industry reprices against fuel near $4.30
- GPT-6.1 SolStrong corporate and premium travel with durable pricing
The five highs run from $19.8B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $21.8B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signA December-quarter outlook in October guiding earnings above $1.60 a share.
Watch
The October report's December-quarter outlook: revenue growth above mid-teens with fuel near $4 points higher; revenue growth below about 10% or fuel past $4.50 points lower. Jet fuel prices through November matter most.