Q4 2026 · the quarter DAL reports
Sales
PricedIn$20.3B$19.2B – $21.5B
$19.2B$20.3B$21.5B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$1.37$0.87 – $1.86
$0.87$1.37$1.86
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All five put earnings at $1.30 to $1.40 a share; sales differ more, from $19.8B to $20.6B, on refinery sales.
Sales near $20.3B and earnings near $1.37 a share, mid-guidance, as higher fares cover fuel near $4.25 a gallon.
Sales$20.3B$19.2B – $21.5B · +27% on Q4 2025 ($16.0B)
Adjusted EPS$1.37$0.87 – $1.86 · −12% on Q4 2025 ($1.55)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$1.32B
Free cash flow$552M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Delta's September quarter brought record airline revenue of $17.6B, up 16%, but fuel cost $3.61 a gallon, 60% more than a year earlier, and earnings of $1.72 a share fell short of July's guidance. Reported sales of $20.2B also include refinery sales to outside buyers, which rose with crude prices.
For the December quarter Delta expects revenue about 20% higher, excluding refinery sales, earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 a share, and an all-in fuel price near $4.25 a gallon. More than 60% of the quarter was already booked, and forward cash sales grew nearly 20%.
The five models put sales between $19.8B and $20.6B, mostly on how much refinery sales they add, and earnings between $1.30 and $1.40. Grok and GLM sit below the guidance midpoint after September's fuel miss; Opus, Sol and Gemini sit at $1.40.
Earnings come from airline revenue about 20% higher against a fuel bill near $4.5B and non-fuel unit costs up about 6%. Refinery sales add revenue but no profit. The average is $1.37.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$16.6B−0%
Q3 2025$16.7B+6%
Q4 2025$16.0B+3%
Q1 2026$15.9B+13%
Q2 2026$19.8B+19%
Q3 2026$20.2B+21%
Q4 2026$20.3B+27%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
Delta revenue excluding refinery sales, by quarter
Q1 2025$13.0B
Q3 2025$15.2B
Q4 2025$14.6B
Q1 2026$14.2B
Q2 2026$17.7B
Q3 2026$17.6B
Where each number comes from
- Q1 2025
Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %
- Q3 2025
Operating revenue, adjusted $ 17,585 $ 14,606 $ 15,197 16 %
- Q4 2025
Total Revenue, adjusted $ 14,606 1.2% (0.1)%
- Q1 2026
Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %
- Q2 2026
June quarter total revenue increased 14 percent over the same period last year to a record $17.7 billion on approximately 1 percent capacity growth.
- Q3 2026
Operating revenue, adjusted $ 17,585 $ 14,606 $ 15,197 16 %
The base under Delta's growth outlooks; refinery sales to outside buyers come on top in reported sales.
What it rests on
- December revenue outlook
- About 20% growth, excluding refinery sales
Expect continued momentum in December quarter with revenue expected to grow approximately 20 percent
October earnings release - December earnings outlook
- $1.15 to $1.65 a share
Earnings Per Share $1.15 - $1.65
October earnings release - Fuel price assumed
- About $4.25 a gallon, including a refinery benefit near $0.40
Guidance for the December quarter assumes fuel at the forward curve as of October 2, 2026, and includes a refinery benefit of approximately $0.40 per gallon. This results in a projected all-in fuel price for the quarter of approximately $4.25 per gallon.
October earnings release - Quarter already booked
- More than 60%
we're already greater than 60% booked for the quarter
October earnings call - September non-fuel unit costs
- Up 7.3% from a year earlier
•Non-fuel CASM was 14.03¢, an increase of 7.3 percent year-over-year
October earnings release
Low and high
Base $20.3B sales, $1.37 adjusted EPS: the story above.
$1.32BCapital spending
$552MFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$19.2Bsales · −5% vs base
$0.87EPS · −36% vs base
Jet fuel re-spikes above $5 a gallon or late bookings soften, so sales fall to about $19.2B and earnings to about $0.87 a share, 36% below the base.
In September fuel ran above plan; Delta absorbed more than $500 million of extra fuel cost and earned $1.72 against July's $2.00 to $2.50 guide.
Jet fuel staying high or rising5 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel price staying high, or falling fares outrunning falling fuel
- GPT-6.1 SolHigh fuel prices or renewed refinery disruption
- Grok 4.7Gulf Coast jet fuel stays above about $4 a gallon through 2027
- GLM 5.3Jet fuel price (Gulf Coast market above $5 per gallon, persisting)
- Gemini 3.8 FlashPersistent jet fuel crack spreads above historical norms eroding operating margins
Travelers resisting higher fares5 of 5
- Opus 5.5fares slipping as consumer and corporate spending weakens
- GPT-6.1 SolWeaker passenger demand and fare retention
- Grok 4.7This year's fare increases give back 3 to 5 points as some travelers resist
- GLM 5.3Fare increases finally hitting demand elasticity
- Gemini 3.8 FlashConsumer resistance to higher airfares leading to weaker passenger load factors
Non-fuel costs staying high4 of 5
- Opus 5.5unit costs rising on lower flying
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower recovery in crew productivity
- GLM 5.3Non-fuel unit cost growth stuck at 5 percent or more
- Gemini 3.8 FlashOperational disruption and severe winter weather raising non-fuel unit costs
The five lows run from $18.7B (Grok 4.7) to $19.9B (GLM 5.3).
First signGulf Coast jet fuel running above about $4.50 a gallon through November and December.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$21.5Bsales · +6% vs base
$1.86EPS · +36% vs base
Fuel eases inside the quarter while fares hold and bookings stay strong, so sales reach about $21.5B and earnings about $1.86 a share, 36% above the base and above Delta's $1.65 top.
September airline revenue grew 16%, with unit revenue up 15%, accelerating 3 points from the June quarter.
Fares holding as rivals cut flying4 of 5
- Opus 5.5fares holding as competitors cut flying
- GPT-6.1 SolDisciplined competing seat supply
- Grok 4.7Competitors keep removing unprofitable seats
- GLM 5.3Industry capacity discipline persists as sub-cost-of-capital carriers shrink
Premium and loyalty revenue growing faster4 of 5
- Opus 5.5premium and loyalty revenue keeping double-digit growth
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster premium and loyalty growth
- GLM 5.3Loyalty, American Express remuneration and MRO keep compounding double digits
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAccelerated loyalty remuneration from American Express surpassing ten billion dollars
Fuel falling back quickly3 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel falling back quickly
- Grok 4.7Jet fuel normalizes toward $2.50 to $2.70 a gallon
- Gemini 3.8 FlashRapid moderation in Gulf Coast jet fuel prices toward historical averages
The five highs run from $20.8B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $22.1B (Grok 4.7).
First signGulf Coast jet fuel dropping below $3.50 a gallon in November while unit revenue keeps rising.
Watch
Delta reports the December quarter in January. Fuel above $4.50 a gallon or bookings slowing from the near 20% pace points lower; fuel below $3.50 with fares holding points higher.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$19.0B$17.5B – $20.4B
$17.5B$19.0B$20.4B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$0.88$0.26 – $1.45
$0.26$0.88$1.45
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Sales range from Gemini's $18.0B to GLM's $19.6B; earnings from GLM's $0.60 to Grok's $1.00.
Sales near $19.0B and earnings near $0.88 a share, as the slow winter season meets fuel far dearer than a year ago.
Sales$19.0B$17.5B – $20.4B · +20% on Q1 2026 ($15.9B)
Adjusted EPS$0.88$0.26 – $1.45 · +37% on Q1 2026 ($0.64)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The March quarter is Delta's weakest season: this year it earned $0.64 a share on sales of $15.9B, with fuel at $2.62 a gallon. Next March fares are about 20% higher, but fuel near $4.00 a gallon laps that cheap base.
Delta has not yet given a March outlook. On the October call it said early bookings for the quarter look very similar to December, with good visibility for 90 to 120 days.
The models put sales between $18.0B and $19.6B and earnings between $0.60 and $1.00. GLM is lowest on earnings, carrying a fuel bill up about $1.8B from a year earlier; Grok is highest, expecting fares to hold into early 2027.
Earnings rest on fares still well above last year against fuel near $4.00 a gallon; refinery sales add revenue but no profit. The average of $0.88 is 36% below December's.
What it rests on
- Early March-quarter bookings
- Very similar to the December quarter
Like I said, fourth quarter is booking very well. Early indications from 1Q are very similar to 4Q.
October earnings call - Booking visibility
- About 90 to 120 days, into the first quarter
Joe Estosito (executive): Yeah, thanks. Like I said, fourth quarter is booking very well. Early indications from 1Q are very similar to 4Q. And so we're continuing to see good strength. We're assuming the economy is strong, and it is, and our corporates continue to book. So we'll be very, you know, we feel very good about forward bookings. We have good visibility probably for the next 90 to 120 days, which gets into the first quarter, and all indications are very positive.
October earnings call - Fuel price last March
- $2.62 a gallon, adjusted
Average price per fuel gallon, adjusted - see Note A $ 2.62 $ 2.45 7 %
First-quarter 2026 earnings release - Adjusted revenue last March
- $14.2B, up 9.4%
Operating revenue, adjusted $ 14,200 $ 15,507 $ 12,978 9.4 %
First-quarter 2026 earnings release - 2027 cost outlook
- Low-single-digit growth in non-fuel unit costs
Looking to next year, we remain on track for low-single-digit unit cost growth as capacity normalizes, operational improvements continue and we lap higher costs in our baseline.
October earnings release
Low and high
Base $19.0B sales, $0.88 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$17.5Bsales · −8% vs base
$0.26EPS · −70% vs base
Fuel stays above $4 a gallon through the winter and travelers balk at fares once the booked period ends, so sales slip to about $17.5B and earnings to about $0.26 a share; Sol's low is a loss of $0.20.
This March quarter Delta earned $0.64 a share with fuel at $2.62 a gallon and an operating margin of 3.2%.
Fuel staying above $4 a gallon4 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel price staying high, or falling fares outrunning falling fuel
- GPT-6.1 SolHigh fuel prices or renewed refinery disruption
- Grok 4.7Gulf Coast jet fuel stays above about $4 a gallon through 2027
- GLM 5.3Jet fuel price (Gulf Coast market above $5 per gallon, persisting)
Demand softening after the booked winter4 of 5
- Opus 5.5fares slipping as consumer and corporate spending weakens
- GPT-6.1 SolWeaker passenger demand and fare retention
- GLM 5.3Demand: forward booking and cash sales growth slowing from ~20 percent
- Gemini 3.8 FlashConsumer resistance to higher airfares leading to weaker passenger load factors
Winter disruption and crew costs3 of 5
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower recovery in crew productivity
- GLM 5.3Non-fuel unit cost growth stuck at 5 percent or more
- Gemini 3.8 FlashOperational disruption and severe winter weather raising non-fuel unit costs
The five lows run from $17.0B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $18.6B (GLM 5.3).
First signDelta's January outlook for the March quarter pointing to revenue growth under 10%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$20.4Bsales · +7% vs base
$1.45EPS · +66% vs base
Fares hold at December levels while fuel eases faster than expected, so sales reach about $20.4B and earnings about $1.45 a share, 66% above the base.
Forward cash sales grew nearly 20% in the September quarter, the highest quarterly growth since 2022.
Fares holding into early 20274 of 5
- Opus 5.5fares holding as competitors cut flying
- GPT-6.1 SolDurable fares despite lower fuel prices
- Grok 4.7The 2026 fare increases stick in full
- GLM 5.3Oil disruption resolves: Gulf Coast jet fuel back to $3.00-3.50 while fares hold
Fuel easing faster3 of 5
- Opus 5.5fuel falling back quickly
- Grok 4.7Jet fuel normalizes toward $2.50 to $2.70 a gallon
- Gemini 3.8 FlashRapid moderation in Gulf Coast jet fuel prices toward historical averages
Premium and corporate travel strength3 of 5
- Opus 5.5premium and loyalty revenue keeping double-digit growth
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster premium and loyalty growth
- Gemini 3.8 FlashOutsized premium cabin and corporate travel pricing power expanding operating margins into the mid teens
The five highs run from $19.0B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $20.9B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signDelta's January outlook still showing high-teens revenue growth for the March quarter on modest capacity.
Watch
Delta's January report gives the March outlook: high-teens revenue growth points higher, under 10% points lower. Watch fuel through the winter and whether bookings beyond the 90 to 120 day window stay as strong.