Q3 2026 · the quarter FAST reports
Sales
PricedIn$2.44B$2.35B – $2.53B
$2.35B$2.44B$2.53B
diluted EPS
PricedIn$0.34$0.31 – $0.36
$0.31$0.34$0.36
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
The models sit close: sales of $2.4B to $2.5B and earnings per share of $0.33 to $0.34. Gemini is lowest at $2.4B; it alone stresses that diesel 'surged above $6.50 per gallon in late September 2026, rising over 65% year-over-year.' Sol is highest at $2.5B, putting third-quarter sales 'about 16% above last year' where the others use about 14%.
Third-quarter sales near $2.4B and earnings per share of $0.34, as contract wins keep growth near the second quarter's pace.
Sales$2.44B$2.35B – $2.53B · +14% on Q3 2025 ($2.13B)
Diluted EPS$0.34$0.31 – $0.36 · +16% on Q3 2025 ($0.29)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$98.7M
Free cash flow$308M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Fastenal, which sells fasteners and factory supplies, grew second-quarter daily sales 14.7%, mostly by winning larger contract customers, with price increases adding about 2.9 points. June alone jumped 20.5%, but management said some of that came from one-off orders it would not normally get.
The quarter ended on September 30, but the company's monthly sales reports for July to September were not among the documents the models could read. So every model built the quarter from the second-quarter run rate, the seasonal pattern and outside data such as industrial production, about 1.4% above a year earlier in August.
All six models land at $2.4B to $2.5B, an average of $2.4B, about 2.3% above the second quarter. Most carry growth of about 14% on last year; Sol carries about 16%. None carries June's 20.5% pace forward.
On margins the models follow the finance chief, who said gross margin normally slips 10 to 20 hundredths of a point from the second quarter to the third. They put it near 44%, with operating margin near 21% as overhead spreads over more sales.
The risks run both ways. Diesel far above a year earlier and selling prices still lagging costs could squeeze margin, while faster contract start-ups could repeat June's surprise.
Earnings per share of $0.34 comes from about $2.4B of sales, gross margin near 44%, operating margin near 21% and a tax rate near 24%; buybacks only offset new shares, so the share count barely moves.
Sales by quarter
Q1 2025$1.96B+3%
Q2 2025$2.08B+9%
Q3 2025$2.13B+12%
Q4 2025$2.03B+11%
Q1 2026$2.20B+12%
Q2 2026$2.39B+15%
Q3 2026$2.44B+14%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Second-quarter daily sales growth
- 14.7%, driven by larger customers, pricing and broad demand
Daily sales increased 14.7% year-over-year, primarily driven by share gains with larger customers, pricing actions, and broad-based demand across core end markets.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings release - June sales growth
- 20.5% above June 2025, partly one-off orders
The decline as a percentage of net income compared to last year was primarily driven by a larger use of cash for accounts receivable, reflecting strong mid- and late-quarter sales growth, including a 20.5% year-over-year increase in June sales.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings release - Price added to growth
- About 2.9 points, up from 1.4 to 1.7 points a year earlier
The impact of product pricing on net sales in the second quarter of 2026 was an increase of approximately 290 basis points, compared to an increase of 140 to 170 basis points in the second quarter of 2025.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings release - Second-quarter gross margin
- 44.6%, down from 45.3%, mainly prices lagging costs
Gross profit, as a percentage of net sales, decreased 75 basis points to 44.6% in the second quarter of 2026 from 45.3% in the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by unfavorable net price/cost of approximately 40 basis points, and smaller headwinds from customer mix, transportation costs, and customer rebate activity.
Second-quarter 2026 earnings release - Normal third-quarter margin slip
- Gross margin usually drops 10 to 20 hundredths of a point
it's roughly 15 bits of sequential decline every quarter. And so if you look back between Q2 and Q3, you get roughly that. You get between 10 and 20 bits dropped just on a normal year when Fastenal is performing well and when Fastenal is maintaining or growing operating margins.
Finance chief, July 2026 earnings call
Low and high
Base $2.44B sales, $0.34 diluted EPS: the story above.
$98.7MCapital spending
$308MFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$2.35Bsales · −4% vs base
$0.31EPS · −9% vs base
Sales would have to come in near $2.4B, 1.3% below the second quarter, with earnings per share near $0.31. That needs June's one-off orders to vanish, factory demand to cool and fuel costs to keep outrunning prices, pushing gross margin under 44%. Gemini goes furthest on sales, to $2.3B, because it alone lets monthly daily sales growth fall 'below 8%'. Grok goes furthest on earnings, to $0.29, as 'Gross margin falls through 44 percent of sales.'
In 2024, with factories weak, Fastenal's sales grew only 2.7% for the year, and the third quarter of 2024 came in 0.3% below the second.
Factory output and construction cool6 of 6
- Opus 5.5industrial demand turns down
- Grok 4.7Manufacturing production turns down and non-residential construction cools after two strong quarters.
- Gemini 3.8 FlashDeceleration in manufacturing production and non-residential construction activity
- Muse WonderDaily sales growth slows to high single digits as heavy manufacturing and construction soften
- GLM 5.3Industrial production flattens as the oil shock and high borrowing costs bite
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower production and customer spending
Selling prices lag fuel and supplier costs5 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolSelling prices lag supplier and fuel costs
- Grok 4.7The gap between selling prices and product and freight costs widens instead of narrowing.
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSevere gross margin compression from high diesel fuel prices and tariff-related cost pressures
- Muse WonderPrice and cost stays unfavourable by more than 40 basis points
- Opus 5.5gross margin keeps sliding from price lagging cost
June's one-off orders do not repeat3 of 6
- GLM 5.3June's one-off orders do not repeat
- GPT-6.1 SolThe June acceleration proves partly temporary.
- Grok 4.7the June sales jump does not repeat
The six lows run from $2.32B (Gemini 3.8 Flash) to $2.39B (GLM 5.3).
First signThe third-quarter report, due in mid-October 2026, showing daily sales growth below about 10% or gross margin under 44%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$2.53Bsales · +4% vs base
$0.36EPS · +8% vs base
Sales would reach about $2.5B, 6.0% above the second quarter, with earnings per share near $0.36. Contract start-ups would have to keep June's speed, prices would catch up with costs and gross margin would hold near the second quarter's 44.6%. Sol goes furthest, to $2.6B and $0.38, because it lets 'Fast contract implementation and deeper penetration at major customers sustain faster growth than the base.'
Sales rose 8.4% from the first quarter to the second in 2026, and June grew 20.5% on a year earlier, so faster growth has happened recently.
Prices catch up with costs6 of 6
- Opus 5.5price catching up with cost and tariff refunds
- Grok 4.7The price-versus-cost gap closes, lifting incremental operating margins into the mid-20s.
- GLM 5.3Net price/cost reaches neutral by late 2026, lifting incremental margins to the mid-20s
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAchievement of price/cost neutrality and gross margin stabilization
- Muse WonderPrice and cost reaches neutrality and fuel pressure eases
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster cost recovery and sustained labor productivity
Contract wins turn into sales faster4 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster conversion of contract wins into recurring sales
- Opus 5.5faster volume from contract wins
- Grok 4.7Large-site and contract wins keep compounding rather than slowing as comparisons get harder.
- Muse WonderDaily sales growth stays mid teens through late 2026 as new orders rise
Factory orders lift output4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Manufacturing orders stay strong and factory output growth accelerates from about 1 percent toward the mid-single digits.
- GLM 5.3Business investment boom: core capital goods orders up 14% year over year feed fastener and cutting-tool demand
- Gemini 3.8 FlashRobust industrial production recovery driving acceleration in fastener and manufacturing demand
- GPT-6.1 SolBetter industrial and construction demand
The six highs run from $2.49B (Opus 5.5) to $2.60B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signThe mid-October 2026 third-quarter report showing daily sales growth above about 17% with gross margin near 44.6%.
Watch
The third-quarter report in mid-October 2026: daily sales growth above about 16% points higher, below about 11% points lower. Watch gross margin against about 44.4%, the finance chief's normal slip, and whether the gap between prices and costs narrows.
Q4 2026 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$2.31B$2.20B – $2.41B
$2.20B$2.31B$2.41B
diluted EPS
PricedIn$0.30$0.26 – $0.33
$0.26$0.30$0.33
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
The models agree on a seasonal drop of 4.8% to 7.0% and sales of $2.3B to $2.4B. Muse Wonder is lowest at $2.3B; it alone leans on the warning that 'our tariff exposure and import shipping costs may become more impactful in subsequent quarters'. Sol is highest at $2.4B, keeping fourth-quarter sales 'about 16% above last year'.
Fourth-quarter sales near $2.3B, about 5.5% below the third on holidays and winter, with earnings per share of $0.30.
Sales$2.31B$2.20B – $2.41B · +14% on Q4 2025 ($2.03B)
Diluted EPS$0.30$0.26 – $0.33 · +14% on Q4 2025 ($0.26)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The fourth quarter is Fastenal's slow season. The company says plant shutdowns around Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year, plus winter weather on building sites, hold sales back. In 2025 sales fell 5.0% from the third quarter to the fourth, and in 2024 they fell 4.5%.
The models follow that pattern. Their middle averages $2.3B, about 5.5% below their third quarter, still well above the $2.0B of the fourth quarter of 2025. Muse Wonder has the steepest drop, 7.0%; Grok and Gemini the smallest, 4.8%.
Fastenal gives no sales outlook, only goals for vending devices and capital spending, so the models build the quarter from the seasonal pattern and the year's momentum rather than a company number.
Margins dip too. The models put operating margin near 20%, down from about 21% in the third quarter, because expenses do not fall as fast as sales. In the fourth quarter of 2025 operating margin was about 19%.
Price is the swing factor. Last year's price increases are now being lapped, so their lift fades, while fuel and tariffs on newly bought inventory could keep costs climbing.
Earnings per share of $0.30 is what the year leaves once the first three quarters are counted: sales near $2.3B, operating margin near 20% and a tax rate near 24%.
What it rests on
- Fourth quarter seasonally weaker
- Holiday plant shutdowns and winter weather slow sales
The fourth quarter also tends to be more greatly affected by the Thanksgiving (October in Canada and November in the U.S.), Christmas, and New Year holiday periods, due to plant shut downs.
2025 annual report - October to December pause
- Sales climb from January to October, then pause
This stairway has several predictable landings where there is a pause in the sequential gain (i.e., April, July, and October to December), but generally speaking, climbs from January to October.
2025 annual report - Tariff costs may rise
- Lower-tariff inventory is being replaced by inventory facing new tariffs
We estimate the effect on our net income related to tariffs and import shipping costs was immaterial in the first six months of 2026; however, our tariff exposure and import shipping costs may become more impactful in subsequent quarters as our lower tariff inventory is depleted and replaced with inventory that is subject to new and expanded tariffs.
Second-quarter 2026 quarterly report - Price gap not closing
- Management does not expect the price and cost gap fully closed this half
but the trajectory is it's not something that we're expecting to be completely closed in the second half.
July 2026 earnings call - Fuel cost headwind
- Three months of fuel headwind by the second quarter, against one before
We experienced about a month of that headwind, and now we have three months of that headwind.
July 2026 earnings call
Low and high
Base $2.31B sales, $0.30 diluted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$2.20Bsales · −5% vs base
$0.26EPS · −11% vs base
Sales would fall to about $2.2B, 10.0% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.26. Holiday shutdowns would have to run longer, factory demand cool and fuel keep costs above prices. Grok goes furthest, to $0.24 a share, as the only model that lets 'Holiday shutdowns and winter weather cut the fourth quarter harder than usual.'
In the fourth quarter of 2024 sales fell 4.5% from the third and earnings per share was $0.23, the weakest quarter of the last eight.
Factory demand cools5 of 6
- Opus 5.5industrial demand turns down
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower production and customer spending
- GLM 5.3Industrial production flattens as the oil shock and high borrowing costs bite
- Gemini 3.8 FlashDeceleration in manufacturing production and non-residential construction activity
- Muse WonderDaily sales growth slows to high single digits as heavy manufacturing and construction soften
Selling prices lag fuel and supplier costs4 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolSelling prices lag supplier and fuel costs
- Grok 4.7The gap between selling prices and product and freight costs widens instead of narrowing.
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSevere gross margin compression from high diesel fuel prices and tariff-related cost pressures
- Muse WonderPrice and cost stays unfavourable by more than 40 basis points
Holiday shutdowns and winter bite harder1 of 6
- Grok 4.7Holiday shutdowns and winter weather cut the fourth quarter harder than usual.
The six lows run from $2.16B (Grok 4.7) to $2.24B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signThe mid-October 2026 third-quarter report showing daily sales growth below about 10% or gross margin under 44%.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$2.41Bsales · +4% vs base
$0.33EPS · +10% vs base
Sales would reach about $2.4B, only 1.3% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.33. Contract start-ups would have to keep adding sales through the holidays and prices catch up with costs. Sol and Grok go furthest, to $2.5B: Sol because 'Fast contract implementation and deeper penetration at major customers sustain faster growth than the base', Grok because 'Contract wins keep daily sales growth in the high teens into 2027.'
In 2025 and 2024 the fourth quarter fell 5.0% and 4.5% from the third; the high case needs a much smaller drop than either.
Contract wins keep compounding4 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster conversion of contract wins into recurring sales
- Grok 4.7Large-site and contract wins keep compounding rather than slowing as comparisons get harder.
- Opus 5.5faster volume from contract wins
- Muse WonderDaily sales growth stays mid teens through late 2026 as new orders rise
Prices catch up with costs4 of 6
- GLM 5.3Net price/cost reaches neutral by late 2026, lifting incremental margins to the mid-20s
- Muse WonderPrice and cost reaches neutrality and fuel pressure eases
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAchievement of price/cost neutrality and gross margin stabilization
- Opus 5.5price catching up with cost and tariff refunds
Expenses keep falling as a share of sales2 of 6
- Grok 4.7Hiring stays slow relative to sales, so operating expenses keep falling as a share of sales.
- Muse WonderLarge site productivity and digital sales lift selling cost leverage further
The six highs run from $2.34B (Muse Wonder) to $2.48B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signThe mid-October 2026 third-quarter report showing daily sales growth above about 17% and gross margin near 44.6%.
Watch
The third-quarter report in mid-October 2026 for any word on October and the holidays, then the fourth-quarter report in mid-January 2027. A smaller drop than about 5.5% from the third quarter points higher; fuel costs and tariffed inventory squeezing margin point lower.