Q4 2026 · the quarter FAST reports
Sales
PricedIn$2.32B$2.22B – $2.40B
$2.22B$2.32B$2.40B
diluted EPS
PricedIn$0.31$0.27 – $0.34
$0.27$0.31$0.34
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All six models put fourth-quarter sales at $2.3B and earnings per share at $0.30 to $0.31; they differ mainly in range. GLM, lowest in the middle, expects about 13% growth because the quarter 'laps a 310-340 basis point pricing quarter.' Gemini, highest, holds gross margin 'around 44.60%' as 'price-cost approaches neutrality.' Muse Wonder's range is widest: its low has 'Gross margin falls more than sixty basis points year over year'; its high has 'Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps.'
Fourth-quarter sales should dip to about $2.3B on the usual holiday slowdown, with earnings per share near $0.31.
Sales$2.32B$2.22B – $2.40B · +14% on Q4 2025 ($2.03B)
Diluted EPS$0.31$0.27 – $0.34 · +18% on Q4 2025 ($0.26)
Investment and cash generation
Base case
Capital spending$128M
Free cash flow$289M
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
Fastenal, a supplier of fasteners and factory supplies, sold $2.5B in the third quarter, with daily sales up 15.5% from a year earlier. The company credits share gains with larger customers, price increases and broad demand. Earnings per share reached $0.35, ahead of our forecast of $0.34.
The momentum is cooling at the edges. September grew 14.4%, below July and August, and management says the boost from last year's price increases is starting to fade. Price added about 2.4 points of growth in the third quarter, down from earlier in the year.
Every model expects sales to fall about 6.0% from the third quarter to $2.3B. That fits the past pattern: the fourth quarter fell 5.0% from the third in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, as holidays and winter slow factories and building sites.
On margins, the models drop a one-off timing gain that lifted third-quarter gross margin, then apply the usual seasonal dip, taking operating margin to about 20%. Last year's fourth quarter carried a timing drag that should not repeat, which offsets the pull from lower-margin large customers.
The models barely differ in the middle: every one sits at $2.3B. They differ on how wide the range is. Muse Wonder allows a high of $2.5B and a low of $2.2B; GLM keeps its whole range at $2.3B.
Earnings per share of about $0.31 come from sales of $2.3B, a gross margin near 44% and an operating margin near 20%, taxed at the company's stated 24.6%, with the share count almost unchanged.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$2.08B+9%
Q3 2025$2.13B+12%
Q4 2025$2.03B+11%
Q1 2026$2.20B+12%
Q2 2026$2.39B+15%
Q3 2026$2.46B+15%
Q4 2026$2.32B+14%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Third-quarter daily sales growth
- 15.5%, led by share gains with larger customers
Daily sales increased 15.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by share gains with larger customers, pricing actions, and broad-based demand across core end markets.
October 2026 earnings release - September growth
- 14.4%, below July and August, as last year's price increases are lapped
September still was a strong month at 14-4, but it was below July and August. And we're starting to lapse in pricing
October 2026 earnings call - Timing gain not repeating
- About 20 basis points of third-quarter gross margin was timing
About 20 basis points of this 40 reflect timing across these items and should not be assumed to continue in the underlying gross margin run rate.
October 2026 earnings call - Last year's timing drag
- 50 basis points of one-off gross margin drag in late 2025
And it was a negative 50 basis points the way we described it last year.
October 2026 earnings call - Ongoing tax rate
- About 24.6%
We believe our ongoing tax rate, absent any discrete tax items or broader changes to tax law, will be approximately 24.6%.
October 2026 earnings release
Low and high
Base $2.32B sales, $0.31 diluted EPS: the story above.
$128MCapital spending
$289MFree cash flow
Cash walk not supplied by every model.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$2.22Bsales · −4% vs base
$0.27EPS · −12% vs base
Sales would have to fall to about $2.2B, 4.2% below the base and 9.9% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.27, 12% lower. That needs September's slowdown to deepen as price increases fade, fuel costs to widen the gap between prices and costs, and holiday shutdowns to run deeper than usual. Sol and Muse Wonder go furthest on earnings, to $0.26: Muse Wonder adds gross margin falling more than sixty basis points with overhead savings fading, and Sol lets operating margins 'retreat toward 18%'.
Fourth-quarter sales fell 5.0% from the third quarter in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024, so a dip is normal; a drop near 9.9% would be about twice as steep.
September's slowdown deepens as the price boost fades3 of 6
- Opus 5.5price increases fading while fuel costs stay high
- Grok 4.7Price increases fail to cover costs once last year's increases are lapped
- Muse WonderDaily sales growth falls to high single digits as manufacturing and construction soften
Fuel costs widen the gap between prices and costs3 of 6
- Gemini 3.8 FlashElevated freight and fuel costs compressing distribution margins while customer mix headwinds persist
- Grok 4.7Fuel and oil stay expensive and slow factory output
- GLM 5.3Energy shock and higher rates stall manufacturing activity (PMI back below 50), ending the market tailwind
Overhead savings fade2 of 6
- Muse WonderSelling, general and administrative leverage fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high
- GPT-6.1 SolLoss of labor and occupancy cost leverage
Deeper holiday shutdowns1 of 6
- Grok 4.7Deeper holiday shutdowns and a soft construction season
The six lows run from $2.18B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $2.25B (GLM 5.3).
First signOctober daily sales, published in early November 2026, growing well under 10% from a year earlier.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$2.40Bsales · +4% vs base
$0.34EPS · +10% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $2.4B, 3.8% above the base and only 2.4% below the third quarter, with earnings per share near $0.34, 10% higher. Large-customer wins and data-center work would keep growth in the mid-teens, prices would catch up with costs, and overhead would keep growing slower than sales. Muse Wonder goes furthest, to $2.5B and $0.36, because it holds that 'Daily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps', a bigger size on growth than the others' near 14%.
Third-quarter operating margin reached 21.5%, with overhead at 23.3% of sales against 24.6% a year earlier, so extra sales now turn into profit quickly.
Large-customer wins keep growth in the mid-teens3 of 6
- Muse WonderDaily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps
- Grok 4.7Data-center construction stays strong and share gains stay in the mid-teens
- Opus 5.5accelerating large-customer and data-center wins
Prices catch up with costs3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Price versus cost returns to neutral
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSuccessful price realization outpacing supplier cost inflation, returning price/cost to positive territory
- GLM 5.3Price/cost flips to a tailwind as pricing catches up with fuel and product inflation
Overhead keeps growing slower than sales3 of 6
- Opus 5.5stronger overhead leverage
- GPT-6.1 SolSales growth continues to outpace hiring and facility costs
- Grok 4.7Strong leverage on selling costs
The six highs run from $2.33B (GLM 5.3) to $2.45B (Muse Wonder).
First signOctober daily sales, published in early November 2026, holding at or above 15% growth.
Watch
Monthly sales reports in early November, December and January show whether daily growth holds near 14% or slips under 10%. The fourth-quarter release in mid-January 2027 shows whether gross margin holds near 44% and whether the gap between prices and costs keeps closing.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$2.46B$2.33B – $2.58B
$2.33B$2.46B$2.58B
diluted EPS
PricedIn$0.33$0.29 – $0.37
$0.29$0.33$0.37
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All models expect a rebound and differ on its size. Muse Wonder is lowest at $2.4B, cautious because 'The device signings goal was cut by one thousand units' and 'embedded growth is not accelerating.' Sol is highest at $2.5B, rebounding 'about 13% above its year-earlier sales' as customer spending supplies 'roughly 8 to 10 percentage points of annual growth.' Muse Wonder's earnings range, $0.27 to $0.39, is widest: its low has 'Selling, general and administrative leverage fades'; its high has 'Selling expense grows well below sales'.
Sales should rebound about 6.3% from the fourth quarter to $2.5B in early 2027, with earnings per share near $0.33.
Sales$2.46B$2.33B – $2.58B · +12% on Q1 2026 ($2.20B)
Diluted EPS$0.33$0.29 – $0.37 · +11% on Q1 2026 ($0.30)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The first quarter usually rebounds from the holiday lull: sales rose 8.6% from the fourth quarter in 2026 and 7.4% in 2025. The models expect a smaller step this time, about 6.3%, to $2.5B, because the boost from last year's price increases will largely have been lapped.
Management told investors the most important numbers are moving into the fourth quarter and especially the first. It expects share gains with large customers to continue, and it holds itself to an internal goal of 10 percentage points of growth a year, which it says is not guidance.
Most models see price adding about 1 point of growth in 2027. Share gains, with contract customers growing near 19%, and data-center work, which management puts at four to five points of growth, have to carry the rest.
Earnings per share rise about 9.2% from the fourth quarter to $0.33 as sales recover over a mostly fixed cost base. The models split on how much: Sol sees 13%, while GLM sees 6.7% and Muse Wonder 6.5%.
About $0.33 comes from sales of $2.5B at an operating margin near 21%, a 24.6% tax rate and a nearly flat share count.
What it rests on
- Management's focus
- The fourth quarter and especially the first quarter matter most
the most important numbers are moving into Q4 and more importantly into Q1
October 2026 earnings call - Internal growth goal
- 10 percentage points of growth every year, not guidance
we expect our success, we think, in any environment should be 10 percentage point top line improvement each and every year. That's what we hold ourselves accountable for internally, but that's not a forecaster guidance either.
October 2026 earnings call - Data-center contribution
- About four to five points of growth
Right now, internally, we look at about four to five percentage points of our growth.
October 2026 earnings call, chief executive - Third-quarter price contribution
- About 240 basis points of growth
The impact of product pricing on net sales in the third quarter of 2026 was an increase of approximately 240 basis points
October 2026 earnings release - Customer mix on margin
- 50 to 60 basis points of gross margin a year
you would on a year-over-year basis typically expect a starting point of a 50 to 60 basis point headwind on our gross margin.
October 2026 earnings call, finance chief
Low and high
Base $2.46B sales, $0.33 diluted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$2.33Bsales · −5% vs base
$0.29EPS · −12% vs base
Sales would have to slip to about $2.3B, 5.1% below the base and only 0.9% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $0.29, 12% lower and 4.0% below the fourth quarter. That means almost no seasonal rebound: factory demand stalling under costly fuel and high rates, price increases ending before new volume replaces them, and overhead savings fading. Muse Wonder goes furthest on earnings, to $0.27, because it combines overhead leverage that 'fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high' with gross margin falling more than sixty basis points.
In the last two years the first quarter rose 8.6% and 7.4% from the fourth; a rebound under 1% would break that pattern.
Factory demand stalls under costly fuel and high rates4 of 6
- Grok 4.7Fuel and oil stay expensive and slow factory output
- GLM 5.3Energy shock and higher rates stall manufacturing activity
- Gemini 3.8 FlashMacroeconomic slowdown in US industrial production leading to industrial plant volume curtailments
- Opus 5.5slower factory activity and construction
Price boost ends before volume replaces it3 of 6
- Opus 5.5price increases fading while fuel costs stay high
- GLM 5.3The tariff-driven pricing wave reverses as IEEPA tariffs are struck down and refunds flow, taking pricing to zero or negative
- GPT-6.1 SolFewer new contracts and less spending at existing sites
Overhead savings fade2 of 6
- Muse WonderSelling, general and administrative leverage fades as bonuses and investment spending stay high
- GPT-6.1 SolLoss of labor and occupancy cost leverage
The six lows run from $2.28B (Muse Wonder) to $2.38B (Gemini 3.8 Flash).
First signDecember daily sales, published in early January 2027, growing well under 10% from a year earlier.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$2.58Bsales · +5% vs base
$0.37EPS · +12% vs base
Sales would have to reach about $2.6B, 4.7% above the base and 11% above the fourth quarter, with earnings per share near $0.37, 12% higher. Contract wins would need to ramp faster, data-center and factory investment stay strong, and prices return to covering costs early in 2027. Sol and Muse Wonder go furthest, to $0.39: Sol assumes 'Faster rollout of large contracts and additional spending at existing sites', a bigger size on share gains than the others, and Muse Wonder keeps daily sales 'in the mid teens'.
Contract customers grew 18.8% in the third quarter and make up more than three-quarters of sales, so faster rollouts move the total quickly.
Contract wins ramp faster at large sites3 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster rollout of large contracts and additional spending at existing sites
- Muse WonderDaily sales stays in the mid teens on faster large account ramps
- Opus 5.5accelerating large-customer and data-center wins
Prices cover costs early in 20273 of 6
- Muse WonderPrice cost turns neutral in early 2027 and sourcing benefits persist
- GLM 5.3tariff refunds return in early 2027
- Grok 4.7Price versus cost returns to neutral
Factory orders turn into production3 of 6
- Grok 4.7Factory orders and a firm purchasing-managers' reading convert into higher production
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAccelerated industrial activity and manufacturing capex cycle boosting core fastener and direct materials demand
- GPT-6.1 SolSustained data-center and industrial investment
The six highs run from $2.50B (GLM 5.3) to $2.65B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signJanuary 2027 daily sales, published in early February, growing faster than the third quarter's 15.5%.
Watch
The fourth-quarter release in mid-January 2027 should say whether the gap between prices and costs is closing. Monthly sales for January and February 2027 show whether the rebound runs near 6.3% or stalls; the first-quarter release in April 2027 settles it.