Q4 2026 · the quarter JPM reports
Sales
PricedIn$50.6B$47.7B – $53.3B
$47.7B$50.6B$53.3B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$5.71$4.72 – $6.58
$4.72$5.71$6.58
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
All six put middle sales between $49.5B and $51.3B. Sol has the widest range, $47.0B to $55.5B, and Opus and Muse Wonder assume the deepest drops in trading.
Fourth-quarter sales of about $50.6B, roughly level with the third quarter, as guided interest income offsets a seasonal dip in trading.
Sales$50.6B$47.7B – $53.3B · +10% on Q4 2025 ($45.8B)
Adjusted EPS$5.71$4.72 – $6.58 · +9% on Q4 2025 ($5.23)
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
JPMorgan reported third-quarter sales of $50.2B and adjusted earnings per share of $5.75. Trading revenue was $10.3B, up 15%, and average loans grew 10% on a year earlier. The quarter included a securities loss, which the company leaves out of adjusted earnings.
For the fourth quarter, the company guided net interest income to about $28B, expenses to about $27.5B and the card loss rate to about 3.2%. It does not guide trading. The finance chief reminded listeners that trading usually falls significantly from the third quarter to the fourth.
All six AI models take the interest income and expense guidance as given. Their middle sales estimates run from $49.5B (Muse Wonder) to $51.3B (Sol) and average $50.6B, about 0.8% above the third quarter. They differ on trading. Muse Wonder assumes a full seasonal drop, while Grok, GLM and Sol assume a milder dip after Jamie Dimon said he expects a smaller seasonal decline than usual.
Slower buybacks keep the share count nearly flat. Credit costs are expected to edge up to about $2.9B, with a modest addition to reserves as lending grows.
Adjusted earnings per share average $5.71, ranging from $5.45 (Opus) to $5.92 (Sol). The estimates rest on expenses near $27.5B, provisions near $2.9B, a tax rate near 23% and a share count that barely shrinks.
Sales by quarter
Q2 2025$44.9B−11%
Q3 2025$46.4B+9%
Q4 2025$45.8B+7%
Q1 2026$49.8B+10%
Q2 2026$57.3B+28%
Q3 2026$50.2B+8%
Q4 2026$50.6B+10%
Each percent is on the same quarter a year earlier. The last row is the models' forecast.
The quarter forecast, line by line
The lines as the company's statement shows them. The forecast columns are the average of the models, line by line. Sales growth is the change on the same quarter a year earlier. Earnings per share is the headline's: the company's own for the reported quarter, and for a forecast quarter worked out from the averaged lines with the company's adjustments.
What it rests on
- Interest income guidance
- About $28B for the quarter, $25.5B of it outside trading
We expect fourth quarter NIIX markets to be approximately $25.5 billion and fourth quarter total NII to be about $28 billion.
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Expense guidance
- About $27.5B for the fourth quarter
On expense, we expect the fourth quarter to be about $27.5 billion
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Card loss rate
- About 3.2% for the year
we continue to expect the card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.2%
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Third-quarter trading
- $10.3B, up 15%, led by stock trading
Markets revenue was $10.3 billion, up 15%, predominantly driven by higher Equity Markets revenue.
Third-quarter earnings release - Chief executive on trading
- Expects a smaller seasonal decline than usual
I think the fourth quarter will have not the same seasonal decline, personally.
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Buybacks
- Reduced in the third quarter
In line with our hierarchy, we reduced share repurchases this quarter.
Third-quarter earnings release
Low and high
Base $50.6B sales, $5.71 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$47.7Bsales · −6% vs base
$4.72EPS · −17% vs base
Sales would fall to about $47.7B, 5.0% below the third quarter, and earnings per share would be near $4.72. For that, trading would have to fall well beyond the usual seasonal dip and deal activity would have to stall after slowing in late September. Credit costs would also have to rise as higher rates and fuel prices weigh on card and business borrowers. Grok and Sol go furthest, with earnings per share of $4.25 and $4.30.
Fourth-quarter sales have fallen before: in 2025 they came in 1.4% below the third quarter. The finance chief said deal activity slowed somewhat in the second half of September.
Trading and deal fees fall more than usual6 of 6
- Opus 5.5trading and investment banking revenue falling back
- GPT-6.1 SolWeaker trading, deal fees and investment-management fees
- Grok 4.7Markets and investment-banking revenue fall as client activity cools
- GLM 5.3Markets revenue falls more than the normal seasonal decline
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSharper seasonal decline in trading and investment banking revenues
- Muse WonderMuch weaker Markets and investment banking revenue than a normal seasonal decline
Card and business credit costs rise6 of 6
- Opus 5.5credit costs rising with higher rates and energy prices
- GPT-6.1 SolHigher consumer and business loan losses
- Grok 4.7Card and wholesale credit costs rise as borrowers feel higher rates and fuel prices
- GLM 5.3Card net charge-offs rise above 3.5% and wholesale reserve builds continue
- Gemini 3.8 FlashHigher credit provisioning driven by consumer deterioration or commercial defaults
- Muse WonderA sharp rise in provision for credit losses above the recent two to three billion dollar quarterly range
Expenses do not fall with revenue3 of 6
- Opus 5.5expenses that do not flex down
- GPT-6.1 SolLimited ability to cut investment spending quickly
- Grok 4.7Expenses stay high because hiring and technology spending do not flex down
The six lows run from $47.0B (GPT-6.1 Sol) to $49.3B (GLM 5.3).
First signFourth-quarter trading revenue well below last year's $8.2B in the report due in mid-January 2027.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$53.3Bsales · +5% vs base
$6.58EPS · +15% vs base
Sales would reach about $53.3B, 6.2% above the third quarter, and earnings per share would be near $6.58. For that, trading would have to hold near the third quarter's $10.3B, the pipeline of deals would have to turn into fees, and deposit costs would have to rise slowly as rates climb. Sol's high case is $55.5B, with earnings per share of $7.50.
Trading has run at a record pace this year. Second-quarter sales reached $57.3B, though that figure included a one-time gain on Visa shares.
Trading holds near this year's pace6 of 6
- Opus 5.5trading revenue staying high
- GPT-6.1 SolSustained demand for trading and financing
- Grok 4.7Markets and financing revenue stay near the elevated 2026 pace
- GLM 5.3Markets revenue holding near third-quarter levels instead of falling seasonally
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAccelerating investment banking fee recovery and strong markets performance
- Muse WonderMarkets revenue holding up far better than a normal third-to-fourth quarter seasonal decline
Deposit costs lag rate hikes, lifting interest income6 of 6
- Opus 5.5deposit costs rising slowly as rates climb
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster lending and deposit growth with favorable pricing
- Grok 4.7Deposit rates rise less than modeled, so net interest income beats the central case
- GLM 5.3Net interest income exceeding the central case as rate hikes lift asset yields faster than deposit costs
- Gemini 3.8 FlashHigher than modeled asset sensitivity and sticky noninterest-bearing deposit balances
- Muse WonderNet interest income above the guided fourth-quarter and 2027 central-case levels on faster loan and deposit growth
Credit losses stay low4 of 6
- Opus 5.5low credit losses
- GPT-6.1 SolRevenue growth outpaces expenses while credit remains healthy
- Grok 4.7Card charge-offs stay near the recent low and reserve builds stay small
- GLM 5.3Benign credit with card net charge-offs near 3.2%
The six highs run from $51.5B (Muse Wonder) to $55.5B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signFourth-quarter trading revenue near $10B in the report due in mid-January 2027.
Watch
The fourth-quarter report in mid-January 2027. Trading above last year's $8.2B and a card loss rate near 3.2% would point higher. Trading well below that, a loss rate above 3.5% or another securities loss would point lower.
Q1 2027 · the quarter after
Sales
PricedIn$52.6B$48.8B – $56.2B
$48.8B$52.6B$56.2B
adjusted EPS
PricedIn$6.13$5.04 – $7.17
$5.04$6.13$7.17
Middlethe forecast80% range1 in 10 chance below this bar, 1 in 10 above it. These are the low and high printed by each number.
Five models put middle sales between $52.4B and $54.5B. Muse Wonder alone expects a decline, to $48.8B, with earnings per share of $5.35 against Gemini's $6.83.
First-quarter 2027 sales of about $52.6B, as trading recovers and the rate hikes markets expect lift interest income.
Sales$52.6B$48.8B – $56.2B · +6% on Q1 2026 ($49.8B)
Adjusted EPS$6.13$5.04 – $7.17
Investment and cash generation
Capital spending: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: not supplied by every model
Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending.
The company has not yet given an outlook for the first quarter of 2027; it will update its guidance with fourth-quarter results in January. The models build the quarter from three things: the company's $107B central case for 2027 interest income outside trading, the usual first-quarter recovery in trading, and the year's heaviest expenses, which come from payroll taxes.
The finance chief said about a quarter of the expected rise in interest income outside trading comes from the rate hikes markets expect: one in December and two in the first half of 2027. The rest comes from continued growth in deposits and loans.
Five models expect middle sales of $52.4B to $54.5B, with Gemini highest. Muse Wonder stands apart at $48.8B, 1.5% below its own fourth-quarter estimate, because it assumes 2026's outsized gains do not repeat. The average, $52.6B, would be 4.0% above the fourth quarter.
Expenses rise to about $28.3B on average and provisions stay near $2.9B. Opus expects share-vesting benefits to lower the first-quarter tax rate, as they have in past first quarters.
Adjusted earnings per share average $6.13, about 7.4% above the fourth quarter. Higher trading and interest income lift earnings, against expenses near $28.3B, a tax rate near 22% and a nearly flat share count.
What it rests on
- 2027 interest income case
- About $107B outside trading
you'll note we gave you a central case for 2027 NIIX markets of approximately $107 billion
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Share from rate hikes
- About a quarter of the $5B rise
That $5 billion, probably about a quarter of that, I would say, is related to the yield curve.
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Hikes markets expect
- One in December, two in early 2027
I think there's one in December and then two through the first half of the year.
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - 2027 expenses
- Close to the market's estimate of about $114B
So we see the consensus right now for 2027 expenses being around $114 billion, and our current preliminary read isn't too far from that.
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026 - Deal activity
- Slowed in the second half of September
we did see a little bit of that slowdown in the second half of September
Third-quarter earnings call, October 2026
Low and high
Base $52.6B sales, $6.13 adjusted EPS: the story above.
Lowabout 1 chance in 10 of worse
$48.8Bsales · −7% vs base
$5.04EPS · −18% vs base
Sales would fall to about $48.8B, 3.6% below the fourth quarter, and earnings per share would be near $5.04. For that, trading would have to fail to recover and the rate hikes markets expect would have to not arrive. Deposits would also move into higher-paying products, and credit costs would rise. Muse Wonder's low case for sales is $46.0B, and Grok's low case for earnings per share is $4.40.
First-quarter sales have risen in recent years: by 5.9% on the quarter before in 2025 and by 8.8% in 2026.
Trading and deal fees fail to recover6 of 6
- Opus 5.5trading and investment banking revenue falling back
- GPT-6.1 SolWeaker trading, deal fees and investment-management fees
- Grok 4.7Markets and investment-banking revenue fall as client activity cools
- GLM 5.3Markets revenue falls more than the normal seasonal decline
- Gemini 3.8 FlashSharper seasonal decline in trading and investment banking revenues
- Muse WonderMuch weaker Markets and investment banking revenue than a normal seasonal decline
Card and business credit costs rise6 of 6
- Opus 5.5credit costs rising with higher rates and energy prices
- GPT-6.1 SolHigher consumer and business loan losses
- Grok 4.7Card and wholesale credit costs rise as borrowers feel higher rates and fuel prices
- GLM 5.3Card net charge-offs rise above 3.5% and wholesale reserve builds continue
- Gemini 3.8 FlashHigher credit provisioning driven by consumer deterioration or commercial defaults
- Muse WonderA sharp rise in provision for credit losses above the recent two to three billion dollar quarterly range
Deposit costs rise and interest income misses4 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolSlower deposit and loan growth with higher deposit costs
- Grok 4.7Deposit rates reprice faster than assets, so net interest income misses the central case
- GLM 5.3Deposit migration into CDs and premium deposits raises funding costs
- Gemini 3.8 FlashIncreased deposit competition compressing net interest margin
The six lows run from $46.0B (Muse Wonder) to $50.5B (Opus 5.5).
First signAn updated 2027 interest income outlook in January 2027 that falls below the $107B central case.
Highabout 1 chance in 10 of better
$56.2Bsales · +7% vs base
$7.17EPS · +17% vs base
Sales would reach about $56.2B, 11% above the fourth quarter, and earnings per share would be near $7.17. For that, trading would have to recover strongly and interest income would have to beat the central case as deposit costs lag rate hikes. Inflows and deal fees would also have to stay strong. Sol's high case is $59.5B, with earnings per share of $7.85.
Sales in the first quarter of 2026 were $49.8B, 8.8% above the quarter before.
Deposit costs lag rate hikes, lifting interest income6 of 6
- Opus 5.5deposit costs rising slowly as rates climb
- GPT-6.1 SolFaster lending and deposit growth with favorable pricing
- Grok 4.7Deposit rates rise less than modeled, so net interest income beats the central case
- GLM 5.3Net interest income exceeding the central case as rate hikes lift asset yields faster than deposit costs
- Gemini 3.8 FlashHigher than modeled asset sensitivity and sticky noninterest-bearing deposit balances
- Muse WonderNet interest income above the guided fourth-quarter and 2027 central-case levels on faster loan and deposit growth
Trading recovers to this year's strong pace4 of 6
- Opus 5.5trading revenue staying high
- GPT-6.1 SolSustained demand for trading and financing
- Grok 4.7Markets and financing revenue stay near the elevated 2026 pace
- Gemini 3.8 FlashAccelerating investment banking fee recovery and strong markets performance
Strong inflows and deal fees lift fee revenue4 of 6
- GPT-6.1 SolStrong deal completions, investment inflows and asset prices
- Gemini 3.8 FlashContinued outperformance in client asset inflows and wealth management revenues
- Muse WonderStrong asset and wealth management inflows and high market levels lifting fee revenue
- GLM 5.3The investment banking pipeline converting as volatility drives hedging and financing needs
The six highs run from $51.0B (Muse Wonder) to $59.5B (GPT-6.1 Sol).
First signAn updated 2027 interest income outlook in January 2027 that rises above $107B outside trading.
Watch
In January 2027 the company will update its $107B case and give a 2027 expense outlook. A higher case, fast deposit growth and trading near $10B would point higher. Deposits moving into higher-paying products or no December rate hike would point lower.